From Capital Deepening to Productivity-Driven Growth: Reassessing the Quality - Quantity Debate in Indonesia
Abstract
This research examines whether economic growth is mainly caused by an increase in the amount of capital that is accumulated versus an increase in the quality of the capital that is used in the context of the long-term development of Indonesia. In this study, the ARDL model was used to analyse the differences between the effects of capital quantity, proxied by gross fixed capital formation and capital quality, proxied by total factor productivity (TFP), using time series data spanning the years 1967 to 2023. Labor is used as a control variable. The long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables has been established and is confirmed by the results. In the short run, the accumulation of physical capital has a significant effect on economic growth; however, in the long run, there is no statistically significant effect. In the long run, growth in TFP has a robust positive impact. While 19% of the short-run disequilibrium is corrected by the error correction term annually, indicating a stable adjustment mechanism. The results of this research indicate that the growth sustainability of Indonesia is highly dependent on an improvement in the productivity performance as opposed to the volume of the investment that is made. The results also indicate that productivity improvement is the most important factor, while the effect of capital deepening is reduced, and the productivity growth is sustained, thus the economic growth is sustained. This study aids the growth literature and Indonesia’s structural transformation challenges by empirically disentangling capital quantity from capital quality. Under the Indonesia Emas 2045 vision, the most important prerequisite for attaining high-income status is the transition to a productivity-driven growth regime.
References
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Cervellati, M., Meyerheim, G., & Sunde, U. (2023). The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: A unified growth perspective. Journal of Economic Growth, 28, 173–224. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-022-09216-2
Cooper, R. W., & Schott, I. (2023). Capital reallocation and the cyclicality of aggregate productivity. Quantitative Economics, 14(4), 1337–1365. https://doi.org/10.3982/QE1892
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Dolgunova, A. Ts. (2023). Assessment of the impact of investments in fixed capital on the economic growth of the Northern regions of the Russian Federation. Statistics and Economics, 20(6), 35–47. https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-6-35-47
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Furuoka, F., Pui, K. L., Ezeoke, C., Jacob, R. I., & Yaya, O. S. (2024). Growth slowdowns and middle-income trap: Evidence from new unit root framework. The Singapore Economic Review, 69(1), 461–477. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590820500083
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Georgescu, I., & Kinnunen, J. (2023). The role of foreign direct investments, urbanization, productivity, and energy consumption in Finland’s carbon emissions: An ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(37), 87685–87694. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28680-w
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Giombini, G., Grassetti, F., & Sanchez Carrera, E. (2023). Economic growth, poverty traps and cycles: Productive capacities versus inefficiencies. Journal of Economic Studies, 50(7), 1375–1398. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-06-2022-0365
Haider, F., Kunst, R., & Wirl, F. (2021). Total factor productivity, its components and drivers. Empirica, 48(2), 283–327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-020-09476-4
Huda, Q., & Istiana, N. (2024). Economic globalization, economic growth, and human capital: Empirical evidence using three-stage least squares in Indonesia. Barekeng: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications, 18(3), 1483–1496. https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1483-1496
Hughes, B. B., & Narayan, K. (2021). Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity. PLOS ONE, 16(2), Article e0246797. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246797
Jones, C. I. (2022). The past and future of economic growth: A semi-endogenous perspective. Annual Review of Economics, 14, 125–152. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080521-012458
Kamuhuza, A., & Jianya, G. (2022). Statistical analysis of factors influencing economic growth in Zambia. International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology, 10(12). https://doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2022.41160
Kapotwe, B. (2021). A study on the relationship between developing countries and the middle-income trap: A narrative in the Zambian perspective. Modern Economy, 12(2). https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2021.122019
Keshminder, J. S., Woźniak, M., Kusa, R., Ridzuan, A. R., & Erum, N. (2025). Endogenous growth and the influence of information and communication technology on Poland’s economic trajectory. Open Research Europe, 5. https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.19945.1
Khellat, M., Bouich, A., Baddih, H., & Pradas, I. G. (2023). Investigation of factors involved in Moroccan economic development. E3S Web of Conferences, 412, Article 01099. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202341201099
