Scenario Forecasting of the Reproduction Process in the Agriculture in View of Inflation

  • Andrey N. BAYDAKOV Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russia
  • Lyudmila I. CHERNIKOVA Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russia
  • Anton V. NAZARENKO Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russia
  • Dmitry V. ZAPOROZHETS Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russia
  • Darya V. SIDOROVA Stavropol State Agrarian University, Stavropol, Russia


The article views the contradiction between competitiveness of agricultural organizations in the modern economic conditions, which are characterized by sustainable rates of creeping inflation and the impossibility for recreation of the totality of resources due to the macro-economic instability. The analysis showed a lot of drawbacks of the existing approaches and methods to evaluation of effectiveness of the reproduction process of the agrarian sector of economy. That’s why, for the purpose of studying the dynamic characteristics of the reproduction processes in agriculture of Stavropol Krai, a system of equations was build, which supposes each of the equations system’s parameters belonging to a certain interval, determined on the basis of statistical data or by expert evaluation. This predetermined the expedience of using the scenario forecasting. Each of the formed scenarios received hypersurfaces of change of the coefficient of the fixed production assets renovation intensity in time, which reflect a substantial non-linear interconnection between the reproduction and inflation tendencies. Based on the results of the performed research, each level of the sphere management was assigned a system of measures, including the supporting measures – in the conditions of implementing the optimistic scenario of the reproduction process development, and correcting measures – in the conditions of the pessimistic scenario of the reproduction process development.


[1] Babkina, О.N. 2015. Methods of forecasting in agro-industrial complex. Volume: Economic and information aspects of region’s development: theory and practice. International scientific and practical conference. Stavropol State Agrarian University, 50-51 pp.
[2] Baydakov, А.N., Kenina, D.S. 2014. Evaluation of effectiveness of entrepreneurial decisions. Volume: Development of entrepreneurship: problems, tendencies, and perspectives. All-Russian scientific and practical conference devoted to the Day of Russian entrepreneurship. Stavropol State Agrarian University, 14-21 pp.
[3] Beketova, S.V., Petrovskaya, А.А., Zaporozhets, D.V. 2015. SWOT analysis in strategic management. Volume: Actual Problems of Economics and Management. Transregional Scientific and Practical Conference, 5-9 pp.
[4] Berezhnaya, Е.V. 2001. Mathematical methods of economic systems modeling: study guide. М.: Finance and Statistics, 368 p.
[5] Chernikova, L.I. 2013. Reproduction of fixed assets of agriculture in the conditions of inflation: Ph.D. thesis: 08.00.05 / Stavropol State Agrarian University. Stavropol, 146 p.
[6] Kenina, D.S., Zaporozhets, D.V. 2013. Technology of decision making: personal factor. Economics and Management in the 21st Century: Tendencies of Development, 13: 275-280.
[7] Kenina, D.S. 2012. Modern identification of problems as a basis of effective management in entrepreneurship. Economics and Entrepreneurship, 5: 328-331.
[8] Kenina, D.S. 2013. Technologies of decision making in entrepreneurship. Bulletin of Stavropol Agro-Industrial Complex, 1 (9): 94-96.
[9] Korshikova, M.V., Belikova, I.P., Sakhnyuk, T.I., Sakhnyuk, P.A., Svistunova, I.G. 2016 Methodological provision of active management of economic risk in agrarian business. European Research Studies Journal. Special Issue, 19 (2) :113-124.
[10] Kostyuchenko, T.N., Sidorova, D.V. 2013. Imitation modeling of the reproduction process as a tool for substantiating the directions of state support for agricultural companies. Modern Studies of the Social Problems (electronic scientific journal), 5 (25): 40.
[11] Levushkina, S.V. 2013 Methodology of determination and assessment aspects of new qualitative characteristics of sustainable economic growth of small business. Management of Economic Systems: Electronic Scientific Journal, 12 (60): 18.
[12] Nazarenko, А.V., Babkina, О.N. 2013. Theoretical foundations of forecasting in socio-economic systems. The Problems of Economics and Management, 12 (28): 95-98.
[13] Nazarenko, А.V. 2008. Short-term forecasting of vine yield on the basis of multi-factor dynamic modeling. Wine-making and Winegrowing, 6: 6-8.
[14] Nikitenko, G.V., Sergienko, E.G., Zvyagintseva, O.S. 2016. The main tasks of modeling socio-economic processes. International Journal of Professional Science, 1: 238-243.
[15] Schmitz, P.M. 2009. Agrarpolitik 2020 // Archiv der DLG/Dt. Landwirtschafts -Ges. е. V. Frankfurt am Main, Bd. 103, Available at:
[16] Schultz, T.W. 1960. Capital Formation by Education. Journal of Political Economy, 68: 571 – 583.
[17] Semko, I.A., Altukhova, L.А. 2013. Directions of formation of the mechanism of provision of organization’s competitiveness. European Social Science Journal, 11-2 (38): 400-404.
[18] Semlo, I.A., Altukhova, L.А. 2011. Methodology of the complex evaluation of the level of competitiveness of agricultural entrepreneurial structures. Russian Entrepreneurship, 10-1: 125-131.
[19] Sidorova, D.V., Kostyuchenko, Т.N., Tsymbalenko, Y.V. 2014. Clustering of the agricultural companies of Stavropol Krai as to the type of reproduction process. Economics and Entrepreneurship, 1-3: 210-216.
*** Decree of the Government of the RF dated July 14, 2012, No. 717 “On the state program of development of agriculture and regulation of the markets of agricultural products, resources, and food for 2013-2020” (2012) // Collection of laws of the RF, 32: 45 – 49.
*** Russian in numbers 2016: Short statistical bulletin / Rosstat- M., 558 p.
*** The Russian statistical yearbook 2010: Statistical bulletin / Rosstat. - М., 813 p.
How to Cite
BAYDAKOV, Andrey N. et al. Scenario Forecasting of the Reproduction Process in the Agriculture in View of Inflation. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, [S.l.], v. 8, n. 3, p. 620-628, oct. 2017. ISSN 2068-7729. Available at: <>. Date accessed: 25 june 2022. doi: