The Impact of Trump Administration Tariffs on Global Trade and Commodity Prices
Abstract
This current research evaluates the impact of Trump-era tariffs on the trends of global trade and commodity prices, with specific focus on the overall implications of U.S. protectionist trade policy. Utilizing a multi-sector methodology, the research takes into account the implications of key tariff measures taken under Sections 232 and 301 of U.S. trade legislation, particularly those directed against steel, aluminium, and a broad range of Chinese imports. The article explores how these tariffs affected two-way trade flows - especially between the U.S. and China - and caused dramatic shifts in global supply chains, with production diverted more and more to countries like Vietnam and Mexico. The study also examines the sectoral impact on commodities, highlighting how U.S. agricultural exports such as soybeans and pork dropped due to Chinese retaliation, while metal and energy markets were affected by price volatility, supply chain congestion, and strategic restructuring. Results indicate that although the tariffs were intended to increase domestic production and restore trade deficits, they led to unintended consequences such as higher U.S. importers' expenses, reduced export competitiveness, and further uncertainty in commodity markets. The study concludes by indicating the long-term economic implications of trade wars on worldwide economic stability as well as the necessity of multilateral approaches to trade reform.
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[3] Ali, I., Ho, W., & Papadopoulos, T. (2025). Global value chains and geopolitical uncertainty: Disruption and transformation. Taylor & Francis.
[4] Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., & Weinstein, D. E. (2019). The impact of the 2018 tariffs on prices and welfare. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 187–210. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.187
[5] Anbumozhi, V., Kimura, F. K., & Thangavelu, S. M. (2020). Global supply chain resilience: Vulnerability and shifting risk management strategies. In Springer eBooks. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-2870-5_1
[6] Armstrong, S. (2025). From jobs to justice: The Trump era examined. Super Gringo Books.
[7] Autor, D., Beck, A., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. (2024). Help for the heartland? The employment and electoral effects of the Trump tariffs in the United States. https://doi.org/10.3386/w32082
[8] Balcilar, M., Daberechi, C. E., & Ciftci, H. (2023). Assessing the effects of natural resource extraction on carbon emissions and energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: A STIRPAT model approach. Sustainability, 15(12), 9676. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15129676
[9] Breyer, C., Khalili, S., Bogdanov, D., Ram, M., Oyewo, A. S., Aghahosseini, A., … Sovacool, B. K. (2022). On the history and future of 100% renewable energy systems research. IEEE Access, 10, 78176–78218. https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2022.3193402
[10] Carter, C. A., & Steinbach, S. (2020). The impact of retaliatory tariffs on agricultural and food trade. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3603777
[11] Chakraborty, D., & Dey, O. (2024). Influence of WTO and global dynamics on trade flows: A machine-generated literature overview. Springer Nature.
[12] Charles Rajesh Kumar, J., & Majid, M. A. (2020). Renewable energy for sustainable development in India: Current status, future prospects, challenges, employment, and investment opportunities. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-019-0232-1
[13] Choi, J., & Lim, S. (2022). Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 105(4), 1149–1175. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12351
[14] Chor, D., & Li, B. (2025). Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy. Journal of International Economics, 150, 103926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103926
[15] Coggan, P. (2025). The economic consequences of Mr Trump: What the trade war means for the world. Profile Books.
[16] Countryman, A. M., & Muhammad, A. (2018). Chinese trade retaliation may diminish U.S. wine export potential. Choices, 33(2). https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aaeach/273334.html
[17] Danyiel, S. B. (2024). Trump’s taxes and tariffs: No need to panic. Tariffs are not as scary as you think. Lions Den Publications.
[18] Dong, L., & Kouvelis, P. (2019). Impact of tariffs on global supply chain network configuration: Models, predictions, and future research. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 22(1), 25–35. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2019.0802
[19] Fajgelbaum, P., Goldberg, P., Kennedy, P., Khandelwal, A., & Taglioni, D. (2024). The US-China trade war and global reallocations. American Economic Review Insights, 6(2), 295–312. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20230094
[20] Fajgelbaum, P. D., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2022). The economic impacts of the US–China trade war. Annual Review of Economics, 14(1), 205–228. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-110410
[21] Fan, D., Yeung, A. C. L., Tang, C. S., Lo, C. K. Y., & Zhou, Y. (2022). Global operations and supply‐chain management under the political economy. Journal of Operations Management, 68(8), 816–823. https://doi.org/10.1002/joom.1232
[22] Feng, C., Huang, J.-B., & Wang, M. (2019). The sustainability of China’s metal industries: Features, challenges, and future focuses. Resources Policy, 60, 215–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.12.006
[23] Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. (2017). A monetary history of the United States, 1867–1960. In The SHAFR Guide Online. https://doi.org/10.1163/2468-1733_shafr_sim280020213
[24] Giri, A. K., Subedi, D., & Kassel, K. (2022). Analysis of the payments from the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program and the Market Facilitation Program to minority producers. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 46(1), 189–201. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13325
[25] Goulard, S. (2020). The impact of the US–China trade war on the European Union. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 12(1), 56–68. https://doi.org/10.1177/0974910119896642
[26] Grant, J. H., Arita, S., Emlinger, C., Johansson, R., & Xie, C. (2021). Agricultural exports and retaliatory trade actions: An empirical assessment of the 2018/2019 trade conflict. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(2), 619–640. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13138
[27] Grossman, G. M., Helpman, E., & Redding, S. J. (2024). When tariffs disrupt global supply chain. American Economic Review, 114(4), 988–1029. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20211519
[28] Handley, K., Kamal, F., & Monarch, R. (2020). Rising import tariffs, falling export growth: When modern supply chains meet old-style protectionism. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 17(1), 208–238. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26611
[29] Johnson, J. E., & Haug, P. (2021). Modifications to global supply chain management strategies resulting from recent trade disruptions: An exploratory study. Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing, 14(4), 701–722. https://doi.org/10.1108/jgoss-12-2020-0074
[30] Kim, A. J. (2020). The untouchable executive authority: Trump and the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium. University of Miami Business Law Review, 28(1), 176. http://repository.law.miami.edu/umblr/vol28/iss1/7/
[31] Kim, W., & Yoon, Y. J. (2020). Trump tariffs and firm relief: Winners and losers from the steel tariff exclusion request. Applied Economics Letters, 28(16), 1357–1362. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2020.1817301
[32] Konduru, S., & Asci, S. (2019). A study of the Chinese retaliatory tariffs on tree nuts industry of California. Theoretical Economics Letters, 09(08), 2747–2755. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2019.98172
[33] Lau, L. J. (2019). The China–US trade war and future economic relations. China and the World, 02(02), 1950012. https://doi.org/10.1142/s2591729319500123
[34] Lester, S., & Zhu, H. (2019). A proposal for “rebalancing” to deal with “national security” trade restrictions. Fordham International Law Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3368338
[35] Li, Z., & Fang, F. (2024). Risk expectation from trade protectionism and firm innovation strategies: Theory and evidence from China. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 9(2), 100480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2024.100480
[36] Liu, Z. (2025). The two-level games in China’s foreign trade policies. Taylor & Francis.