Kurteš, S., Amidžić, S., & Kurušić, D. (2022). Relationship between foreign direct investments, openness and economic growth: Evidence from developing countries. EMC Review—Časopis za ekonomiju—APEIRON, 24(2). https://doi.org/10.7251/emc2202434k
Law, S. H., Sarmidi, T., & Goh, L. T. (2020). Impact of innovation on economic growth: Evidence from Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 57(1). https://doi.org/10.22452/MJES.vol57no1.6
Liu, D., Xu, B., Song, Y., & Wang, Q. (2023). What drives China’s long-term economic growth trend? A re-measurement based on a time-varying mixed-frequency dynamic factor model. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(3), 741–774. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18705
Lucas, R. E., Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
Masatoshi, H. (2025). Higher education for economic development: Contexts of escaping low-and-lower-middle-income trap in ASEAN. Discover Education, 4, Article 288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44217-025-00744-8
Mengesha, Z. D., & Singh, L. (2023). Human capital accumulation and economic growth of Ethiopian economy. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/20421338.2022.2062652
Miar. (2025). Achieving wellbeing through economic growth and the role of social factors in sustainable development. Discover Sustainability, 6, Article 1047. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01947-7
Oliveira, H., Moutinho, V. F., & Afonso, O. (2025). Exploring the relationship between technological progress, human capital, political uncertainty, energy consumption, and economic growth: Evidence from a panel data analysis. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02431-9
Pasara, M. T., & Garidzirai, R. (2020). Causality effects among gross capital formation, unemployment and economic growth in South Africa. Economies, 8(2), Article 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8020026
Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1996). Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium. Journal of Econometrics, 71(1–2), 117–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01697-6
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Qi, Y., & Chu, X. (2022). Development of the digital economy, transformation of the economic structure and leaping of the middle-income trap. China Political Economy, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1108/CPE-09-2022-0012
Quan, D. H. M., & Phuoc, N. K. (2021). Contribution of TFP to economic growth of Dong Thap province: Current status and scenarios for the period 2021–2025. Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of Science—Economics and Business Administration, 11(2), 53–66. https://doi.org/10.46223/HCMCOUJS.econ.en.11.2.1461.2021
Rahman, M. M., & Velayutham, E. (2020). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus: New evidence from South Asia. Renewable Energy, 147, 399–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.09.007
Rapetti, M. (2020). The real exchange rate and economic growth: A survey. Journal of Globalization and Development, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2019-0024
Romer, P. M. (1994). The origins of endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.8.1.3
Salawali, W. A., Nursini, N., Nurbayani, S. U., & Fitrianti, R. (2025). Relevance of investment, economic growth and labor force in Indonesia: An empirical analysis. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-758-8_26
Salimova, G., Ableeva, A., Lubova, T., Habirov, G., & Sharafutdinov, A. (2021). Structural and dynamic changes in economy and labor productivity. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 17(4). https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2021.17-4.10
Schlögl, L., & Sumner, A. (2020). Economic development and structural transformation. In Disrupted development and the future of inequality in the age of automation. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30131-6_2
Šlander Wostner, S., Križanič, F., Brezovnik, B., & Vojinović, B. (2023). Total factor productivity and the significance of the public sector. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 2023(69), Article 7. https://doi.org/10.24193/tras.69E.7
Sun, C., Abbas, H. S. M., Xu, X., Gillani, S., Ullah, S., & Raza, M. A. A. (2023). Role of capital investment, investment risks, and globalization in economic growth. International Journal of Finance & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2514
Tanaya, O., & Suyanto, S. (2022). The causal nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Periodica Polytechnica Social and Management Sciences, 30(1). https://doi.org/10.3311/PPso.16799
Thach, N. N. (2025). Human capital’s dual impact: Advancing innovation and technology diffusion in ASEAN-5 through the Nelson-Phelps-Romer lens. PLOS ONE, 20(11), Article e0333784. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0333784
Thawley, C., Crystallin, M., & Verico, K. (2024). Towards a higher growth path for Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 60(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2432035
Topcu, E., Altinoz, B., & Aslan, A. (2020). Global evidence from the link between economic growth, natural resources, energy consumption, and gross capital formation. Resources Policy, 66, Article 101622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101622
Walheer, B., & Bignandi, S. (2024). Have countries accumulated enough capital? A non-parametric approach. Applied Economics Letters.
