The Effect of the Dollar, Euro, and Sterling Exchange on the Tourism Index in the Turkish Economy
Abstract
The exchange rate expresses the value of the national currency in terms of foreign currency. While foreign currency is an important investment tool in the portfolio of all kinds of investors in our modern world, it is also one of the most important elements of international trade. In particular, the impact of exchange rates on the tourism sector cannot be ignored. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between monthly data and BIST tourism index (XTRZM) for the period January 2011 – July 2022 and exchange rates (US Dollar exchange rate, Euro exchange rate and Sterling exchange rate) by using the time series process. Whether there is a relationship between the variables was analyzed by econometric analysis method. In the study, in which the Granger model was applied, it was determined that there was a causal relationship between all four variables. A bidirectional relationship was found only between dollar and sterling exchange rate changes. A unilateral causality relationship was found between all other variables.
References
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[32] Özmen, M. 2000. Farklı Döviz Kuru Rejimleri Altında Hisse Senetleri Fiyatları ile Döviz Kurları Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi (Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes). Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (Çukurova University Journal of Social Sciences Institute), 16(1): 519-538. (in Turkish).
[33] Özmen, M., Karlılar, S., & Karlılar, G. 2012. Türkiye için döviz kuru, faiz ve enflasyonun hisse senedi getirileri üzerine etkileri (The effects of exchange rate, interest and inflation on stock returns for Turkey). Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi (Journal of Çukurova University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences), 21(1): 107-120. (in Turkish).
[34] Polat, M., Alptürk, Y., & Gürsoy, S. 2021. Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2): 77-84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.926617
[35] Rodríguez, C., Florido, C. & Jacob, M. 2020. Circular Economy Contributions to the Tourism Sector: A Critical Literature Review. Sustainability, 12(11): 1-27.
[36] Soyaslan, E. 2019. Döviz kuru ile BIST turizm endeksi arasındaki ilişkinin analizi (Analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and BIST tourism index). OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 12: 772-793. (In Turkish). DOI: https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.585398
[37] Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. 2019. Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75: 323-327. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
[38] Yetiz, F., Süsay, A., & Ünal, A. E. 2022. Otel-restoran kredileri ile BIST turizm endeksinin psikolojik ve ekonomik yansımaları: Türkiye örneği (Psychological and economic reflections of hotel-restaurant loans and BIST tourism index: The case of Turkey). Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 9(1): 187-204. DOI:https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR926459 (in Turkish)
[2] Basegmez, H., & Cekici, E. 2017. Modelling of Bist Tourism Index’s Trading Volume with Stable Paretian Distributions. PressAcademia Procedia, 6(1): 11-18. DOI: http://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.738
[3] Bayir, M., & Abdioğlu, N. 2020. The effect of interest rate corridor on Turkish financial markets. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(5): 3244-3263. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.747107
[4] Bernanke, B. S., & Kuttner, K. N. 2005. What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?. The Journal of finance, 60(3): 1221-1257. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00760.x
[5] Bordo, M. D., & Landon-Lane, J. 2013. Does expansionary monetary policy cause asset price booms; some historical and empirical evidence (No. w19585). National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI:https://doi.org/10.3386/w19585
[6] Boyacıoğlu, M. A., & Çürük, D. 2016. Döviz kuru değişimlerinin hisse senedi getirisine etkisi: Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksi üzerine bir uygulama (The effect of exchange rate changes on stock returns: An application on Borsa Istanbul 100 index). Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi (Journal of Accounting and Finance), (70): 143-156. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.396686 (in Turkish).
[7] Ceylan, S., & Şahin, B. Y. 2015. Hisse senedi fiyatları ve döviz kuru ilişkisi (Relationship between stock prices and exchange rate). The Journal of Academic Social Science Studies, 37: 399-408. (in Turkish).
[8] Chan, F. & C. Lim 2011. Tourism stock performance and macro factors. 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. 12-16 December 2011, Perth, Australia.
