Sino-European Relations During Donald Trump’s Second Term
Abstract
The United States' tariff threats - and their subsequent enforcement - have ramifications that extend well beyond bilateral trade relations. They disrupt the global trading system as a whole. During his second term, President Donald Trump planned to extend new tariffs to the world’s two other major trading blocs: China and the European Union. These two powers, already embroiled in mutual trade tensions, had imposed tariffs on selected goods from one another. In this context, a key question arises: to what extent has the U.S.-driven trade war influenced the course of Sino-European trade negotiations? Has it compelled both parties to reassess their strategies and move toward closer coordination? By examining the decisions taken by China and the EU, especially in comparison to the positions adopted during Trump’s first term, we observe a notable hardening of positions on several fronts.
Both actors, though long-time advocates of free trade, have shifted away from this principle under increasing geopolitical and economic pressure. While U.S. influence partly explains the EU’s firmer stance toward China, the trend reflects a deeper and more enduring transformation in Sino-European trade relations.
References
[2] Barbet, Philippe. (2025). Trump and His Trade War: Between Economic Failures and Political Calculations. IRIS. 17 june. Available at: https://www.iris-france.org/en/trump-and-his-trade-war-between-economic-failures-and-political-calculations/
[3] Bonini, Emnauele (2025). Ukraine, von der Leyen to China: “Use your influence to bring Russia to negotiations." EUnews. 24 September. Available at: https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/09/24/ukraine-von-der-leyen-to-china-use-your-influence-to-bring-russia-to-negotiations/
[4] Bouissou, Julien (2020). Franck Riester: “Nous n’avons pas obtenu d’engagements suffisants de la Chine sur l’abolition du travail force”. Le Monde. 23 December. Available at: https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2020/12/23/franck-riester-nous-n-avons-pas-obtenu-d-engagements-suffisants-de-la-chine-sur-l-abolition-du-travail-force_6064321_3210.html
[5] Chenou, Jean-Marie, Ralf J. Leiteritz and Carolina Urrego-Sandoval (2025). Global Political Economy: Problems in a Transforming International Order. Sage.
[6] Choi, Bo-Young, and Thuy Lingh Nguyen (2023). Trade diversion effects of the US–China trade war on Vietnam. Pacific Economic Review, 28 (4): 570–588. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12435
[7] Dang, Alicia H., Kala Krishna, and Yingyan Zhao (2023). Winners and Loosers from the US-China Trade War. NBER. Working Paper 31922. Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w31922
[8] Depraiter, Lisa, and Stephane Goutte (2023). The role and challenges of rare earths in the energy transition. Resources Policy 86. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104137
[9] Fajgelbaum, Pablo, and Amit Khandelwal (2022). The Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War. Annual Review of Economics, 14: 205-228. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-110410
[10] Fajgelbaum, Pablo, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, Amit Khandelwal and Daria Taglioni (2024). The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations. American Economic Review. Insights, 6(2): 295–312. DOI:https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/aeri.20230094.
[11] Findeisen, Franceso (2023). The Club Approach: Towards Successful EU Critical Raw Materials Diplomacy. Hertie School Jacques Delors Center, Policy Brief. Available at: https://www.delorscentre.eu/en/publications/critical-raw-materials-club
[12] Findlay, Ronald, and Kevin H. O’Rourke (2007). Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium. Princeton University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv6zdc8p
[13] Gonzàles, Eduardo (2025). China responds to European tariffs on electric cars with rates of up to 62% on pork. The Diplomat in Spain. 5 September. Available at: https://thediplomatinspain.com/en/2025/09/05/china-responde-a-los-aranceles-europeos-al-coche-electrico-con-tasas-de-hasta-el-62-a-la-carne-de-cerdo/
[14] Guo, Meixin, Lin Lu, Liugang Shengn and Miaojie Yu (2018). The Day After Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump's Trade War. Asian Economic Papers, 17(1): 101–120. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00592
[15] Itakura, Ken (2020). Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War. Asian Economic Policy Review, 15: 77-93. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12286
[16] Josephs, Jonathan (2025). How Europe is vying for rare earth independence from China. BBC. 7 August. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2zp6m4gy7o
[17] Karacsony, Eszter, Ahmed Dawoud, Ahmed Wael Ahmed Habashy and Mahdi Ghuloom (2025). EU-UAE Trade Negotiations: A Potential Path to Gulf-Wide European Trade. ORF Middle East. 25 July. Available at: https://orfme.org/expert-speak/eu-uae-trade-negotiations-a-potential-path-to-gulf-wide-european-trade/
[18] Kim, Tae-Yoon, Shobhan Dhir, Marita Dasgupta, and Alessio Scanziani (2025). With new export controls on critical minerals, supply concentration risks become reality. IEA. Commentary. Available at: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/with-new-export-controls-on-critical-minerals-supply-concentration-risks-become-reality
[19] Kwan, Chi Hung (2020). The China–US Trade War: Deep-Rooted Causes, Shifting Focus and Uncertain Prospects. Asian Economic Policy Review, 15: 55-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12284
[20] Lapie, Thomas (2023). Que faut-il retenir du European Critical Materials Act? IRIS. Octobre. Available at: https://www.iris-france.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/21_ProgClimEnerSec.pdf
[21] Li, Yue-Zhen (2025). The Rare Earth Leverage? China's Export Control Law and Xi Jinping's Thought on Law-Based Governance. Asian Law Review no.312. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58112/alr.20-2.3
[22] Liu, Tao and Wing Thye Woo (2018). Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War. China Economic Journal, 11(3): 319–340. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2018.1516256
[23] Mancini, Donato, Samy Adghirni and Jorge Valero (2025). Macron tells EU to weight using strongest trade toolon China. Bloomberg. 23 October. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-23/macron-tells-eu-to-consider-using-strongest-trade-tool-on-china
[24] McCartney, Micah (2025). China Responds to Zelensky’s Criticism Over Russia Support. Newsweek. 24 October. Available at: https://www.newsweek.com/china-responds-zelensky-criticism-russia-support-10932439
[25] McCrohan (1986). Protectionism in the United States steel and aircraft industries. Industrial Marketing Management 12(4): 225-231. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-8501(83)80002-9
[26] Nelson, Douglas (1996). The Political Economy of U.S. Automobile Protection, in: The Political Economy of American Trade Policy, 133-196.