Agbolosoo, J. A., Septya, F., & Hutagoal, M. P. (2025). Indonesia’s economic growth: Role of human capital, physical capital, and social infrastructure. Management of Sustainable Development, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.54989/msd-2025-0008
Agusalim, L., Anggraeni, L., & Pasaribu, S. H. (2022). The economy of Indonesia: Driven by physical or human capital? JEJAK, 15(1), 10–28. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v15i1.34418
Alani, J., Yawe, B., & Mutenyo, J. (2023). Effects of technological progress and productivity on economic growth in Uganda: A generalized least squares approach. Arab Economic and Business Journal, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.38039/2214-4625.1033
Bacovic, M. (2021). Total factor productivity growth in upper middle-income Balkan countries from 2000–2017, total economy and sectoral approach: The growth accounting method. Argumenta Oeconomica, 46(1), 79–97. https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2021.1.04
Cervellati, M., Meyerheim, G., & Sunde, U. (2023). The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: A unified growth perspective. Journal of Economic Growth, 28, 173–224. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-022-09216-2
Cooper, R. W., & Schott, I. (2023). Capital reallocation and the cyclicality of aggregate productivity. Quantitative Economics, 14(4), 1337–1365. https://doi.org/10.3982/QE1892
Corrado, C., Haskel, J., Jona-Lasinio, C., & Iommi, M. (2022). Intangible capital and modern economies. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(3), 3–28. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.3.3
Dolgunova, A. Ts. (2023). Assessment of the impact of investments in fixed capital on the economic growth of the Northern regions of the Russian Federation. Statistics and Economics, 20(6), 35–47. https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-6-35-47
Dykas, P., Tokarski, T., & Wisła, R. (2022). The Solow model of economic growth: Application to contemporary macroeconomic issues. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003323792
Felipe, J., & McCombie, J. (2020). The illusions of calculating total factor productivity and testing growth models: From Cobb–Douglas to Solow and Romer. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 43(3), 470–513. https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2020.1774393
Furuoka, F., Pui, K. L., Ezeoke, C., Jacob, R. I., & Yaya, O. S. (2024). Growth slowdowns and middle-income trap: Evidence from new unit root framework. The Singapore Economic Review, 69(1), 461–477. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590820500083
Gao, Z. (2021). China’s economic transformation and industrial upgrading under the new normal. In Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2021) (Vol. 166). Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210319.007
Georgescu, I., & Kinnunen, J. (2023). The role of foreign direct investments, urbanization, productivity, and energy consumption in Finland’s carbon emissions: An ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(37), 87685–87694. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28680-w
Ghouma, G., Becha, H., Kalai, M., & Helali, K. (2024). Impact of cost of capital on European economic growth: The role of IFRS mandatory adoption. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 71(2). https://doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2024-0012
Giombini, G., Grassetti, F., & Sanchez Carrera, E. (2023). Economic growth, poverty traps and cycles: Productive capacities versus inefficiencies. Journal of Economic Studies, 50(7), 1375–1398. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-06-2022-0365
Haider, F., Kunst, R., & Wirl, F. (2021). Total factor productivity, its components and drivers. Empirica, 48(2), 283–327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-020-09476-4
Huda, Q., & Istiana, N. (2024). Economic globalization, economic growth, and human capital: Empirical evidence using three-stage least squares in Indonesia. Barekeng: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications, 18(3), 1483–1496. https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1483-1496
Hughes, B. B., & Narayan, K. (2021). Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity. PLOS ONE, 16(2), Article e0246797. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246797
Jones, C. I. (2022). The past and future of economic growth: A semi-endogenous perspective. Annual Review of Economics, 14, 125–152. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080521-012458
Kamuhuza, A., & Jianya, G. (2022). Statistical analysis of factors influencing economic growth in Zambia. International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology, 10(12). https://doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2022.41160
Kapotwe, B. (2021). A study on the relationship between developing countries and the middle-income trap: A narrative in the Zambian perspective. Modern Economy, 12(2). https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2021.122019
Keshminder, J. S., Woźniak, M., Kusa, R., Ridzuan, A. R., & Erum, N. (2025). Endogenous growth and the influence of information and communication technology on Poland’s economic trajectory. Open Research Europe, 5. https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.19945.1
Khellat, M., Bouich, A., Baddih, H., & Pradas, I. G. (2023). Investigation of factors involved in Moroccan economic development. E3S Web of Conferences, 412, Article 01099. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202341201099
Kurteš, S., Amidžić, S., & Kurušić, D. (2022). Relationship between foreign direct investments, openness and economic growth: Evidence from developing countries. EMC Review—Časopis za ekonomiju—APEIRON, 24(2). https://doi.org/10.7251/emc2202434k
