Impact of Fiscal Policy on Agricultural Output in Nigeria
This study examines the impact of fiscal policy on agricultural output in Nigeria using the most recent official data. The metrics for fiscal policy is government capital expenditure and custom duties on fertilizer. The study used annual time series data obtained from CBN annual statistical bulletin, NCS, and FIRS which was found to be stationary at the order of I(1) and I(0). The order of unit root test led to the use of ARDL estimation method employed in the empirical analysis of this research work. The study found evidence of both short and long run relationship between the variables (VAO, GEX, IDMF, and ACGSF) using both Johansen co-integration and ARDL Bounds test. Although government expenditure (GEX) to agricultural sector was found to be statistically insignificant which recommend that government should increase agriculture capital expenditure to ensure that its contribution is significant. Consequently, custom duties on fertilizer (IDMF) was found to be negatively signed and significant indicating a negative impact on agricultural output. This demands that the policy makers should be prudent in the use of fiscal policy instrument in achieving its desired objective.
 Asaleye, A. J., Popoola, O., Lawal, A. I., Ogundipe, A. & Ezenwoke, O. (2018). The credit channels of monetary policy transimmission: Implications on output and employment in Nigeria. Banks and Bank Systems, 13, 103-118
 Audu, N. P. 2012. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Nigerian Economy, 4(1): 142–150.
[4[ Ayopo, B. A., Isola, L. A. & Olukayode, S. R. (2016a). Stock market response to economic growth and interest rate volatility: Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 6(1), 354-360
 Ayopo, B. A., Isola, L. A. & Olukayode, S. R. (2016b). Stock market volatility: Does our fundamentals matter? Ikonomicheski Izsledvania 25(3), 33-42
 Ayopo, B. A., Isola, L. A., and Olukayode, S. R. (2015). Monetary policy dynamics and the stock market movements: empirical evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 10(8), 1179–1188.
 Baharumshah, A. Z., Soon, S., and Lau, E. 2016. Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad? Journal of Policy Modeling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.11.002
 Bouakez, H. 2009. Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy ∗, (January).
 Brzozowski, M., and Siwi, J. 2010. THE IMPACT OF FISCAL RULES ON FISCAL POLICY VOLATILITY nska-Gorzelak I . Introduction, XIII(2): 205–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(10)60010-4
 Castro, V. 2011. The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(2): 313–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2010.09.003
 Edgeworth, F. Y. 1897. The Pure Theory of Taxation. The Economic Journal, 7(25): 46–70. https://doi.org/10.2307/2956958
 Ehinomen, C., and Charles, A. C. 2012. The Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Development In, 5(5): 13–25.
 Isola, L. A., Frank, A. & Leke, B. K. (2015). Can Nigeria achieve Millennium Development Goals? Journal of Social Sciences Research, 1(6), 72-78
 Fankun, D. S., and Evbuomwan, G. O. 2017. An Evaluation of Agricultural Financing, Policies and Initiatives for Sustainable Development in Nigeria, In the 21 st Century, 8(3): 32–38. https://doi.org/10.9790/5933-0803033238
 Fashina, O. A., Asaleye, A. J., Ogunjobi, J. O., and Lawal, A. I. 2018. Foreign aid, human capital and economic growth nexus: Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of International Studies, 11(2): 104–117. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2018/11-2/8
 Fölster, S., and Henrekson, M. 2006. Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: A reply. European Economic Review, 50(1): 219–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2005.02.007
 Gerritsen, A. 2016. AC SC Optimal taxation when people. Journal of Public Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.10.006
 Ghate, C., Gopalakrishnan, P., and Tarafdar, S. 2016. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries Fiscal policy in an emerging market business cycle model. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2016.07.004
 Grazia, M., and Klemm, A. 2016. The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures R. Journal of Macroeconomics, 49: 265–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.08.004
 Hague, T. 2016. European Journal of Political Economy Electoral systems and fi scal policy outcomes : Evidence from, (November 2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.12.004
 Izuchukwu, O. 2011. World Review of Business Research Analysis of the Contribution of Agricultural Sector on the Nigerian Economic Development Izuchukwu, 1(1): 191–200.
 Kuismanen, M., and Kämppi, V. 2010. The effects of fi scal policy on economic activity in Finland. Economic Modelling, 27(5): 1315–1323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.01.010
 Lawal, A. I., Asaleye, A.J., IseOlorunkanmi, J. and Popoola, O. R. 2018. Economic growth, agricultural output and tourism development in Nigeria: An application of the ARDL bound testing approach. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 28(4).
 Lawal, A. I., Nwanji, T. I., Oye O. O., and Adama, I. J. 2018. Can corporate governance mechanisms deter earnings management? Evidence from firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. AESTIMATIO, The IEB International Journal of Finance, Forthcomin.
 Lawal, A. I., Nwanji T. I, Adama, J. I and Otekunrin, A. O. 2017. Examining the Nigerian stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from wavelet unit root test approach. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Forthcomin.
 Lawal, A. I., Oye, O. O., Toro J. and Fashina, O. A. 2018. Taxation and sustainable economic growth: empirical evidence from Nigeria. In P. P. Sengupta (Ed.), Contemporary Issues on Globalization and Sustainable Development (Volume 1, pp. 121–144). New Delhi: Serials.
 Lawal, A. I., Somoye, R. O. C. and B. A. A. 2017. Are African stock markets efficient? Evidence from wavelet unit root test for random walk. Economic Bulletin, 37(4): 1–16.
 Lawal, A. I., Babajide, A. A., Nwanji, T. I., and Eluyela, D. 2018. Are Oil Prices Mean Reverting ? Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks, 8(6): 292–298.
 Lawal, A. I., Nwanji, T. I., Asaleye, A., and Ahmed, V. 2016. Economic growth, financial development and trade openness in Nigeria: An application of the ARDL bound testing approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 4(1): 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2016.1258810
 Maku, O. E. 2015. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth : A Study on Nigerian Economic Perspective, 6(15): 86–93.
 Nkoro, E., and Uko, A. K. 2016. Autoregressive Distributed Lag ( ARDL ) cointegration technique : application and interpretation, 5(4): 63–91.
 Ofoegbu, G. N., and Akwu, D. O. 2016. Empirical analysis of effect of tax revenue on economic development of Nigeria, International Journal of Asian Social Science, 6(10): 604–613. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.1/2016.6.10/1.10.604.613
 Olasunkanmi, O. I. 2013. Fiscal Policy and Sectoral Output in Nigeria : A Multivariate Cointegration Approach, Journal of Economics and Development Studies1(2), 26–34.
 Onwe, O. J., and Ph, D. 2014. Impacts of Fiscal Policy Components on Economic Growth in Nigeria : An Empirical Trend Analysis, Kuwait Chapter of Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review 4(1), 1–19.
 Osuala, A. E., and Jones, E. 2014. Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth of Nigeria, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(6): 203–211. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v6n6p203
 Sertoğlu, K., Ugural, S., and Bekun, F. V. 2017. The Contribution of Agricultural Sector on Economic Growth of Nigeria, International Journal of Economics and Financial 7(1): 547–552.
 Teles, V. K., and Mussolini, C. C. 2013. Author ’ s Accepted Manuscript Public Debt and the Limits of Fiscal Policy to Increase Economic Growth. European Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2013.11.003
 Tiezzi, S., and Xiao, E. 2016. Time delay , complexity and support for taxation. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 77: 117–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.03.002
 Udah, S. C., Nwachukwu, I. N., Nwosu, A. C., Mbanasor, J. A., and Akpan, S. B. 2015. Analysis of Contribution of Various Agricultural Subsectors to Growth in Nigeria Agricultural Sector, International Journal of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, 3(3): 80–86.
 Ugwuanyi, U. B., and Ugwunta, O. D. 2017. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth : An Examination of Selected Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 7(1): 117–130. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARAFMS/v7-i1/2587
The Copyright Transfer Form to ASERS Publishing (The Publisher)
This form refers to the manuscript, which an author(s) was accepted for publication and was signed by all the authors.
The undersigned Author(s) of the above-mentioned Paper here transfer any and all copyright-rights in and to The Paper to The Publisher. The Author(s) warrants that The Paper is based on their original work and that the undersigned has the power and authority to make and execute this assignment. It is the author's responsibility to obtain written permission to quote material that has been previously published in any form. The Publisher recognizes the retained rights noted below and grants to the above authors and employers for whom the work performed royalty-free permission to reuse their materials below. Authors may reuse all or portions of the above Paper in other works, excepting the publication of the paper in the same form. Authors may reproduce or authorize others to reproduce the above Paper for the Author's personal use or for internal company use, provided that the source and The Publisher copyright notice are mentioned, that the copies are not used in any way that implies The Publisher endorsement of a product or service of an employer, and that the copies are not offered for sale as such. Authors are permitted to grant third party requests for reprinting, republishing or other types of reuse. The Authors may make limited distribution of all or portions of the above Paper prior to publication if they inform The Publisher of the nature and extent of such limited distribution prior there to. Authors retain all proprietary rights in any process, procedure, or article of manufacture described in The Paper. This agreement becomes null and void if and only if the above paper is not accepted and published by The Publisher, or is with drawn by the author(s) before acceptance by the Publisher.