Mathematical Modeling of Tourism Development. An Application to Albanian Tourism

Robert KOSOVA; Valentina SINAJ

doi:10.14505//jemt.v12.6(54).26

Robert KOSOVA Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Information Technology University “Aleksandër Moisiu Durres”, Albania
Valentina SINAJ Department of Statistics and Applied Informatics, Faculty of Economics University of Tirana, Albania

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14505//jemt.v12.6(54).26

Abstract

The article contains a comprehensive study of tourist arrivals in Albania in the years 1994 to 2020. During this period, the trend of tourism development has been studied, using the widely approved concept of Tourist Area Cycle Theory (TALC). During these years, the number of tourists has been growing rapidly, and, the touristic sites of Albania have been transformed to serve touristic purposes, especially the coastline. Recently the geographic touristic map has been enlarged to the mountain and rural areas, touristic villages, and cultural, archaeological, historical tourism. The dynamics of tourism development have been studied by many researchers, academics, and institutions to provide a complete and clear picture of the history and predict the future of the tourism industry. Econometric, mathematical or mixed models are applied to fit the tourism development and they have been helpful and have served the purpose. The model we have used to analyze the arrivals in Albania is the Logistical and the Gompertz model, largely used to estimate growth under limited resources. The tourist arrivals, i.e., the number of tourists entering the destination country have been considered as the most important variable to describe the tourism development. Several useful software is mostly used to fit the historical data and predict future arrivals such as Stata, Lab fit, Curve Expert, Spss, etc. In our case the Stata software to run the data provided for this article. The data for this article are provided from INSTAT (National Institute of Statistics), (http://www.instat.gov.al/) and other National Institutions such as the Ministry of Tourism and Environment of Albania, (https://turizmi.gov.al/), and several International Institutional such as the World Bank, (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL?locations=AL), World Tourism Organization, (https://www.unwto.org/statistic/basic-tourism-statistics). The data, together with the growing numbers of tourists show the significant impact of tourism on the economic development of the country, income, contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, etc.

References

[1] Albaladejo, I. P., & Maria, M.-G. P. (2015). An R&D-based endogenous growth model of international tourism. A Tourism Economics, 21(4): 701-719.
[2] Butler, R. W. (2006). The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution: Implications for management of resources. In The Tourism Area Life Cycle, 1: 3-12.
[3] Buttler, R. W. (1980). The concept of tourism area cycle of evolution: implications for management of resources”. Canadian Geographer, 24: 5-12.
[4] Čizmić, E., & Čaušević., A. (2017). Impact of event tourism in a tourist destination quality of experience–Case of the Sarajevo Film Festival. Universal Journal of Management, 5(7): 332-340.
[5] Correia, R., & Brito, C. (2016). Wine tourism and regional development. In Wine and tourism, 27-39.
[6] Kovaci et al. (2021). The Impact of Tourism on the Economic Development of Kosovo. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 12(1): 146 – 153.
[7] Kulendran, N. and Witt, S.F. (2001). Cointegration versus least squares regression. Annals of Tourism Research, 28(2): 291-311.
[8] Lequeux- Dinca, A. I., & Preda, M. (2018). Festivals and cultural events–a destinFestivals and cultural events–a destination attractor and a triggering factor of change in the post-communist Romanian landscape. Journal of Environmental and Tourism Analyses, 5(1): 58-72.
[9] Lundtorp, S., & Wanhill., S. (2001). The resort lifecycle theory: Generating processes and estimation. Annals of tourism research, 28(4): 947-964.
[10] Malthus, T. R. (1872). An Essay on the Principle of Population.
[11] Martin, C. A., & Wit, S. F. (1989). Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods. International Journal of forecasting, 5(1): 7-19.
[12] Quetelet, L. A. (2013). A treatise on man and the development of his faculties. Cambridge University Press.
[13] Sambuu, A. (2019). Recreational assessment of landscapes of Tuva for the development of tourism. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism (JEMT), 2 (34): 438-440.
[14] Shehu, V., Kosova, R., & Guxholli, D. (2016). Estimation of Foreign Arrivals in Albania Using Logistic Growth Model. “Information Systems and Technology Innovations: The New Paradigm for a smarter economy" (pp. 77-78). Tirana. Albania. ISBN: 978-9928-148-56-8.
[15] Song, H., Li, G., Witt, S. F., & Fei, B. (2010). Tourism demand modeling and forecasting: how should demand be measured? Tourism economics, 16(1): 63-81.
[16] Verhulst, P.-F. (1838). Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement. Corresp. Math. Phys. 10: 113-126.
[17] INSTAT. (2021, 9). www.instat.gov.al/en/Home.asp. Retrieved from INSTAT. www.instat.gov.al/en/.
[18] worldbank.org. (2021, 9). worldbank. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL?end=2019&locations=AL&start=1995&view=chart