Tax Reform and Investment Decision Effects in an Emerging Economy: Insights from Ghana
Abstract
This study focuses on both domestic and foreign investment as indicators of economic growth in an emerging market context, examining the effects of tax reforms on investment decisions in Ghana from 1985 to 2020. The research employs a time-series analysis to integrate control variables like inflation, gross capital formation, and base rate, revealing their significant influence on investment activity in tandem with tax policy changes. Unlike previous research that mostly uses gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for investment, this study includes a wider range of investment types, giving a more complete picture of how the economy works. We did unit root and co-integration tests, which showed that the variables were first-order co-integrated. We performed the model estimate using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality tests. Results reveal that tax reforms have a measurable impact on investment patterns, underscoring the importance of adaptive tax policies in promoting sustainable economic development. The findings contribute to the broader literature on investment and fiscal policy in emerging economies, offering insights for policy-makers on optimizing tax strategies to encourage investment and drive economic growth.
References
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[14] Cobbinah, B. B., Wen, Y., and Sarpong, F. A. (2024). Navigating Ghana’s Economic Waters: Exploring the Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Stock Market Performance. Heliyon, 10(20). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e23999
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[18] Enami, A., Lustig, N., and Taqdiri, A. (2019). Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and Poverty in Iran: Assessing the Impact and Effectiveness of Taxes and Transfers. Middle East Development Journal, 11(1): 49–74. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1583510
[19] Engel, E. M., Galetovic, A. and Raddatz, C. E. (1999). Taxes and Income Distribution in Chile: Some Unpleasant Redistributive Arithmetic. Journal of Development Economics, 59(1): 155–192. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(99)00008-1.
[20] Folawewo, Abayomi O., and Osinubi, T. S. (2006)Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Instability in Nigeria: A Rational Expectation Approach. Journal of Social Sciences, 12(2): 93–100. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/09718923.2006.11978375
[21] Frimpong, M. K., Asare, B.E. and Aggrey-Darkoh, E. (2023). Taxation Policymaking in Ghana. In Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance, 12643–12655. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31816-5_3912
[22] Marques, C., Duarte Neves, P. and Sarmento, L. (2003). Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators. Economic Modelling, 20(4): 765–775. DOI: 10.1016/S0264-9993(02)00008-1
[23] Melo-Becerra, L. A., Mahecha, J. Á. and Ramos-Forero, J. E. (2021). Corporate Taxation and Investment: Evidence from a Context of Frequent Tax Reforms. Hacienda Pública Española, 237: 3–31. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/idb/brikps/1716.html
[24] Mensah, A. (2022). Corporate Tax Reforms and Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Economies: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of African Economic Policy, 18(2): 45–60. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/jaep.2022.03.005
[25] Mohamud, Ali A., and Nimo N. Isak. (2019). Reforming the Tax System of the Federal Government of Somalia. Journal of Tax Administration, 5(2): 125–137. Available at: https://jota.website/jota/article/view/67
[26] Mungaya, M., Mbwambo, A. H. and Tripathi, S. K. (2012). Study of Tax System Impact on the Growth of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs): With Reference to Shinyanga Municipality, Tanzania. International Journal of Management & Business Studies, 2(3): 99–105. Available at: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:18682171
[27] Muslim, M. (2024). Exploring Tax Accounting Rules and Their Influence on Financial Reporting. Advances in Taxation Research, 2(1): 1–11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.60079/atr.v2i1.245
[28] Naama, K. (2023). A Reform Approach to the Transformation of the Economy of the Republic of Ghana. Социално-икономически анализи, 1: 32–37. Available at: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=1147488
[29] Nembe, J. K., and Courage Idemudia. (2024). Designing Effective Policies to Address the Challenges of Global Digital Tax Reforms. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 22(3): 1171–1183. DOI:10.30574/wjarr.2024.22.3.1837
[30] Newbery, D.M.G. and Stem, N.H eds. (1987). The Theory of Taxation for Developing Countries. Washington, D.C., New York: Oxford University Press and World Bank.