[37] Lovely, M. E., & Liang, Y. (2018). Trump tariffs primarily hit multinational supply chains, harm US technology competitiveness. Policy Briefs, PB18-12. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/pbrief/pb18-12.html
[38] Luo, W., Kang, S., Hu, S., Su, L., & Dai, R. (2023). Dual effects of the U.S.–China trade war and COVID-19 on U.S. imports: Transfer of China’s industrial chain? Papers 2309.02271.
[39] Mancheri, N. A., Sprecher, B., Bailey, G., Ge, J., & Tukker, A. (2018). Effect of Chinese policies on rare earth supply chain resilience. Resources Conservation and Recycling, 142, 101–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.11.017
[40] McKibbin, W., & Shuetrim, G. (2025). The US revenue implications of President Trump’s 2025 tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
[41] Milner, H. V., & Yoffie, D. B. (2017). Between free trade and protectionism: Strategic trade policy and a theory of corporate trade demands. In Routledge eBooks (pp. 181–214). https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315254166-9
[42] Muhammad, A. (2025). Trump tariffs 2.0: Assessing the impacts on US distilled spirits imports. Agribusiness. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.22034
[43] OECD. (2020). Agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation 2020. OECD Publishing.
[44] Olivares-Aguila, J., & ElMaraghy, W. (2020). System dynamics modelling for supply chain disruptions. International Journal of Production Research, 59(6), 1757–1775. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2020.1725171
[45] Olson, M., & Niemeyer, C. (2025). Trump’s tariffs: Background and consequences of Liberation Day. BoD – Books on Demand.
[46] Pahnke, A. (2025). From “climate-smart” to "climate-just agriculture”: International institutions and challenging false solutions to our ongoing climate crisis. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003481867
[47] Park, S.-C. (2020). Trade conflict between the U.S. and China: What are the impacts on the Chinese economy? International Organisations Research Journal, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2020-02-10
[48] Patel, E., & Ai. (2025). Economic wars. Publifye AS.
[49] Pedneault, J., Desjardins, V., Margni, M., Conciatori, D., Fafard, M., & Sorelli, L. (2021). Economic and environmental life cycle assessment of a short-span aluminium composite bridge deck in Canada. Journal of Cleaner Production, 310, 127405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127405
[50] Perifanis, T. (2019). Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices’ bubble periods. Energies, 12(14), 2649. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12142649
[51] Qasim, M., Khan, S. D., Sisson, V., Greer, P., Xia, L., Okyay, U., & Franco, N. (2024). Identifying rare earth elements using a tripod and drone-mounted hyperspectral camera: A case study of the Mountain Pass Birthday Stock and Sulphide Queen Mine Pit, California. Remote Sensing, 16(17), 3353. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16173353
[52] Rho, S., & Tomz, M. (2017). Why don’t trade preferences reflect economic self-interest? International Organization, 71(S1), S85–S108. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0020818316000394
[53] Sabala, E., & Devadoss, S. (2019). Impacts of Chinese tariff on world soybean markets. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 44(2). https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.287975
[54] Srivastava, U. K. (2024). A study of global trade war and its impact on Indian economy. International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.36948/ijfmr.2024.v06i02.14813
[55] Stark, L. (2025). The illusion of triumph: How Donald Trump shaped his legacy from family wealth and risky bets. David Merrick.
[56] Steinbock, D. (2018). U.S.-China trade war and its global impacts. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 4(4), 515–542. https://doi.org/10.1142/s2377740018500318
[57] StoryBuddiesPlay. (2025). The USA China trade war: Explore the geopolitical tensions and economic shifts sparked by the USA-China trade conflict.
[58] Taheripour, F., & Tyner, W. E. (2018). Impacts of possible Chinese 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans and other agricultural commodities. Choices, 33(2), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.273330
[59] Verma, R. (2025). India-US convergence and divergence under the Trump administration. Taylor & Francis.
[60] Vivoda, V. (2022). LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters. Energy Policy, 170, 113218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113218
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Published
2025-12-30
How to Cite
ANGWAOMAODOKO, Ejuchegahi A..
The Impact of Trump Administration Tariffs on Global Trade and Commodity Prices.
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 16, n. 4, p. 930 - 942, dec. 2025.
ISSN 2068-7710.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/9260>. Date accessed: 29 dec. 2025.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v16.4(36).10.
Section
Articles
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