Using the System Dynamic Approach to Develop a Policy Scenario for Reducing CO2 Emissions from Tourism Travel
Abstract
This study has several purposes. The first is to determine the causal relationship between tourist transportation behaviour, the number of tourists, and the volume of CO2 emissions produced from tourist transportation to the Borobudur Temple. The second purpose is to use a system dynamic methodology to simulate a reduction in the amount of CO2 emissions from tourist transportation to the Borobudur Temple. Lastly, to identify the best policy with which to regulate tourist transportation to the Borobudur Temple. To achieve those purposes, the real systems are identified and translated into system dynamic models using causal-loop and stock-and-flow diagrams. The model consists of three sub-systems, i.e., the number of tourists, the modes of transportation, and the volume of CO2 emissions. Moreover, this study generated eight scenarios for comparison with respect to the volume of CO2 emissions resulting from several transportation modes. The result of simulation with system dynamic methodology indicated that the CO2 emissions produced by scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 are within the range of 1,800,000 kg CO2, which means that they approach the target of reducing CO2 emissions by 50% by 2035. This study provides essential insights for governmental and local authorities with respect to policy implementation.
References
[1] Becken, S. 2002. Analysing International Tourist Flows to Estimate Energy Use Associated with Air Travel. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 10 (2): 114-131. DOI:10.1080/09669580208667157
[2] Becken, S. 2013. A Review of Tourism and Climate Change as an Evolving Knowledge Domain. Tourism Management Perspectives, 6: 53-62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2012.11.006
[3] Becken, S. and Simmons, D. G. 2002. Understanding Energy Consumption Patterns of Tourist Attractions and Activities in New Zealand. Tourism Management, 23 (4): 343-354. DOI:10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00091-7
[4] Becken, S. and Patterson, M. 2006. Measuring National Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Tourism as a Key Step towards Achieving Sustainable Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism. 14 (4): 323-338. DOI:10.2167/jost547.0
[5] Becken, S., Frampton, C. and Simmons, D. 2001. Energy Consumption Patterns in the Accommodation Sector—The New Zealand Case. Ecological Economics, 39 (3): 371-386. DOI:10.1016/S0921-8009(01)00229-4
[6] Becken, S., Simmons, D. G. and Frampton, C. 2003. Energy Use Associated with Different Travel Choices. Tourism Management, 24 (3): 267-277. DOI:10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00066-3
[7] Cadarso, M. Á., Gómez, N., López, L. A. and Tobarra M. Á. 2016. Calculating Tourism's Carbon Footprint: Measuring the Impact of Investments. Journal of Cleaner Production, 111: 529-537. DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.09.019
[8] Cainelli, G. and Mazzanti, M. 2013. Environmental Innovations in Services: Manufacturing–Services Integration and Policy Transmissions. Research Policy, 42 (9): 1595-1604. DOI:10.1016/j.respol.2013.05.010
[9] Carlisle, S., Johansen, A. and Kunc, M. 2016. Strategic Foresight for (Coastal) Urban Tourism Market Complexity: The Case of Bournemouth. Tourism Management, 54: 81-95. DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2015.10.005
[10] Chang, Y. C., Hong, F. W. and Lee, M. T. 2008. A System Dynamic Based DSS for Sustainable Coral Reef Management in Kenting Coastal Zone, Taiwan. Ecological Modelling, 211 (1-2): 153-168. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.09.001
[11] Chen, H., Chang, Y. C. and Chen K. C. 2014. Integrated Wetland Management: An Analysis with Group Model Building Based on System Dynamics Model. Journal of Environmental Management, 146: 309-319. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.05.038
[12] Cortes-Jimenez, I. and Pulina, M. 2010. Inbound Tourism and Long-Run Economic Growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13 (1): 61-74. DOI:10.1080/13683500802684411
[13] Dubois, G., Peeters, P., Ceron, J. P. and Gössling, S. 2011. The Future Tourism Mobility of the World Population: Emission Growth versus Climate Policy. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 45 (10): 1031-1042. DOI:10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.004
[14] Forrester, J. W. 1961. Industrial Dynamics, Cambridge, M.A.: MIT Press.
