INTERNATIONAL TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THAILAND. COINTEGRATION AND THE GRANGER CAUSALITY
Abstract
The purpose of this paper was to investigate long-run and short-run relationship between income and tourism demand, focused on an econometric model test. Moreover, this paper filled the gap in research as it compared the relationship between tourists from five important countries who visited Thailand as a destination country. The Engle and Granger cointegration method was used to explore the relationship between income and tourism demand. Before testing, researchers proved causality between income and tourism demand using the Granger causality test for the annual data from 1981 to 2012 in regards to five important countries related to Thailand tourism. The results of the cointegration test indicated that there was a long-run relationship between tourists’ arrivals and income. The short-run relationship indicated that Korean tourists have the fastest speed of adjustment,the most loyalty to Thailand tourism, while Chinese tourists have the slowest one. Moreover, empirical evidence showed that England has a bidirectional relationship. A unidirectional relationship growth leads tourism in Japan and Korea. In contrast, tourism leads growth in China. This study identified that there was no causality relationship with Malaysia. These finding are important for policy makers who formulate tourism policy to enhance tourism development and economic growth.References
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[47] Song, Haiyan, Wong, Kevin K.F., and Chon Kaye K.S. 2003. Modelling and forecasting the demand for Hong Kong tourism. Hospitality Management 22(4): 435-451,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4319(03)00047-1
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*** Department of Tourism. 2014 Thailand tourism statistics. http://www.tourism.go.th/home/listcategory/11/217
*** National Statistical Office National Information. 2013. Tourism Hub. http://www.nic.go.th/gsic/uploadfile/ Tourism-Hub.pdf
[2] Akis, Sevgin. 1998. A compact econometric model of tourism demand for Turkey. Tourism Management 19(1): 99-102, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(97)00097-6
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[5] Asemota, Omorogbe Joseph, and Bala, Dahiru Abdullahi. 2012. Modeling tourism demand in Japan using cointegration and error correction model. International Review of Business Research Papers 8(2): 29-43, http://www.bizresearchpapers.com/3.%20Joseph.pdf
[6] Aslan, Alper, Kula Ferit, and Kaplan, Muhittin. 2009. International tourism demand for Turkey: A dynamic panel data approach. Research Journal of international Studies 9(1): 65-73.
[7] Brida, Juan Gabriel, Sanchez Carrera, Edgar Javier, and Risso, Wiston Adrián. 2008. Tourism’s impact on long-run Mexican economic growth. Economics Bulletin 23(21): 1-8, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1076225
[8] Caglayan, E., Sak, N., and Karymshakov K. 2012. Relationship between tourism and economic growth: A panel granger causality approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review 2(5): 591-602, http://www.aessweb.com/pdf-files/591-602.pdf
[9] Chancharat, Surachai. 2011. Thai tourism and economic development: The current state of research. Kasetsart Journal (Social Science) 32(2): 340-351, http://kasetsartjournal.ku.ac.th/kuj_files/2011/ A1110061100224677.pdf
[10] Chancharat, Surachai, and Chancharat, Nongnit. 2010. Tourism development and economic growth: Evidence from Thailand. International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research 8(1): 65-77.
[11] Croes, Robertico, and Vanegas, Manuel. 2008. Cointegration and causality between tourism and poverty reduction. Journal of Travel Research 47(1): 94-103, http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047287507312429
[12] Chen, Ching Fu., and Chiou-Wei, Song Zan. 2009. Tourism expansion, tourism uncertainty and economic growth: New evidence from Taiwan and Korea. Tourism Management 30(6): 812-818, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.12.013
[13] Dritsakis, Nikolaos. 2004. Tourism as a long run economic growth factor: An empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics 10(3): 305-316, http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/ 0000000041895094
[14] Engle, Robert F., and Granger, C.W. 1987. Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 55(2): 251-276, http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913236
[15] Giacomelli, A. 2006.Tourism demand. PhD diss., University of Insubria. Italy.
