Ripple Effects of the Trump Tariff War: Implications for South Asia in the Context of Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Dynamics
Abstract
This paper explores the multifaceted effects of Donald Trump administration’s imposition of tariff policies on India through the lenses of geoeconomics and geopolitics, specifically within the South Asian context. Employing mercantilism and realism theories and utilising qualitative research methods, this paper argues and analyses that the Trump administration has adopted a transactional approach to its bilateral trade relations, notably with India. This study finds that the tariff policy toward India might have profound consequences, extending beyond bilateral trade between New Delhi and Washington, influencing the broader geopolitical and geoeconomic landscapes in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in South Asia. Small states in South Asia may face increased complexity due to their heavy engagements with both India and the United States, especially in the absence of negotiations between the two larger economies.
References
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[10] Choi, Y., Acharya, R. N., Devadoss, S., & Regmi, M. (2024). Effects of tariff and non tariff barriers on India US agricultural trade. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 47(1), 256–274. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13463
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[13] Devarajan, S., Go, D. S., Lakatos, C., Robinson, S., & Thierfelder, K. (2020). Traders’ dilemma: Developing countries’ response to trade wars. World Economy, 44(4), 856–878. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13062
[14] Egger, P. H., & Zhu, J. (2020). The US–Chinese trade war: An event study of stock-market responses. Economic Policy, 35(103), 519–559. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiaa016
[15] G, N. B. N., Sen, R., & Srivastava, S. (2023). The potential impact of tariff liberalisation on India’s automobile industry global value chain trade: Evidence from an economy-wide model. Foreign Trade Review, 60(1), 7–32. https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325231161931
[16] Goswami, N. G. G., Sarwar, N. M. R., Rahman, M., Panday, N. D. C., Ishita, N. I. J., Labib, T., & Motiram, N. N. V. (2023). Why did India pull out of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)? A gravity explanation of the Indian puzzle. Evergreen, 10(3), 1140–1155. https://doi.org/10.5109/7148433
[17] Grebenkina, S. A. (2025). Foreign practice of protecting national interests in foreign trade policy. Economic Problems and Legal Practice, 21(4), 154–158. https://doi.org/10.33693/2541-8025-2025-21-4-154-158
[18] Gul, N., & Yasin, H. M. (2011). The trade potential of Pakistan: An application of the gravity model. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 16(1), 23–62. https://doi.org/10.35536/lje.2011.v16.i1.a2
[19] Gupta, A., Patnaik, I., & Shah, A. (2018). Exporting and firm performance: Evidence from India. Indian Growth and Development Review, 12(1), 83–104. https://doi.org/10.1108/igdr-04-2018-0036
[20] Hasan, M. A. (2024). The dilemmas of Bangladesh as a weak state in South Asia. Public Administration and Policy, 27(3), 316–329. https://doi.org/10.1108/pap-01-2024-0010
[21] He, K., & Li, M. (2020). Understanding the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific: US–China strategic competition, regional actors, and beyond. International Affairs, 96(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz242
[22] Iqbal, J., Nosheen, M., & Wohar, M. (2023). Exchange rate volatility and India–US commodity trade: Evidence of the third country effect. Indian Economic Review, 58(S2), 359–398. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-023-00182-z
[23] Islam, A., Salim, R., & Bloch, H. (2016). Does regional integration affect efficiency and productivity growth? Empirical evidence from South Asia. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 28(2), 107–122. https://doi.org/10.1111/rurd.12048
[24] Jain, M. (2021). Was India right in not joining RCEP? A cost–benefit analysis. India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, 77(4), 542–559. https://doi.org/10.1177/09749284211047728
[25] Kaya, T. Ö., & Kılıç, F. (2017). Sino-Indian strategic rivalry in the Indian Ocean region. Journal of Humanity and Society (Insan & Toplum). https://doi.org/10.12658/human.society.7.14.m0223
[26] Kholid, M. (2022). The US–China trade war phenomenon (2018–2020) in economic diplomacy perspective. Politik Indonesia Indonesian Political Science Review, 7(1), 83–97. https://doi.org/10.15294/ipsr.v7i1.38488
[27] Kumar, R. (2020). South Asia: Multilateral trade agreements and untapped regional trade integration. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2891–2903. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1941
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[36] Shah, A., & Karki, S. (2024). Examining the systemic realities of India in the US-backed Indo-Pacific strategy. Stosunki Międzynarodowe/Stosunki Międzynarodowe, 3, 6. https://doi.org/10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17694.2
[37] Srivastava, U. K. (2024). A study of global trade war and its impact on Indian economy. International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2024.v06i02.14813
[38] Tiwari, N. K. (2025). The impact of US protectionist tariff policies on India: An analysis of exports, trade balance, and employment. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6480698/v1
[39] Turker, H. (2024). The oceanic triad. In Advances in Public Policy and Administration (APPA) book series (pp. 146–173). https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-1690-0.ch007
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[42] International Monetary Fund (IMF). (n.d.). Exports and imports. https://data.imf.org/en
[43] The Times of India. (2025, December 03). Trump tariff impact: India’s exports to US down 28.5% in 5 months; key sectors battered. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/trump-tariff-impact-indias-exports-to-us-down-28-5-in-5-months-key-sectors-battered/articleshow/125741837.cms
[44] U.S. Trade Representative. (2024a). Trade facts: U.S.-Bangladesh trade. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/bangladesh
[45] U.S. Trade Representative. (2024b). Trade facts: U.S.-India trade. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/india
[46] U.S. Trade Representative. (2024c). Trade facts: U.S.-Sri Lanka trade. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/sri-lanka
[47] US Census Bureau. (2019, April 15). International trade. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5330.html
Published
2025-12-30
How to Cite
HASAN, Md Abul; FERDOS, Jannatul; HABIB, Mohammad Ahsan.
Ripple Effects of the Trump Tariff War: Implications for South Asia in the Context of Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Dynamics.
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 16, n. 4, p. 959 - 971, dec. 2025.
ISSN 2068-7710.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/9262>. Date accessed: 29 dec. 2025.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v16.4(36).12.
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