[9] Charemza, W. W., & Deadman, D. F. 1997. New Directions in Econometric Practice. UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
[10] Coşkun, Y. & Öznur-Ümit, A. 2016. Türkiye’de hisse senedi ile döviz, mevduat, altın, konut piyasaları arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkilerinin analizi (Analysis of cointegration relations between stocks and foreign exchange, deposit, gold and housing markets in Turkey). Business and Economics Research Journal, 7(1): 47-69. (in Turkish).
[11] Demir, E., & Ersan, O. 2018. The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock returns of Turkish tourism companies. Current Issues in Tourism, 21(8): 847-855. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1217195
[12] Demir, E., Alıcı, Z. A., & Chi Keung Lau, M. 2017. Macro explanatory factors of Turkish tourism companies’ stock returns. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(4): 370-380. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2016.1271814
[13] Demirkale, Ö., & Can, E. N. 2021. Makroekonomik değişkenlerin BIST turizm endeksi üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi (Examining the effect of macroeconomic variables on BIST tourism index). Sakarya Üniversitesi İşletme Enstitüsü Dergisi (Sakarya University Journal of Business Institute), 3(1): 175-180. DOI:https://doi.org/10.47542/sauied.906256 (in Turkish)
[14] Doğukanlı, H., Özmen, M., & Yücel, E. 2010. İMKB'de Sektörel Açıdan Döviz Kuru Duyarlılığının İncelenmesi (Investigation of Exchange Rate Sensitivity in ISE from a Sectoral Perspective). Journal of the Cukurova University Institute of Social Sciences, 19(3): 63-86. (in Turkish)
[15] Eyüboğlu, S., & Eyüboğlu, K. 2018. Borsa İstanbul sektör endeksleri ile döviz kurları arasındaki ilişkilerin incelenmesi: ARDL modeli (Examining the relations between Borsa İstanbul sector indices and exchange rates: ARDL model). Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi (Journal of Ömer Halisdemir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences), 11(1): 8-28. DOI:https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.332352 (in Turkish)
[16] Ganev, G. Y., Molnar, K., Rybinski, K., & Wozniak, P. 2002. Transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe. CASE Report No. 52, Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1432336
[17] Granger, C. W. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3): 424-438. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
[18] Günay, F., & Bayraktaroğlu, E. 2022. Analysis of the Effects of the Central Bank’s Interest Announcements on Tourism Index Returns. Sosyoekonomi, 30(51): 91-118. DOI:https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2022.01.05
[19] Hamilton, J. D. 1994. Time Series Analysis. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
[20] Huseynli, B. 2022a. The Role of Renewable Energy in the Development of the Tourism Sector. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 11(6): 1924-1936. DOI:https://doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720.333
[21] Huseynli, B. 2022b. A Research on Econometric Analysis of Tourism Sector, Economic Growth and Unemployment Indicators in Turkey. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 13(6): 1629-1636.
[22] Huseynli, B. (2022c). The Contribution of the Number of Tourists to the Economic Growth of Egypt: An Econometric Analysis. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 11(4): 1350-1361. DOI:https://doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720.295
[23] İşcan, E. 2011. Döviz Kurları ve Hisse Senedi Piyasası Arasındaki Etkileşim (Interaction Between Exchange Rates and Stock Market.). Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi (Electronic Journal of Social Sciences), 10(35): 237-251. (in Turkish).
[24] Karaca, S., & Özen, E. 2017. Financial failure estimation of companies in BIST tourism index by Altman Model and its effect on market prices. BRAND. Broad Research in Accounting, Negotiation, and Distribution, 8(2): 11-23.
[25] Kendirli, S., & Çankaya, M. 2016. Döviz kuru ve enflasyonun BİST banka endeksi üzerindeki etkisi (The effect of exchange rate and inflation on BIST bank index). MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi (MANAS Journal of Social Studies), 5(3): 215-227. (in Turkish).