[16] Gilbert, David, and Terrata, Mikiko. 2001. An exploratory study of factors of Japanese tourism demand for the UK. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 13(2): 70-78,http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1108/09596110110381843
[17] Ghartey, Edward E. 2010.Tourism, economic growth and monetary policy in Jamaica. Paper presented at the 11th annual SALISES 2010 conference, March 24-26, in Port of Spain, Trinidad-Tobago.
[18] Gomez, Venancio Bote. 1996. Research in Spain on tourism and economic development. The Tourist Review 51(1): 5-11, http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eb058210
[19] Gormus, Sakir and Gocer, Ismet. 2010. The socio-economic determinant of tourism demand in Turkey: A panel data approach. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 55: 88-99.
[20] Granger, C.W.J. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3): 424-438,http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912791
[21] Granger, C.W.J. 1988. Granger causality, cointegration, and control. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2-3): 551-559, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90055-3
[22] Hanafiah, H., and Harun, F. 2010. Tourism demand in Malaysia: A cross-sectional pool time-series analysis. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance 1(2): 200-203, https://www.academia.edu/3258565/Tourism_demand_in_Malaysia_A_cross-sectional_pool_time-series_analysis
[23] Hing, Nerilee, and Dimmock, Kay.1997. Contemporary tourism issues in Asia Pacific journals 1989-1996: A thematic perspective. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 9(7): 254-269,http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/09596119710190859
[24] Jayawardena, Chandana, Patterson, Daniel J., Choi, Chris, and Brian, Ryan. 2008. Sustainable tourism development in Niagara. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 20(3): 258-277, http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/09596110810866082
[25] Kadir, Norsiah and Jusoff, Kamaruzaman. 2010. The cointegration and causality test for tourism and trade in Malaysia. International Journal of Economics and Finance 2(1): 138-143, http://dx.doi.org/ 10.5539/ijef.v2n1p138
[26] Karagiannis, Nikolaos. 2003. Tourism, linkages and economic development in Jamaica. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 15(3): 184-187, http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ 09596110310470257
[27] Katafono, Resina and Gounder, Aruna. 2004. Modelling tourism demand in Fiji. Working Paper, Economics Department Reserve Bank of Fiji, Suva, Fiji, http://rbf.gov.fj/docs/2004_01_wp.pdf
[28] Katircioglu, Salih T. 2009. Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johensen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management 30(1): 17-20, http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.tourman.2008.04.004
[29] Khan, Habibullah, Toh, Rex S., and Chua, Lyndon. 2005. Tourism and trade: Cointegration and Granger causality tests. Journal of Travel Research 44(2): 171-176, http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047287505276607
[30] Kim, Hyun Jeong, Chen, Ming Hsiang, and Jang, SooCheong. 2006. Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan. Tourism Management 27(5): 925-933, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.tourman.2005.05.011
[31] Lean, Hooi Hooi, and Tang, Chor Foon. 2010. Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis stable for Malaysia? A note. International Journal of Tourism Research 12(4): 375-378, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jtr.759
[32] Lee, Chien-Chiang, and Chang, Chun-Ping. 2008. Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management 29: 180-192, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.02.013
[33] Lee, Chien-Chiang, and Chien, Mei-Se. 2008. Structural breaks, tourism development and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan. Mathematics and computers in Simulation 77(4): 358-368, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2007.03.004
[34] Li, Gang, Wang, Kevin K.F., Song, Haiyan, and Witt, Stephen F. 2006. Tourism demand forecasting: A time varying parameter error correction model.Journal of Travel Research 45(2): 175-185, http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047287506291596
[35] Lim, Christine. 1997.Review of international tourism demand models. Annals of Tourism Research 24(4): 835-849, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00049-2
[36] Massidda, Carla, and Mattana, Paolo. 2013. A SVECM analysis of the relationship between international tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research 52(1): 93-105, http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047287512457262
[37] Munoz, Teresa Garin. 2007. German demand for tourism in Spain. Tourism Management 28(1): 12-22,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2005.07.020
[38] Narayan, Paresh Kumar. 2003. Tourism demand modeling: Some issue regarding unit roots, co-integration and diagnostic tests. International Journal of Tourism Research 5: 369-380,http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jtr.440
[39] Oh, Chi-Ok. 2005. The contribution tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management 26(1): 39-44, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2003.09.014
[40] Pindyck, R.S., and Rubinfeld, D.L. 1998. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. McGraw-Hill.