Law, S. H., Sarmidi, T., & Goh, L. T. (2020). Impact of innovation on economic growth: Evidence from Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 57(1). https://doi.org/10.22452/MJES.vol57no1.6
Liu, D., Xu, B., Song, Y., & Wang, Q. (2023). What drives China’s long-term economic growth trend? A re-measurement based on a time-varying mixed-frequency dynamic factor model. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(3), 741–774. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18705
Lucas, R. E., Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
Masatoshi, H. (2025). Higher education for economic development: Contexts of escaping low-and-lower-middle-income trap in ASEAN. Discover Education, 4, Article 288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44217-025-00744-8
Mengesha, Z. D., & Singh, L. (2023). Human capital accumulation and economic growth of Ethiopian economy. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/20421338.2022.2062652
Miar. (2025). Achieving wellbeing through economic growth and the role of social factors in sustainable development. Discover Sustainability, 6, Article 1047. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01947-7
Oliveira, H., Moutinho, V. F., & Afonso, O. (2025). Exploring the relationship between technological progress, human capital, political uncertainty, energy consumption, and economic growth: Evidence from a panel data analysis. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02431-9
Pasara, M. T., & Garidzirai, R. (2020). Causality effects among gross capital formation, unemployment and economic growth in South Africa. Economies, 8(2), Article 26. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8020026
Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1996). Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium. Journal of Econometrics, 71(1–2), 117–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01697-6
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Qi, Y., & Chu, X. (2022). Development of the digital economy, transformation of the economic structure and leaping of the middle-income trap. China Political Economy, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1108/CPE-09-2022-0012
Quan, D. H. M., & Phuoc, N. K. (2021). Contribution of TFP to economic growth of Dong Thap province: Current status and scenarios for the period 2021–2025. Ho Chi Minh City Open University Journal of Science—Economics and Business Administration, 11(2), 53–66. https://doi.org/10.46223/HCMCOUJS.econ.en.11.2.1461.2021
Rahman, M. M., & Velayutham, E. (2020). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus: New evidence from South Asia. Renewable Energy, 147, 399–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.09.007
Rapetti, M. (2020). The real exchange rate and economic growth: A survey. Journal of Globalization and Development, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2019-0024
Romer, P. M. (1994). The origins of endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.8.1.3
Salawali, W. A., Nursini, N., Nurbayani, S. U., & Fitrianti, R. (2025). Relevance of investment, economic growth and labor force in Indonesia: An empirical analysis. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-758-8_26
Salimova, G., Ableeva, A., Lubova, T., Habirov, G., & Sharafutdinov, A. (2021). Structural and dynamic changes in economy and labor productivity. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 17(4). https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2021.17-4.10
Schlögl, L., & Sumner, A. (2020). Economic development and structural transformation. In Disrupted development and the future of inequality in the age of automation. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30131-6_2
Šlander Wostner, S., Križanič, F., Brezovnik, B., & Vojinović, B. (2023). Total factor productivity and the significance of the public sector. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 2023(69), Article 7. https://doi.org/10.24193/tras.69E.7
Sun, C., Abbas, H. S. M., Xu, X., Gillani, S., Ullah, S., & Raza, M. A. A. (2023). Role of capital investment, investment risks, and globalization in economic growth. International Journal of Finance & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2514
Tanaya, O., & Suyanto, S. (2022). The causal nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Periodica Polytechnica Social and Management Sciences, 30(1). https://doi.org/10.3311/PPso.16799
Thach, N. N. (2025). Human capital’s dual impact: Advancing innovation and technology diffusion in ASEAN-5 through the Nelson-Phelps-Romer lens. PLOS ONE, 20(11), Article e0333784. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0333784
Thawley, C., Crystallin, M., & Verico, K. (2024). Towards a higher growth path for Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 60(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2432035
Topcu, E., Altinoz, B., & Aslan, A. (2020). Global evidence from the link between economic growth, natural resources, energy consumption, and gross capital formation. Resources Policy, 66, Article 101622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101622
Walheer, B., & Bignandi, S. (2024). Have countries accumulated enough capital? A non-parametric approach. Applied Economics Letters.
Published
2026-09-30
How to Cite
RUSYDI, Bahrul Ulum; PADDU, Abdul Hamid; SABIR, Sabir.
From Capital Deepening to Productivity-Driven Growth: Reassessing the Quality - Quantity Debate in Indonesia.
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 17, n. 3, p. 886 - 900, sep. 2026.
ISSN 2068-7710.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/9673>. Date accessed: 03 oct. 2026.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v17.3(39).18.
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