Economic Growth, Agricultural Output and Tourism Development in Nigeria: An Application of the ARDL Bound Testing Approach
Abstract
Drawing from three tourism-growth theories: tourism led growth theory; growth led tourism theory; tourism – growth neutrality theory; and one agriculture-growth nexus theory – agriculture overlapping theory, this study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to examine whether or not cointegration exist among economic growth, agricultural output and tourism development in Nigeria. We intend to know what policy instruments need to be manipulated so as to achieve economic growth, increase agricultural output and enhance tourism development. From the results, it is evidence that a two –way cointegration exists between economic growth and agricultural output on the one hand, and between economic growth and tourism development on the other hand. The study also observed that a compelling long run relationship exist between agricultural output and tourism development. To achieve sustainable economic growth, policy makers are advised to pursue heavy investment in the tourism industry, adopts improved farming strategies driven by simple technology among others.
References
[1] Alary, V. et al. 2016. Economic assessment of conservation agriculture, options in mixed crop-livestock systems in Brazil using farm modeling. Agricultural Systems 144: 33–45. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.01.008
[2] Antonakakis, N., Dragouni M., and Filis, G. 2014. How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe? Economic Modelling, 44: 142–155. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.018
[3] Asaleye, A. J., Fashina, O. A., Ogunjobi, J. O. and Lawal, A. I. 2018. Foreign aid, human capital and economic growth nexus: Evidence from Nigeria. Accepted for publication in Journal of International Studies 11(2) (www.jois.eu)
[4] Babajide, A. A. and Lawal, A. I. 2016. Macroeconomic behaviour and FDI inflows in Nigeria: an application of the ARDL model. British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 11(1): 84 – 107. Available at: www.ajournal.co.uk/BJEFM.htm
[5] Babajide, A. A., Lawal, A. I. and Somoye, R. O. 2015. Monetary Policy Dynamics and the Stock Market Movements: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 8(38): 1179 – 1188. Available at: www.cesmaa.eu/journals/jaes/
[6] Brida, J., Cortes-Jimenez, I., and Pulina, M. 2014. Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5): 394-430. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.868414
[7] Cheam, C. L., Mahmood, R., Abdullah, H., and Ong, S. C. 2013. Economic growth, tourism and selected macroeconomic variables: a triangular causal relationship in Malaysia. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 7(2): 185-206. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801013483503
[8] Chou, M. C. 2013. Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 33: 226–232 Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.024
[9] Collier, P., and Dercon, S. 2014. African agriculture in 50 years: Smallholders in a rapidly changing world. World Development, 63(10): 92–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.10.001
[10] Cortes-Jimenez, I., and Pulina, M. 2010. Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1): 61-74. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500802684411
[11] Dorosh, P., and Thurlow, J. 2013. Agriculture and small towns in Africa. Agricultural Economics, 44: 435–445. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15740862
[12] Dorosh, P., and Thurlow, J. 2014. Can cities or towns drive African development? Economywide analysis for Ethiopia and Uganda. World Development, 63(10): 113–123. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.10.014
[13] Dorosh, P., and Thurlow, J. 2016. Beyond Agriculture versus Non-Agriculture: Decomposing Sectoral Growth–Poverty Linkages in Five African Countries, World Development. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.014
[14] Feng, C., Wang, M., Liu, G-C, and Huang, J-B. 2017. Sources of economic growth in China from 2000–2013 and its further sustainable growth path: A three-hierarchy meta-frontier data envelopment analysis. Economic Modelling, 64: 334–348. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.04.007
[15] Hazell, P. B. R. 2013. Options for African agriculture in an era of high food and energy prices. Agricultural Economics, 44(Supplement): 19–27. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12047
[16] Inwood, S. 2017. Agriculture, health insurance, human capital and economic development at the rural-urban-interface. Journal of Rural Studies 54: 1-14. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.05.009
[17] Kadir, N., and Karim, M. Z. A. 2012. Tourism and economic growth in Malaysia: evidence from tourist arrivals from ASEAN-5 countries. Ekonomska Istrazivanja- Economic Research, 25(4): 1089-1100. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2012.11517550
[18] Lawal A. I., Kazi P. K., Adeoti O. J., Osuma G. O., Akinmulegun S. and Ilo B. 2017. Capital Flight and the Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria. Binus Business Review, 8(1): 171 – 177. Available at: https://10.21512/bbr.v8i2.2090
[19] Lawal I. A., Atunde I. O. and Ahmed, V., Asaleye, A. 2016b. Exchange Rate Fluctuation and the Nigeria Economic Growth. EuroEconomica 35(2): 124 – 138. Available at: www.euroeconomica-danubius.ro/
[20] Lawal I. A., Babalola B. M, Otekunrin A. O. and Adeoti J. O. 2016c: External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 12(6): 179 -194. Available at: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/3655
[21] Lawal, A. I., Nwanji, T. I., Asaleye, A. and Ahmed, V. 2016a. Economic growth, financial development and trade openness in Nigeria: An application of the ARDL bound testing approach. Cogent Economics and Finance, 4:1258810. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2016.1258810
[22] Lawal, A. I., Somoye, R.O.C., Babajide A. A. and Nwanji, T. I. 2018. The effect of fiscal and monetary policies interaction on stock market performance: Evidence from Nigeria. Future Business Journal, 4(1): 16 – 33. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.11.004
[23] Ohlan, R. 2017.The relationship between tourism, financial development and economic growth in India. Future Business Journal, 3(2): 9–22. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.01.003
[24] Othman, R., Salleh, N. H. M., and Sarmidi, T. 2012. Analysis of causal relationship between tourism development, economic growth and foreign direct investment: an ARDL approach. Journal of Applied Sciences, 12(12): 1245-1254. Available at: https://scialert.net/abstract/?doi=jas.2012.1245.1254
[25] Oye, O. O., Lawal, A. I., Eneogu A., and IseOlorunkanmi, J. O. 2018. Does exchange rate devaluation affect agricultural output? Evidence from Nigeria. Binus Business Review, 9(2): 115-123. Available at: www.journal.binus.ac.id/index.php/BBR/index
[26] Perles, J., Ramon, A., Rubia, A., and Moreno, L. 2016. Economic crisis and tourism competitiveness in Spain: Permanent effects or transitory shocks? Current Issues in Tourism, 19(12): 1210-1234 Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.849666
[27] Perles-Ribes, J. F., Ramon-Rodríguez, A. B., Rubia, A. and Moreno-Izquierdo, L. 2017. Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid after the global economic and financial crisis? The case of Spain 1957-2014. Tourism Management, 61: 96 -109. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.003
[28] Sebri, M., and Abid, M. 2012. Energy use for economic growth: A trivariate analysis from Tunisian agriculture sector. Energy Policy 48: 711–716. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.006
[29] Streifeneder, T. 2016. Agriculture first: Assessing European policies and scientific typologies to define authentic agritourism and differentiate it from countryside tourism. Tourism Management Perspectives, 20: 251–264. Available at: https://doi.org10.1016/j.tmp.2016.10.003
[30] Tang, C. F. 2011. Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Malaysia? A view from disaggregated tourism markets. International Journal of Tourism Research, 13(1): 97 -101. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.807
[31] Tang, C. F. 2013. Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics relationship between real tourism receipts, real income, real exchange rates in Malaysia. International Journal of Tourism Research, 15(3): 272-284. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.1869
[32] Tang, C. F., and Tan, E. C. 2013. How stable is the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? A view from disaggregated tourism markets. Tourism Management, 37: 52-57. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.12.014
[33] Tang, C.F. and Abosedra, S. 2016. Tourism and growth in Lebanon: New evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches. Empirical Economics, 50(2): 679–696. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0944-9
[34] Tang, C.F., Tiwari, A. K., and Shahbaz, M. 2016. Dynamic inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India. Geosystem Engineering, 19(4): 158–169. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/12269328.2016.1162113
[35] Tang, C.F., and Tan, E.C. 2015. Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth? Tourism Management, 46: 158–163. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.06.020
[36] Tang, C.H., and Jang, S.S. 2009. The tourism–economy causality in the United States: A sub-industry level examination. Tourism Management, 30(4): 553–558. Available at: 10.1016/j.tourman.2008.09.009
[37] Tugcu, C.T. 2014. Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42: 207–212. Available at: 10.1016/j.tourman.2013.12.007
[38] Yamaguchi, M. and Kinugasa, Y. 2014. Economic analysis using the overlapping generations model and general equilibrium growth accounting for the Japanese economy: population, agriculture and economic development. World Scientific Publishing Company, Singapore ISBN-13: 978-9814571487
[2] Antonakakis, N., Dragouni M., and Filis, G. 2014. How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe? Economic Modelling, 44: 142–155. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.018
[3] Asaleye, A. J., Fashina, O. A., Ogunjobi, J. O. and Lawal, A. I. 2018. Foreign aid, human capital and economic growth nexus: Evidence from Nigeria. Accepted for publication in Journal of International Studies 11(2) (www.jois.eu)
[4] Babajide, A. A. and Lawal, A. I. 2016. Macroeconomic behaviour and FDI inflows in Nigeria: an application of the ARDL model. British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 11(1): 84 – 107. Available at: www.ajournal.co.uk/BJEFM.htm
[5] Babajide, A. A., Lawal, A. I. and Somoye, R. O. 2015. Monetary Policy Dynamics and the Stock Market Movements: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 8(38): 1179 – 1188. Available at: www.cesmaa.eu/journals/jaes/
[6] Brida, J., Cortes-Jimenez, I., and Pulina, M. 2014. Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5): 394-430. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.868414
[7] Cheam, C. L., Mahmood, R., Abdullah, H., and Ong, S. C. 2013. Economic growth, tourism and selected macroeconomic variables: a triangular causal relationship in Malaysia. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 7(2): 185-206. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801013483503
[8] Chou, M. C. 2013. Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 33: 226–232 Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.024
[9] Collier, P., and Dercon, S. 2014. African agriculture in 50 years: Smallholders in a rapidly changing world. World Development, 63(10): 92–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.10.001
[10] Cortes-Jimenez, I., and Pulina, M. 2010. Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1): 61-74. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500802684411
[11] Dorosh, P., and Thurlow, J. 2013. Agriculture and small towns in Africa. Agricultural Economics, 44: 435–445. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15740862
[12] Dorosh, P., and Thurlow, J. 2014. Can cities or towns drive African development? Economywide analysis for Ethiopia and Uganda. World Development, 63(10): 113–123. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.10.014
[13] Dorosh, P., and Thurlow, J. 2016. Beyond Agriculture versus Non-Agriculture: Decomposing Sectoral Growth–Poverty Linkages in Five African Countries, World Development. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.014
[14] Feng, C., Wang, M., Liu, G-C, and Huang, J-B. 2017. Sources of economic growth in China from 2000–2013 and its further sustainable growth path: A three-hierarchy meta-frontier data envelopment analysis. Economic Modelling, 64: 334–348. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.04.007
[15] Hazell, P. B. R. 2013. Options for African agriculture in an era of high food and energy prices. Agricultural Economics, 44(Supplement): 19–27. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12047
[16] Inwood, S. 2017. Agriculture, health insurance, human capital and economic development at the rural-urban-interface. Journal of Rural Studies 54: 1-14. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.05.009
[17] Kadir, N., and Karim, M. Z. A. 2012. Tourism and economic growth in Malaysia: evidence from tourist arrivals from ASEAN-5 countries. Ekonomska Istrazivanja- Economic Research, 25(4): 1089-1100. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2012.11517550
[18] Lawal A. I., Kazi P. K., Adeoti O. J., Osuma G. O., Akinmulegun S. and Ilo B. 2017. Capital Flight and the Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria. Binus Business Review, 8(1): 171 – 177. Available at: https://10.21512/bbr.v8i2.2090
[19] Lawal I. A., Atunde I. O. and Ahmed, V., Asaleye, A. 2016b. Exchange Rate Fluctuation and the Nigeria Economic Growth. EuroEconomica 35(2): 124 – 138. Available at: www.euroeconomica-danubius.ro/
[20] Lawal I. A., Babalola B. M, Otekunrin A. O. and Adeoti J. O. 2016c: External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 12(6): 179 -194. Available at: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/3655
[21] Lawal, A. I., Nwanji, T. I., Asaleye, A. and Ahmed, V. 2016a. Economic growth, financial development and trade openness in Nigeria: An application of the ARDL bound testing approach. Cogent Economics and Finance, 4:1258810. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2016.1258810
