A Research on Econometric Analysis of Tourism Sector, Economic Growth and Unemployment Indicators in Turkey
Abstract
In this study on Turkey, which is one of the most developed countries in the tourism sector, the relationship between economic growth and tourism revenues in Turkey has been analysed over a 16-year period starting from 2005. It has been tried to reveal how the tourism sector, which has an important dimension in Turkey, also affects the unemployment levels with the help of analysis. In the study conducted by multiple regression, a series of assumption tests were applied before the regression analysis. After applying tests such as VIF, Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM and obtaining valid values, the transition to the multiple regression model was made. The information required for the analysis was obtained from the World Bank, one of the most important data disclosure platforms. According to the results of the applied multiple regression model, the model gave significant results. As a result of the study, the hypotheses were supported and it was determined that tourism revenues are an important factor in economic growth in Turkey, which is indeed a tourism dependent country. At the same time, it has been found that the tourism sector has an important share in eliminating unemployment problems in the country.
References
[1] Akadiri, S. S., Lasisi, T. T., Uzuner, G. and Akadiri, A. C. 2020. Examining the causal impacts of tourism, globalization, economic growth and carbon emissions in tourism island territories: bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(4): 470-484. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1539067
[2] Akbulayev, N., Guliyeva, N. and Aslanova, G. 2020. Economic analysis of tourism enterprise solvency and the possibility of bankruptcy: The case of the Thomas cook group. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 9(2): 1-12.
[3] Aydin, M. 2022. The impacts of political stability, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on tourism in Turkey: New evidence from Fourier Bootstrap ARDL approach. Renewable Energy, 190: 467-473. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.144
[4] Blazevic, B. 2007. Turizam u gospodarskom sustavu. Opatija: Fakultet za turistički i hotelski menadžment. Preuzeto.
[5] Bram, J. 1995. Tourism and New York City's Economy. Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 1(7): 1-6. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1001259
[6] Capo, J., and Valle, E. 2008. The macroeconomic contribution of tourism. Tourism development: Economics, management and strategy. In Alejandro D. Ramos, & Pablo S. Jiménes (Eds), Tourism Development: Economics, Management, and Strategy. pp. 201-226. New York: Nova Science Publishers Inc.
[7] Charfeddine, L. and Dawd, I. 2022. Analysis of the resilience of the Turkey tourism industry to exogenous shocks: new evidence from a NARDL model. Tourism Recreation Research, 1-16. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2022.2026615
[8] Chou, M. C. 2013. Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis. Economic modelling, 33, 226-232. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.024
[9] Coltman, M. M. 1989. Introduction to Travel and Tourism: An International Approach. New York: Wiley.
[10] Demir, M. and Dalgıç, A. 2022. Examining gastronomy festivals as the attractiveness factor for tourism destinations: The case of Turkey. Journal of Convention & Event Tourism, 1-23. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/15470148.2022.2089797
[11] Dinçer, M. Z. 1993. Turizm Ekonomisi ve Türkiye Ekonomisi’nde Turizm. Istanbul: Filiz Kitabevi. (In Turkish)
[12] Erdoğan, H. 1996. Ekonomik, Sosyal, Kültürel, Çevresel Yönleriyle Uluslararası Turizm. Bursa: Uludağ Üniversitesi Yayınevi. (In Turkish)
[13] Fahimi, A., Saint Akadiri, S., Seraj, M., and Akadiri, A. C. 2018. Testing the role of tourism and human capital development in economic growth. A panel causality study of microstates. Tourism management perspectives, 28: 62-70. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2018.08.004
[14] Gokovali, U. 2010. Contribution of tourism to economic growth in Turkey. Anatolia, 21(1): 139-153. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2010.9687095
[15] Gujarati, D. N. 2003. Basic Econometrics. (4th edition). New York: McGraw-Hill.
[16] Gunduz, L. and Hatemi-J, A. 2005. Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12(8): 499-504. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500109865
[17] Holik, A. 2016. Relationship of economic growth with tourism sector. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 9(1): 16-33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v9i1.7184
[18] Hüseyni, İ., Doru, Ö. and Tunç, A. 2017. The effects of tourism revenues on economic growth in the context of neo-classical growth model: in the case of turkey. Ecoforum Journal, 6(1): 1-6.
[19] Huseynli, B. 2022. Examining the Relationship between Brand Value, Energy Production and Economic Growth. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(3): 298-304. DOI:https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.12987
[20] Huseynli, N. 2022a. Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Tourism Revenues, Inflation and Economic Growth: The Case of Morocco and South Africa. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 11(1): 135-146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720.216
[21] Huseynli, N. 2022b. Econometric Measurement of the Relationship between Tourism Revenues and Economic Growth. Study Case of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 13(4): 1136-1141. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14505/jemt.v13.4(60).19
[22] İlkin, A., and Dinçer, Z. 1991. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Sorunlar - Çözüm Önerileri Dizisi 2: Turizm (Türk Ekonomisindeki Yeri Ve Önemi). Ankara: TOBB Yayınları.