[26] Keskin Benli, Y. 2015. Döviz Kuru ile Borsa İstanbul 100 ve Sektör Endeksleri Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi (Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Borsa İstanbul 100 and Sector Indices). Uluslararası Hakemli Beşeri ve Akademik Bilimler Dergisi (International Refereed Journal of Humanities and Academic Sciences), 4(12): 55-72. (in Turkish).
[27] Kiraci, K. 2019. BİST turizm endeksi ile dolar kuru, dolar endeksi ve petrol fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin ampirik analizi (Empirical analysis of the causality relationship between BIST tourism index and dollar rate, dollar index and oil prices). Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi (Journal of Erciyes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences), 53: 73-86. (In Turkish). DOI:https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.462790
[28] Nayomi, G., & Gnanapala, W. A. 2015. Socio-economic impacts on local community through tourism development with special reference to Heritance Kandalama. Tourism, Leisure and Global Change, 2(1): 57-73.
[29] Özcan, C.C. 2015. Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirinin Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi (Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Income in Turkey: Panel Data Analysis). Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (Çukurova University Journal of Social Sciences Institute), 24(1): 203-220. (in Turkish).
[30] Özçalık, M., & Özçalık, S. G. 2020. Turizm endeksinde döviz kuru etkisi: BIST’te bir uygulama (Exchange rate effect on tourism index: An application in BIST). Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi (Journal of Economics, Policy and Finance Studies), 5(2): 374-388. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.723348 (in Turkish)
[31] Özçiçek, Ö. 2007. Türkiye'de döviz kuru getirisi ve hisse senedi endeks getirileri oynaklıkları arası simetrik ve asimetrik ilişki (Symmetrical and asymmetrical relationship between exchange rate return and stock index returns volatility in Turkey). İMKB Dergisi, 10(37): 1-11. (in Turkish).
[32] Özmen, M. 2000. Farklı Döviz Kuru Rejimleri Altında Hisse Senetleri Fiyatları ile Döviz Kurları Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi (Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes). Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (Çukurova University Journal of Social Sciences Institute), 16(1): 519-538. (in Turkish).
[33] Özmen, M., Karlılar, S., & Karlılar, G. 2012. Türkiye için döviz kuru, faiz ve enflasyonun hisse senedi getirileri üzerine etkileri (The effects of exchange rate, interest and inflation on stock returns for Turkey). Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi (Journal of Çukurova University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences), 21(1): 107-120. (in Turkish).
[34] Polat, M., Alptürk, Y., & Gürsoy, S. 2021. Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2): 77-84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.926617
[35] Rodríguez, C., Florido, C. & Jacob, M. 2020. Circular Economy Contributions to the Tourism Sector: A Critical Literature Review. Sustainability, 12(11): 1-27.
[36] Soyaslan, E. 2019. Döviz kuru ile BIST turizm endeksi arasındaki ilişkinin analizi (Analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and BIST tourism index). OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 12: 772-793. (In Turkish). DOI: https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.585398
[37] Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. 2019. Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75: 323-327. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
[38] Yetiz, F., Süsay, A., & Ünal, A. E. 2022. Otel-restoran kredileri ile BIST turizm endeksinin psikolojik ve ekonomik yansımaları: Türkiye örneği (Psychological and economic reflections of hotel-restaurant loans and BIST tourism index: The case of Turkey). Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 9(1): 187-204. DOI:https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR926459 (in Turkish)
Published
2023-06-30
How to Cite
AHMADOV, Fariz; HUSEYNLI, Nigar; HUSEYNLI, Bahman.
The Effect of the Dollar, Euro, and Sterling Exchange on the Tourism Index in the Turkish Economy.
Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, [S.l.], v. 14, n. 4, p. 2029 - 2038, june 2023.
ISSN 2068-7729.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jemt/article/view/7899>. Date accessed: 22 dec. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505/jemt.14.4(68).14.
Section
Article
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). Published by ASERS Publishing 2024. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of CC-BY 4.0 license.