[15] GhulamRabbany, M., et al. 2013. Environmental Effects of Tourism. American Journal of Environment, Energy and Power Research, 1 (7): 117-130. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292157428_ENVIRONMENTAL_EFFECTS_OF_TOURISM
[16] Gössling, S. 2000. Sustainable Tourism Development in Developing Countries: Some Aspects of Energy Use. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 8 (5): 410-425. DOI:10.1080/09669580008667376
[17] Gössling, S. 2009. Carbon Neutral Destinations: A Conceptual Analysis. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 17 (1): 17-37. DOI:10.1080/09669580802276018
[18] Gössling, S. 2013. National Emissions from Tourism: An Overlooked Policy Challenge? Energy Policy, 59: 433-442. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.058
[19] Gössling, S. and Peeters, P. 2015. Assessing Tourism's Global Environmental Impact 1900–2050. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23 (5): 639-659. DOI:10.1080/09669582.2015.1008500
[20] Gössling, S., et al. 2011. Food management in tourism: Reducing tourism’s carbon ‘foodprint’. Tourism Management, 32 (3): 534-543. DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2010.04.006
[21] Gössling, S., Scott, D. and Hall, C. M. 2015. Inter-Market Variability in CO2 Emission-Intensities in Tourism: Implications for Destination Marketing and Carbon Management. Tourism Management, 46: 203-212. DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2014.06.021
[22] Gössling, S., et al. 2007. Voluntary Carbon Offsetting Schemes for Aviation: Efficiency, Credibility and Sustainable Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 15 (3): 223-248. DOI:10.2167/jost758.0
[23] Gössling, S., et al. 2005. The Eco-Efficiency of Tourism. Ecological Economics, 54 (4): 417-434. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.10.006\
[24] Greenhouse Gas Protocol. 2005. Calculating CO2 Emissions from Mobile Sources: Guidance to Calculation Worksheets. Available at: https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/CHP_guidance_v1.0.pdf.
[25] Honggang, X. 2003. Managing side effects of cultural tourism development-the case of Zhouzhuang. Systems Analysis Modelling Simulation, 43 (2): 175-188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02329290290008202.
[26] International Energy Agency. 2015. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Highlights. Paris Cedex, 15, France: International Energy Agency Publications. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2EmissionsfromFuelCombustionHighlights2017.pdf
[27] Jasmin, F. 2010. Ambang Batas CO2 di Atmosfer. Available at: http://www.iklimkarbon.com .
[28] Jones, C. 2013. Scenarios for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction from Tourism: An Extended Tourism Satellite Account Approach in A Regional Setting. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 21 (3): 458-472. DOI:10.1080/09669582.2012.708039
[29] Katircioglu, S. T. 2014. International Tourism, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Pollution: The Case of Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 36: 180-187. DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.058
[30] Koran Tempo. 2015. Indonesia Peringkat Keenam Penyumbang Karbon Dunia. Available at: http://tempo.co/read/news/2015/03/05/061647425/indonesia-peringkat-kenam-penyumbang-karbon-dunia .
[31] Kreag, G. 2001. The Impact of Tourism. Duluth, M. N.: Minnesota Sea Grant.
[32] Liu, J., Feng, T. and Yang, X. 2011. The Energy Requirements and Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Tourism Industry of Western China: A Case of Chengdu City. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15 (6): 2887-2894. DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2011.02.029
[33] Maani, K. E. and Cavana, R. Y. 2000. Systems Thinking and Modeling: Understanding Change and Complexity. New Jersey, U.S.: Prentice Hall.
[34] Mariyono, J. 2017. Determinants of Demand for Foreign Tourism in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 18 (1): 82-92. DOI:10.23917/jep.v18i1.2042
[35] McKinnon, A. and Piecyk, M. 2010. Measuring and Managing CO2 Emissions. Edinburgh: European Chemical Industry Council.
