Financial Stability of the State in View of Growing Cryptocurrency Flows in Foreign Trade
Abstract
The relevance of the study is determined by the spread of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and the need to assess their impact on the financial stability of the state in the context of digital transformation. The aim of the study is to determine the impact of cryptocurrency flows in foreign trade on the financial stability of the state. The study analyses the impact of cryptocurrency flows in foreign trade on the financial stability of Ukraine in comparison with Poland and Romania in the context of digital transformation. The methodology is based on the creation of an integral Financial Stability Index (FSI) and econometric modelling of the relationships between cryptocurrency settlements, customs revenues, and customs digitalization. The results demonstrate common trends for Eastern European countries, but different sensitivity of financial stability to the growth of cryptocurrency flows. In 2020 - 2024, the share of cryptocurrency flows in Ukraine's foreign trade increased from 0.5% to 3.0%, while customs revenues decreased from 2.8% to 2.1% of GDP. Econometric results show that an increase in cryptocurrency transactions by 1 pp reduces the FSI by an average of 0.18 - 0.21 points. At the same time, an increase in the level of customs digitalization by 0.1 is associated with an increase in financial stability by approximately 0.02 - 0.03 points. Particular attention is paid to the impact of customs risks, digitalization of control, and structural financial changes. The methodology implies the creation of two econometric models that take into account the direct and moderating effects of cryptocurrency flows. The main model estimates the impact of the volume of cryptocurrency transactions, the share of cryptocurrency payments, customs revenues, loss risks, and customs digitalization. The extended model includes an interaction term that estimates the role of digitalization in reducing the negative impact of cryptocurrency flows. The main coefficients of the model confirm the negative impact of cryptocurrency flows on financial stability and the positive role of customs digitalization. The conclusions emphasize the need to strengthen control over cryptocurrency transactions, modernize customs technologies, and develop analytical monitoring tools. The results of the study can be used to develop practical recommendations for managing digital financial risks in foreign trade.
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