[31] Nwokoye, G. A., and Rolle, R.A. (2015). Tax Reforms and Investment in Nigeria: An Empirical Examination. International Journal of Development and Management Review 10(1): 39–51. Available at: https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ijdmr/article/view/120933
[32] Nyamadi, G. (2014). Tax Policy and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana. PhD diss., University of Ghana. Available at: https://ugspace.ug.edu.gh/server/api/core/bitstreams/621e6259-4131-4049-adec-2ccbd2d6ef38/content
[33] Okoth, E. (2023). Effects of Tax Incentives and Subsidies on Economic Growth in Developing Economies. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) 7. DOI:10.47772/IJRISS.2023.70744
[34] Osei, D., and Addo, P. (2021). Inflation, Tax Reforms, and Investment Decisions: A Granger Causality Approach. Journal of Development Economics in Africa, 17(3): 112–130. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/jdea.2021.06.008
[35] Patil, Santosh, and Vivek Bagodi. (2021). A Study of Factors Affecting Investment Decisions in India: The KANO Way." Asia Pacific Management Review, 26(4): 197–214. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apmrv.2021.02.004
[36] Qi, Zhu, et al. (2023). The Effect of Tax Policy Changes on Business Investment and Economic Growth. International Journal of Accounting, 8(50): 397–413. DOI: 10.55573/IJAFB.085028
[37] Reinhart, C. M., and Rogoff, K.S. (2004). The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: Reinterpretation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1): 1–48. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1162/003355304772839515
[38] Rumasukun, M.R., and Noch, M. Y. (2023). The Impact of Tax Policy on Investment Decisions: A Case Study in the Manufacturing Industry. Atestasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 6(1): 540-553. DOI:https://doi.org/10.57178/atestasi.v6i1.954
[39] Seidu, B. A., Queku, Y. N. and Carsamer E. (2023). Financial Constraints and Tax Planning Activity: Empirical Evidence from Ghanaian Banking Sector. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(4): 1063–1087. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-09-2022-0210
[40] Stein, Herbert, ed. (1988). Tax Policy in the Twenty-First Century. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. Available at: https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1748&context=wlulr
[41] Tanzi, V. (2012), Fiscal Policy and Investment: Evidence from Developing Economies. World Development 40(6): 1111–1125. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.12.001
[42] Tavares-Lehmann, A. T., Coelho, Â. and Lehmann, F. (2012). Taxes and Incentives: Their Role in Fostering Sustainable Development. World Development 40(12): 2482–2494. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.05.008
[43] Vergara, R. (2010). Taxation and Private Investment: Evidence for Chile. Applied Economics, 42(6): 717–725. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701720747
[44] Villela, L., and Barreix, A. (2002). Tax Reform and Inequality in Latin America: The Role of Personal Income Tax. Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper no. 112: 1–23. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265527229./https://webimages.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Taxation-and-Investment-Promotion.pdf
[45] Zed, P., Stotsky, J. and Ley, E. (2002). Inequality and Tax Systems in Developing Countries. International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/02/123: 1–32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854654.001
[46] World Bank. Ghana: Challenges and Opportunities for Inclusive Development. World Bank Report, 2018.
[47] World Bank. Ghana: Development Progress and Pathways for the Future. World Bank Report, 2021.
[2] Aghion, P., Dechezleprêtre, A., Hémous, D., and Martin, R. (2005). The Effect of Corporate Taxation on Investment and Productivity: The Case of the European Union. Journal of Economics, 63(1): 18–35. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.2.3.31
[3] Alves, J. (2019). The Impact of Tax Structure on Investment: An Empirical Assessment for OECD Countries. Public Sector Economics 43(3): 291–309. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.43.3.4
[4] Awuonda, H.O., and Ombok, B. (2024). The Impact of Inflation-Based Value Added Tax Reforms on Price Stability in Sugar Firms. Reviewed Journal International of Financial Management, 5(1): 14–26. Available at: https://www.reviewedjournals.com/index.php/Finance/article/view/276
[5] Azémar, C., and Dharmapala, D. (2019). Tax-Sharing Agreements, Territorial Tax Reforms, and Foreign Direct Investment. Journal of Public Economics, 169: 89–108. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.10.013
[6] Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5): S103–S125. Available at: https://repec:ucp:jpolec:v:98:y:1990:i:5:p:s103-26
[7] Barton, S. E. (2016). Berkeley Mayor J. Stitt Wilson: Christian Socialist, Georgist, Feminist. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 75(1): 193–216. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajes.12132
[8] Boateng, S., and Owusu, E. (2024). Corporate Income Tax Reduction and Its Impact on Aggregate Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Global Finance Journal, 29(4): 289–305. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/gfj.2024.03.007
[9] Braunerhjelm, P., and Eklund, J. E. (2014). Taxes, Tax Administrative Burdens, and New Firm Formation. Kyklos, 67(1): 1–24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12040
[10] Bucheli, M., Lustig, N., Rossi, M., and Amábile, F. (2014). Social Spending, Taxes, and Income Redistribution in Uruguay. Public Finance Review, 42(3): 413–433. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/1091142113493
[11] Büyükakın, F. İ. G. E. N., Cengiz, V., and Türk, A. (2009). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Kanalının VAR Analizi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(1): 171–191.