[36] Meng, W., et al. 2016. Quantifying Direct and Indirect Carbon Dioxide Emissions of the Chinese Tourism Industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 126: 586-594. DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.03.067
[37] Peeters, P. and Dubois, G. 2010. Tourism Travel under Climate Change Mitigation Constraints. Journal of Transport Geography, 18 (3): 447-457. DOI:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.09.003
[38] Salleh, N. H. M., Othman, R., Noor, A. H. S. M. and Hasim, M. S. 2010. Malaysian Tourism Demand from the Middle East Market: A Preliminary Analysis. International Journal of West Asian Studies, 2 (1). DOI:10.5895/ijwas.2010.03
[39] Scott, D., et al. 2008. Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges. Madrid: World Tourism Organization. Available at: http://www.unep.fr/shared/publications/pdf/WEBx0142xPA-ClimateChangeandTourismGlobalChallenges.pdf
[40] Sedarati, P., Santos, S. and Pintassilgo, P. 2018. System Dynamics in Tourism Planning and Development. Tourism Planning & Development, 1-25. DOI:10.1080/21568316.2018.1436586
[41] Sharp, H., Grundius, J. and Heinonen, J. 2016. Carbon Footprint of Inbound Tourism to Iceland: A Consumption-Based Life-Cycle Assessment Including Direct and Indirect Emissions. Sustainability, 8 (11): 1147. DOI:10.3390/su8111147
[42] Simpson, M. C., et al. 2008. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism Sector: Frameworks, Tools and Practices. Paris, France: UNEP, University of Oxford, UNWTO, WMO.
[43] Sterman, J. D. 2000. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGraw-Hill.
[44] Susanty, A., Puspitasari, N. B. Saptadi, S. and Prasetyo, S. Implementation of Green Tourism Concept through a Dynamic Programming Algorithm to Select the Best Route of Tourist Travel. Paper presented at International Conference on Eco Engineering Development, Jakarta, Indonesia, September, 2019.
[45] Tang, C. F. 2011. Is The Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Malaysia? A View from Disaggregated Tourism Markets. International Journal of Tourism Research, 13 (1): 97-101. DOI:10.1002/jtr.807
[46] Turner, R. and Freiermuth. 2017. Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact Indonesia 2017. United Kingdom: World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
[47] World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2012. Tourism in the Green Economy–Background Report. Spain: World Tourism Organization.
[48] Yogyakarta Special Region of Culture and Tourism Agency, Tourist Statistics from 2010 to 2015. Available at: http://www.indonesia-tourism.com/yogyakarta/
[2] Becken, S. 2013. A Review of Tourism and Climate Change as an Evolving Knowledge Domain. Tourism Management Perspectives, 6: 53-62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2012.11.006
[3] Becken, S. and Simmons, D. G. 2002. Understanding Energy Consumption Patterns of Tourist Attractions and Activities in New Zealand. Tourism Management, 23 (4): 343-354. DOI:10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00091-7
[4] Becken, S. and Patterson, M. 2006. Measuring National Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Tourism as a Key Step towards Achieving Sustainable Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism. 14 (4): 323-338. DOI:10.2167/jost547.0
[5] Becken, S., Frampton, C. and Simmons, D. 2001. Energy Consumption Patterns in the Accommodation Sector—The New Zealand Case. Ecological Economics, 39 (3): 371-386. DOI:10.1016/S0921-8009(01)00229-4
[6] Becken, S., Simmons, D. G. and Frampton, C. 2003. Energy Use Associated with Different Travel Choices. Tourism Management, 24 (3): 267-277. DOI:10.1016/S0261-5177(02)00066-3
[7] Cadarso, M. Á., Gómez, N., López, L. A. and Tobarra M. Á. 2016. Calculating Tourism's Carbon Footprint: Measuring the Impact of Investments. Journal of Cleaner Production, 111: 529-537. DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.09.019
[8] Cainelli, G. and Mazzanti, M. 2013. Environmental Innovations in Services: Manufacturing–Services Integration and Policy Transmissions. Research Policy, 42 (9): 1595-1604. DOI:10.1016/j.respol.2013.05.010
[9] Carlisle, S., Johansen, A. and Kunc, M. 2016. Strategic Foresight for (Coastal) Urban Tourism Market Complexity: The Case of Bournemouth. Tourism Management, 54: 81-95. DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2015.10.005
[10] Chang, Y. C., Hong, F. W. and Lee, M. T. 2008. A System Dynamic Based DSS for Sustainable Coral Reef Management in Kenting Coastal Zone, Taiwan. Ecological Modelling, 211 (1-2): 153-168. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.09.001
[11] Chen, H., Chang, Y. C. and Chen K. C. 2014. Integrated Wetland Management: An Analysis with Group Model Building Based on System Dynamics Model. Journal of Environmental Management, 146: 309-319. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.05.038
[12] Cortes-Jimenez, I. and Pulina, M. 2010. Inbound Tourism and Long-Run Economic Growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13 (1): 61-74. DOI:10.1080/13683500802684411
[13] Dubois, G., Peeters, P., Ceron, J. P. and Gössling, S. 2011. The Future Tourism Mobility of the World Population: Emission Growth versus Climate Policy. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 45 (10): 1031-1042. DOI:10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.004
[14] Forrester, J. W. 1961. Industrial Dynamics, Cambridge, M.A.: MIT Press.