[41] Salleh, Norlida, Siong-Hook, Law, Ramachandran, Sridar, Shuib, Ahmad, and Noor, Zaleha. 2008. Asian tourism demand for Malaysia: A bound test approach.Contemporary Management Research 4(4): 351-368, http://dx.doi.org/10.7903/cmr.v4i4.1178
[42] Salman, A. Khalik. 2003. Estimating tourist demand through cointegration analysis: Swedish data. Current Issues in Tourism 6(4): 323-339, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13683500308667959
[43] Samimi, Ahmad Jafari, Sadeghi, Somaye, and Sadeghi, Soraya. 2011. Tourism and economic growth in developing countries: P-VAR approach. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 10(1), 28-32, http://www.idosi.org/mejsr/mejsr10(1)11/5.pdf
[44] Santana, Guilherme. 2000. An overview of contemporary tourism development in Brazil. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 12(7): 424-430, http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ 09596110010347310
[45] Sims, Christopher A. 1972. Money, income and causality. The American Economic Review 62(4): 540-552, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1806097
[46] Song, Haiyan, Romily, Peter, and Liu, Xiaming. 2000. An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK. Applied Economics 32(5): 611-624,http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/000368400322516
[47] Song, Haiyan, Wong, Kevin K.F., and Chon Kaye K.S. 2003. Modelling and forecasting the demand for Hong Kong tourism. Hospitality Management 22(4): 435-451,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4319(03)00047-1
[48] Song, Haiyan, and Li, Gang. 2008. Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research. Tourism Management 29(2): 203-220, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016
[49] Song, Haiyan, Li, Gang, Witt, Stephen F., and Fei, Baogang. 2010. Tourism demand modeling and forecasting: how should demand be measured. Tourism Economics 16(1): 63-81, http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/000000010790872213
[50] Suriya, Komsan. 2005. Tourism demand for Lampang province: A quantitative approach. Paper present at the Asian forum on business education conference, November 30-December 2, in Ubonratchathani, Thailand.
[51] Tang, Chun-Hung, and Jang, SooCheong. 2009. The tourism-economy causality in the United States: A sub-industry level examination. Tourism Management 30(4): 553-558, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. tourman.2008.09.009
[52] Tisdell, Clem. 2002. Economics and tourism development: Structural features of tourism and economic influences on its vulnerability. Working paper [No.17], School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia, http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/90522/2/WP%2017.pdf
[53] Zhang, Guangrui, Pine, Ray, and Zhang, Hanqin Qiu. 2000. China’s international tourism development: Present and future. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 12(5): 282-290, http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/09596110010339634
*** Department of Tourism. 2014 Thailand tourism statistics. http://www.tourism.go.th/home/listcategory/11/217
*** National Statistical Office National Information. 2013. Tourism Hub. http://www.nic.go.th/gsic/uploadfile/ Tourism-Hub.pdf
Published
2016-11-15
How to Cite
HARASARN, Anothai; CHANCHARAT, Surachai.
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THAILAND. COINTEGRATION AND THE GRANGER CAUSALITY.
Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, [S.l.], v. 5, n. 2, p. 237-248, nov. 2016.
ISSN 2068-7729.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jemt/article/view/407>. Date accessed: 23 dec. 2024.
Section
Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism
Keywords
economic growth; tourism development; Thailand
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). Published by ASERS Publishing 2024. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of CC-BY 4.0 license.