[27] Papadimitriou, Dimitri B., Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza (2025). Trump’s Tariffs: Ending Globalization. Levy Economics Institute. Policy note no 2025 (1). Available at: https://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/trumps-tariffs-ending-globalization/
[28] Quarles van Ufford, Herman (2025). When the chips are down: Nexperia, Europe and the US-China trade and tech war. European Council on Foreign Relations. 21 October. Available at: https://ecfr.eu/article/when-the-chips-are-down-nexperia-europe-and-the-us-china-trade-and-tech-war/
[29] Reda, Cherif, and Fuad Hasanov (2024). The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy. IMF Working Papers 2024, 086. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400270802.001
[30] SCHAUPP, Lukas (2024). Decoding the Intersection of Trade and Security in the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument in the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument. European Foreign Affairs Review, 29(2): 133–158. Available at: https://cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/core/bitstreams/69116779-9b11-5c41-a760-d11ef20a4762/content
[31] Tao, Mingyang and Chen Qingrui (2025). FM refutes EU’s illicit unilateral sanctions against Chinese companies. Global Times. 23 October. Available at: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202510/1346316.shtml
[32] Xu, Xiaofei (2025). Nexperia debacle shows Europe trapped between US and China, analysts say. SCMP. 27 October. Available at: https://ecfr.eu/article/when-the-chips-are-down-nexperia-europe-and-the-us-china-trade-and-tech-war/
[33] European Commission (2019). EU-China, a Strategic Outlook. Available at: https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2019-03/communication-eu-china-a-strategic-outlook.pdf.
[34] European Commission (2025). Key elements of the EU-Indonesia Trade Agreement and Investment Protection Agreement. 23 July. Available at: https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/indonesia/eu-indonesia-agreements/key-elements-eu-indonesia-trade-agreement-and-investment-protection-agreement_en
[35] European Commission (2025a). Read-out of the phone call between President von der Leyen and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. 8 April. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/read_25_1004.
[36] European Commission (2025b). Speech by President von der Leyen at the 2025 Berlin Global Dialogue. 25 October. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_25_2515.
[37] European Council (2022). EU-China summit: Restoring peace and stability in Ukraine is a shared responsibility. Press release. 1 April. Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/04/01/eu-china-summit-restoring-peace-and-stability-in-ukraine-is-a-shared-responsibility/.
[38] European Parliament (2023). Anti-coercion instrument: the EU’s new weapon to protect trade. 2 October. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20230915STO05214/anti-coercion-instrument-the-eu-s-new-weapon-to-protect-trade.
[39] European Parliament (2025). EU targets low-value imports via e-commerce platforms. 9 July. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20250708STO29516/eu-targets-low-value-imports-via-e-commerce-platforms.
[40] IISS (2024). The EU’s approach to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. 30, comment 27 (October). Available at: https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/publications/strategic-comments-delta/2024/sc-30-27-the-eus-approach-to-tariffs-on-chinese-electric-vehicles_corrected.pdf
[41] Le Monde. 23 July. (2025) China rebukes EU over Russia sanctions targeting its banks. Available at: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/european-union/article/2025/07/23/china-rebukes-eu-over-russia-sanctions-targeting-its-banks_6743629_156.html
[42] Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (2025). Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 61 of 2025: Decision to Impose Export Controls on Relevant Rare Earth Items from Overseas. 9 September. Available at: https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/art/2025/art_7fc9bff0fb4546ecb02f66ee77d0e5f6.html
[43] Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic (2023). Defence Strategy of the Czech Republic 2023. Available at: https://www.mo.gov.cz/assets/en/ministry-of-defence/newsroom/news/defence-strategy-of-the-czech-republic_2023_final.pdf
[44] Official Journal of the European Union (2024). Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 April 2024 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials and amending Regulations (EU). Document 32024R1252. 11 April. Available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32024R1252&qid=1720020986785
Non-Exclusive License under Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC BY 4.0):
This ‘Article’ is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which lets others distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon this article, even commercially, as long as they credit this article for the original creation. ASERS Publishing will be acknowledged as the first publisher of the Article and a link to the appropriate bibliographic citation (authors, article title, volume issue, page numbers, DOI, and the link to the Published Article on ASERS Publishing’ Platform) must be maintained.