[23] Kantarci, H. B. and Karakaya, U. 2016. The Effects of Tourism Sector on Turkey's Economic Development. In International Academic Conference Proceedings (pp. 1-7). Prague, Czech Republic.
[24] Karakul, A. 2018. Türkiye’de kentlere ilişkin bazı göstergelerin öğrenci başarısına etkisinin çok değişkenli doğrusal regresyon ile modellenmesi. Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(1): 53-77. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31454/usb.419838
[25] Keskin, A., and Cansız, H. 2010. Tourism, Turkey and economic development. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(4): 23-46.
[26] Khurramov, O. K. 2020. The role of the tourism sector in the digitalization of the service economy. Economics and Innovative Technologies, 2020(1): 1-8.
[27] Kılavuz, E. 2018. Medical tourism competition: The case of Turkey. International Journal of Health Management and Tourism, 3(1): 42-58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31201/ijhmt.372364
[28] Knowles, T. and Curtis, S. 1999. The market viability of European mass tourist destinations. A post‐stagnation life‐cycle analysis. International journal of tourism research, 1(2): 87-96. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1522-1970(199903/04)1:2<87::AID-JTR135>3.0.CO;2-6
[29] Kreishan, F. 2014. The economics of tourism in Jordan: A statistical study during the period 1990-2011. Arab Economic and Business Journal, 9(1): 37-45. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aebj.2014.05.005
[30] Lew, A. A. 2011. Tourism's role in the global economy. Tourism Geographies, 13(1): 148-151. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2010.531046
[31] Mankiw, N. G. 2003. Principles of Economics. (3rd ed). South-Western College Pub.
[32] Massidda, C., and Mattana, P. 2013. A SVECM analysis of the relationship between international tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1): 93-105. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287512457262
[33] Mathieson, A., and Wall, G. 1982. Tourism, economic, physical and social impacts. Longman.
[34] Oktayer, N., Susam, N., and Çak, M. 2007. Türkiye’de turizm ekonomisi. İstanbul Ticaret Odası, İstanbul.
[35] Onder, K., and Durgun, A. (2008, March). Effects of tourism sector on the employment in Turkey: An Econometric Application. In First International Conference on Management and Economics (ICME’08). Tirana, Albania, March 2008, Proceedings Book Volume - I / II / III, 365-373.
[36] Saint Akadiri, S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., and Avci, T. 2020. Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43: 273-277. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002
[37] Schubert, S. F., and Brida, J. G. 2008. Dynamic effects of subsidizing the tourism sector. Tourism Economics, 14(1): 57-80. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5367/000000008783554767
[38] Tiwari, A. 2011. Tourism, Exports and FDI as a Means of Growth: Evidence from four Asian Countries. Romanian Economic Journal, 14(40): 131-151.
[39] UNWTO (2022). Total employees by tourism industries. Available at: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/9378673/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/9378673
[40] World Tourism Organization (2021). Tourism in Azerbaijan. Available at: https://www.worlddata.info/asia/azerbaijan/tourism.php
[2] Akbulayev, N., Guliyeva, N. and Aslanova, G. 2020. Economic analysis of tourism enterprise solvency and the possibility of bankruptcy: The case of the Thomas cook group. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 9(2): 1-12.
[3] Aydin, M. 2022. The impacts of political stability, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on tourism in Turkey: New evidence from Fourier Bootstrap ARDL approach. Renewable Energy, 190: 467-473. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.144
[4] Blazevic, B. 2007. Turizam u gospodarskom sustavu. Opatija: Fakultet za turistički i hotelski menadžment. Preuzeto.
[5] Bram, J. 1995. Tourism and New York City's Economy. Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 1(7): 1-6. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1001259
[6] Capo, J., and Valle, E. 2008. The macroeconomic contribution of tourism. Tourism development: Economics, management and strategy. In Alejandro D. Ramos, & Pablo S. Jiménes (Eds), Tourism Development: Economics, Management, and Strategy. pp. 201-226. New York: Nova Science Publishers Inc.
[7] Charfeddine, L. and Dawd, I. 2022. Analysis of the resilience of the Turkey tourism industry to exogenous shocks: new evidence from a NARDL model. Tourism Recreation Research, 1-16. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2022.2026615
[8] Chou, M. C. 2013. Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis. Economic modelling, 33, 226-232. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.024
[9] Coltman, M. M. 1989. Introduction to Travel and Tourism: An International Approach. New York: Wiley.
[10] Demir, M. and Dalgıç, A. 2022. Examining gastronomy festivals as the attractiveness factor for tourism destinations: The case of Turkey. Journal of Convention & Event Tourism, 1-23. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/15470148.2022.2089797
[11] Dinçer, M. Z. 1993. Turizm Ekonomisi ve Türkiye Ekonomisi’nde Turizm. Istanbul: Filiz Kitabevi. (In Turkish)
[12] Erdoğan, H. 1996. Ekonomik, Sosyal, Kültürel, Çevresel Yönleriyle Uluslararası Turizm. Bursa: Uludağ Üniversitesi Yayınevi. (In Turkish)
[13] Fahimi, A., Saint Akadiri, S., Seraj, M., and Akadiri, A. C. 2018. Testing the role of tourism and human capital development in economic growth. A panel causality study of microstates. Tourism management perspectives, 28: 62-70. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2018.08.004
[14] Gokovali, U. 2010. Contribution of tourism to economic growth in Turkey. Anatolia, 21(1): 139-153. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2010.9687095
[15] Gujarati, D. N. 2003. Basic Econometrics. (4th edition). New York: McGraw-Hill.