[15] GhulamRabbany, M., et al. 2013. Environmental Effects of Tourism. American Journal of Environment, Energy and Power Research, 1 (7): 117-130. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292157428_ENVIRONMENTAL_EFFECTS_OF_TOURISM
[16] Gössling, S. 2000. Sustainable Tourism Development in Developing Countries: Some Aspects of Energy Use. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 8 (5): 410-425. DOI:10.1080/09669580008667376
[17] Gössling, S. 2009. Carbon Neutral Destinations: A Conceptual Analysis. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 17 (1): 17-37. DOI:10.1080/09669580802276018
[18] Gössling, S. 2013. National Emissions from Tourism: An Overlooked Policy Challenge? Energy Policy, 59: 433-442. DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.058
[19] Gössling, S. and Peeters, P. 2015. Assessing Tourism's Global Environmental Impact 1900–2050. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23 (5): 639-659. DOI:10.1080/09669582.2015.1008500
[20] Gössling, S., et al. 2011. Food management in tourism: Reducing tourism’s carbon ‘foodprint’. Tourism Management, 32 (3): 534-543. DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2010.04.006
[21] Gössling, S., Scott, D. and Hall, C. M. 2015. Inter-Market Variability in CO2 Emission-Intensities in Tourism: Implications for Destination Marketing and Carbon Management. Tourism Management, 46: 203-212. DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2014.06.021
[22] Gössling, S., et al. 2007. Voluntary Carbon Offsetting Schemes for Aviation: Efficiency, Credibility and Sustainable Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 15 (3): 223-248. DOI:10.2167/jost758.0
[23] Gössling, S., et al. 2005. The Eco-Efficiency of Tourism. Ecological Economics, 54 (4): 417-434. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.10.006\
[24] Greenhouse Gas Protocol. 2005. Calculating CO2 Emissions from Mobile Sources: Guidance to Calculation Worksheets. Available at: https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/CHP_guidance_v1.0.pdf.
[25] Honggang, X. 2003. Managing side effects of cultural tourism development-the case of Zhouzhuang. Systems Analysis Modelling Simulation, 43 (2): 175-188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02329290290008202.
[26] International Energy Agency. 2015. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Highlights. Paris Cedex, 15, France: International Energy Agency Publications. Available at: https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2EmissionsfromFuelCombustionHighlights2017.pdf
[27] Jasmin, F. 2010. Ambang Batas CO2 di Atmosfer. Available at: http://www.iklimkarbon.com .
[28] Jones, C. 2013. Scenarios for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction from Tourism: An Extended Tourism Satellite Account Approach in A Regional Setting. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 21 (3): 458-472. DOI:10.1080/09669582.2012.708039
[29] Katircioglu, S. T. 2014. International Tourism, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Pollution: The Case of Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 36: 180-187. DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.058
[30] Koran Tempo. 2015. Indonesia Peringkat Keenam Penyumbang Karbon Dunia. Available at: http://tempo.co/read/news/2015/03/05/061647425/indonesia-peringkat-kenam-penyumbang-karbon-dunia .