[22] Lawal, A. I., Somoye, R.O.C., Babajide A. A. and Nwanji, T. I. 2018. The effect of fiscal and monetary policies interaction on stock market performance: Evidence from Nigeria. Future Business Journal, 4(1): 16 – 33. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.11.004
[23] Ohlan, R. 2017.The relationship between tourism, financial development and economic growth in India. Future Business Journal, 3(2): 9–22. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2017.01.003
[24] Othman, R., Salleh, N. H. M., and Sarmidi, T. 2012. Analysis of causal relationship between tourism development, economic growth and foreign direct investment: an ARDL approach. Journal of Applied Sciences, 12(12): 1245-1254. Available at: https://scialert.net/abstract/?doi=jas.2012.1245.1254
[25] Oye, O. O., Lawal, A. I., Eneogu A., and IseOlorunkanmi, J. O. 2018. Does exchange rate devaluation affect agricultural output? Evidence from Nigeria. Binus Business Review, 9(2): 115-123. Available at: www.journal.binus.ac.id/index.php/BBR/index
[26] Perles, J., Ramon, A., Rubia, A., and Moreno, L. 2016. Economic crisis and tourism competitiveness in Spain: Permanent effects or transitory shocks? Current Issues in Tourism, 19(12): 1210-1234 Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.849666
[27] Perles-Ribes, J. F., Ramon-Rodríguez, A. B., Rubia, A. and Moreno-Izquierdo, L. 2017. Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid after the global economic and financial crisis? The case of Spain 1957-2014. Tourism Management, 61: 96 -109. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.003
[28] Sebri, M., and Abid, M. 2012. Energy use for economic growth: A trivariate analysis from Tunisian agriculture sector. Energy Policy 48: 711–716. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.006
[29] Streifeneder, T. 2016. Agriculture first: Assessing European policies and scientific typologies to define authentic agritourism and differentiate it from countryside tourism. Tourism Management Perspectives, 20: 251–264. Available at: https://doi.org10.1016/j.tmp.2016.10.003
[30] Tang, C. F. 2011. Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Malaysia? A view from disaggregated tourism markets. International Journal of Tourism Research, 13(1): 97 -101. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.807
[31] Tang, C. F. 2013. Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics relationship between real tourism receipts, real income, real exchange rates in Malaysia. International Journal of Tourism Research, 15(3): 272-284. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.1869
[32] Tang, C. F., and Tan, E. C. 2013. How stable is the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? A view from disaggregated tourism markets. Tourism Management, 37: 52-57. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.12.014
[33] Tang, C.F. and Abosedra, S. 2016. Tourism and growth in Lebanon: New evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches. Empirical Economics, 50(2): 679–696. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0944-9
[34] Tang, C.F., Tiwari, A. K., and Shahbaz, M. 2016. Dynamic inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India. Geosystem Engineering, 19(4): 158–169. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/12269328.2016.1162113
[35] Tang, C.F., and Tan, E.C. 2015. Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth? Tourism Management, 46: 158–163. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.06.020
[36] Tang, C.H., and Jang, S.S. 2009. The tourism–economy causality in the United States: A sub-industry level examination. Tourism Management, 30(4): 553–558. Available at: 10.1016/j.tourman.2008.09.009
[37] Tugcu, C.T. 2014. Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42: 207–212. Available at: 10.1016/j.tourman.2013.12.007
[38] Yamaguchi, M. and Kinugasa, Y. 2014. Economic analysis using the overlapping generations model and general equilibrium growth accounting for the Japanese economy: population, agriculture and economic development. World Scientific Publishing Company, Singapore ISBN-13: 978-9814571487
Published
2018-10-22
How to Cite
LAWAL, Adedoyin Isola et al.
Economic Growth, Agricultural Output and Tourism Development in Nigeria: An Application of the ARDL Bound Testing Approach.
Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, [S.l.], v. 9, n. 4, p. 786-794, oct. 2018.
ISSN 2068-7729.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jemt/article/view/2360>. Date accessed: 19 nov. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505//jemt.v9.4(28).12.
Section
Article
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). Published by ASERS Publishing 2024. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of CC-BY 4.0 license.