[16] Gunduz, L. and Hatemi-J, A. 2005. Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12(8): 499-504. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500109865
[17] Holik, A. 2016. Relationship of economic growth with tourism sector. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 9(1): 16-33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v9i1.7184
[18] Hüseyni, İ., Doru, Ö. and Tunç, A. 2017. The effects of tourism revenues on economic growth in the context of neo-classical growth model: in the case of turkey. Ecoforum Journal, 6(1): 1-6.
[19] Huseynli, B. 2022. Examining the Relationship between Brand Value, Energy Production and Economic Growth. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(3): 298-304. DOI:https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.12987
[20] Huseynli, N. 2022a. Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Tourism Revenues, Inflation and Economic Growth: The Case of Morocco and South Africa. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, 11(1): 135-146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720.216
[21] Huseynli, N. 2022b. Econometric Measurement of the Relationship between Tourism Revenues and Economic Growth. Study Case of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 13(4): 1136-1141. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14505/jemt.v13.4(60).19
[22] İlkin, A., and Dinçer, Z. 1991. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Sorunlar - Çözüm Önerileri Dizisi 2: Turizm (Türk Ekonomisindeki Yeri Ve Önemi). Ankara: TOBB Yayınları.
[23] Kantarci, H. B. and Karakaya, U. 2016. The Effects of Tourism Sector on Turkey's Economic Development. In International Academic Conference Proceedings (pp. 1-7). Prague, Czech Republic.
[24] Karakul, A. 2018. Türkiye’de kentlere ilişkin bazı göstergelerin öğrenci başarısına etkisinin çok değişkenli doğrusal regresyon ile modellenmesi. Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(1): 53-77. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31454/usb.419838
[25] Keskin, A., and Cansız, H. 2010. Tourism, Turkey and economic development. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(4): 23-46.
[26] Khurramov, O. K. 2020. The role of the tourism sector in the digitalization of the service economy. Economics and Innovative Technologies, 2020(1): 1-8.
[27] Kılavuz, E. 2018. Medical tourism competition: The case of Turkey. International Journal of Health Management and Tourism, 3(1): 42-58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31201/ijhmt.372364
[28] Knowles, T. and Curtis, S. 1999. The market viability of European mass tourist destinations. A post‐stagnation life‐cycle analysis. International journal of tourism research, 1(2): 87-96. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1522-1970(199903/04)1:2<87::AID-JTR135>3.0.CO;2-6
[29] Kreishan, F. 2014. The economics of tourism in Jordan: A statistical study during the period 1990-2011. Arab Economic and Business Journal, 9(1): 37-45. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aebj.2014.05.005
[30] Lew, A. A. 2011. Tourism's role in the global economy. Tourism Geographies, 13(1): 148-151. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2010.531046
[31] Mankiw, N. G. 2003. Principles of Economics. (3rd ed). South-Western College Pub.
[32] Massidda, C., and Mattana, P. 2013. A SVECM analysis of the relationship between international tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research, 52(1): 93-105. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287512457262
[33] Mathieson, A., and Wall, G. 1982. Tourism, economic, physical and social impacts. Longman.
[34] Oktayer, N., Susam, N., and Çak, M. 2007. Türkiye’de turizm ekonomisi. İstanbul Ticaret Odası, İstanbul.
[35] Onder, K., and Durgun, A. (2008, March). Effects of tourism sector on the employment in Turkey: An Econometric Application. In First International Conference on Management and Economics (ICME’08). Tirana, Albania, March 2008, Proceedings Book Volume - I / II / III, 365-373.
[36] Saint Akadiri, S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., and Avci, T. 2020. Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43: 273-277. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002
[37] Schubert, S. F., and Brida, J. G. 2008. Dynamic effects of subsidizing the tourism sector. Tourism Economics, 14(1): 57-80. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5367/000000008783554767
[38] Tiwari, A. 2011. Tourism, Exports and FDI as a Means of Growth: Evidence from four Asian Countries. Romanian Economic Journal, 14(40): 131-151.
[39] UNWTO (2022). Total employees by tourism industries. Available at: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/9378673/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/9378673
[40] World Tourism Organization (2021). Tourism in Azerbaijan. Available at: https://www.worlddata.info/asia/azerbaijan/tourism.php
Published
2022-09-30
How to Cite
HUSEYNLI, Bahman.
A Research on Econometric Analysis of Tourism Sector, Economic Growth and Unemployment Indicators in Turkey.
Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, [S.l.], v. 13, n. 6, p. 1629-1636, sep. 2022.
ISSN 2068-7729.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jemt/article/view/7275>. Date accessed: 22 dec. 2024.
Section
Article
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). Published by ASERS Publishing 2024. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of CC-BY 4.0 license.