[31] Kreag, G. 2001. The Impact of Tourism. Duluth, M. N.: Minnesota Sea Grant.
[32] Liu, J., Feng, T. and Yang, X. 2011. The Energy Requirements and Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Tourism Industry of Western China: A Case of Chengdu City. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15 (6): 2887-2894. DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2011.02.029
[33] Maani, K. E. and Cavana, R. Y. 2000. Systems Thinking and Modeling: Understanding Change and Complexity. New Jersey, U.S.: Prentice Hall.
[34] Mariyono, J. 2017. Determinants of Demand for Foreign Tourism in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 18 (1): 82-92. DOI:10.23917/jep.v18i1.2042
[35] McKinnon, A. and Piecyk, M. 2010. Measuring and Managing CO2 Emissions. Edinburgh: European Chemical Industry Council.
[36] Meng, W., et al. 2016. Quantifying Direct and Indirect Carbon Dioxide Emissions of the Chinese Tourism Industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 126: 586-594. DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.03.067
[37] Peeters, P. and Dubois, G. 2010. Tourism Travel under Climate Change Mitigation Constraints. Journal of Transport Geography, 18 (3): 447-457. DOI:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.09.003
[38] Salleh, N. H. M., Othman, R., Noor, A. H. S. M. and Hasim, M. S. 2010. Malaysian Tourism Demand from the Middle East Market: A Preliminary Analysis. International Journal of West Asian Studies, 2 (1). DOI:10.5895/ijwas.2010.03
[39] Scott, D., et al. 2008. Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges. Madrid: World Tourism Organization. Available at: http://www.unep.fr/shared/publications/pdf/WEBx0142xPA-ClimateChangeandTourismGlobalChallenges.pdf
[40] Sedarati, P., Santos, S. and Pintassilgo, P. 2018. System Dynamics in Tourism Planning and Development. Tourism Planning & Development, 1-25. DOI:10.1080/21568316.2018.1436586
[41] Sharp, H., Grundius, J. and Heinonen, J. 2016. Carbon Footprint of Inbound Tourism to Iceland: A Consumption-Based Life-Cycle Assessment Including Direct and Indirect Emissions. Sustainability, 8 (11): 1147. DOI:10.3390/su8111147
[42] Simpson, M. C., et al. 2008. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism Sector: Frameworks, Tools and Practices. Paris, France: UNEP, University of Oxford, UNWTO, WMO.
[43] Sterman, J. D. 2000. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGraw-Hill.
[44] Susanty, A., Puspitasari, N. B. Saptadi, S. and Prasetyo, S. Implementation of Green Tourism Concept through a Dynamic Programming Algorithm to Select the Best Route of Tourist Travel. Paper presented at International Conference on Eco Engineering Development, Jakarta, Indonesia, September, 2019.
[45] Tang, C. F. 2011. Is The Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Malaysia? A View from Disaggregated Tourism Markets. International Journal of Tourism Research, 13 (1): 97-101. DOI:10.1002/jtr.807
[46] Turner, R. and Freiermuth. 2017. Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact Indonesia 2017. United Kingdom: World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
[47] World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2012. Tourism in the Green Economy–Background Report. Spain: World Tourism Organization.
[48] Yogyakarta Special Region of Culture and Tourism Agency, Tourist Statistics from 2010 to 2015. Available at: http://www.indonesia-tourism.com/yogyakarta/
Published
2019-07-17
How to Cite
SUSANTY, Aries et al.
Using the System Dynamic Approach to Develop a Policy Scenario for Reducing CO2 Emissions from Tourism Travel.
Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, [S.l.], v. 10, n. 3, p. 550-562, july 2019.
ISSN 2068-7729.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jemt/article/view/3757>. Date accessed: 20 nov. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505//jemt.10.3(35).10.
Section
Article
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). Published by ASERS Publishing 2024. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of CC-BY 4.0 license.