[12] Callihan, D. S. (1994). Corporate Effective Tax Rates: A Synthesis of the Literature. Journal of Accounting Literature, 12: 1–43. Available at: https://www.econbiz.de/Record/corporate-effective-tax-rates-a-synthesis-of-the-literature-callihan-debra/10007013333
[13] Churchill, R. Q., Kwaning, C. O., and Ababio, O. (2014). The Determinant of Bank Interest Rates Spreads in Ghana. International Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2(4): 49–57. DOI:https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijebo.20140204.11
[14] Cobbinah, B. B., Wen, Y., and Sarpong, F. A. (2024). Navigating Ghana’s Economic Waters: Exploring the Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Stock Market Performance. Heliyon, 10(20). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e23999
[15] Cummins, J. G., Hassett, K. A., and Hubbard, R. G. (2016). Tax Reforms and Investment: A Cross-Country Comparison. Journal of Public Economics 62(1–2): 237–273. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(95)01575-1
[16] Da Rin, M., Sembenelli, A., and Di Giacomo, M. (2010). Corporate Taxation and the Size of New Firms: Evidence from Europe. Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(2–3): 606–616. DOI:https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.43.3.4
[17] Davids, T. (2015). A Principled Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Selected Aspects of the OECD's BEPS Proposals to Prevent 'Tax Treaty Abuse.' Master’s thesis, University of Cape Town. DOI:https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.d12345
[18] Enami, A., Lustig, N., and Taqdiri, A. (2019). Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and Poverty in Iran: Assessing the Impact and Effectiveness of Taxes and Transfers. Middle East Development Journal, 11(1): 49–74. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/17938120.2019.1583510
[19] Engel, E. M., Galetovic, A. and Raddatz, C. E. (1999). Taxes and Income Distribution in Chile: Some Unpleasant Redistributive Arithmetic. Journal of Development Economics, 59(1): 155–192. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(99)00008-1.
[20] Folawewo, Abayomi O., and Osinubi, T. S. (2006)Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Instability in Nigeria: A Rational Expectation Approach. Journal of Social Sciences, 12(2): 93–100. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/09718923.2006.11978375
[21] Frimpong, M. K., Asare, B.E. and Aggrey-Darkoh, E. (2023). Taxation Policymaking in Ghana. In Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance, 12643–12655. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31816-5_3912
[22] Marques, C., Duarte Neves, P. and Sarmento, L. (2003). Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators. Economic Modelling, 20(4): 765–775. DOI: 10.1016/S0264-9993(02)00008-1
[23] Melo-Becerra, L. A., Mahecha, J. Á. and Ramos-Forero, J. E. (2021). Corporate Taxation and Investment: Evidence from a Context of Frequent Tax Reforms. Hacienda Pública Española, 237: 3–31. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/idb/brikps/1716.html
[24] Mensah, A. (2022). Corporate Tax Reforms and Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Economies: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of African Economic Policy, 18(2): 45–60. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/jaep.2022.03.005
[25] Mohamud, Ali A., and Nimo N. Isak. (2019). Reforming the Tax System of the Federal Government of Somalia. Journal of Tax Administration, 5(2): 125–137. Available at: https://jota.website/jota/article/view/67
[26] Mungaya, M., Mbwambo, A. H. and Tripathi, S. K. (2012). Study of Tax System Impact on the Growth of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs): With Reference to Shinyanga Municipality, Tanzania. International Journal of Management & Business Studies, 2(3): 99–105. Available at: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:18682171
[27] Muslim, M. (2024). Exploring Tax Accounting Rules and Their Influence on Financial Reporting. Advances in Taxation Research, 2(1): 1–11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.60079/atr.v2i1.245
[28] Naama, K. (2023). A Reform Approach to the Transformation of the Economy of the Republic of Ghana. Социално-икономически анализи, 1: 32–37. Available at: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=1147488
[29] Nembe, J. K., and Courage Idemudia. (2024). Designing Effective Policies to Address the Challenges of Global Digital Tax Reforms. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 22(3): 1171–1183. DOI:10.30574/wjarr.2024.22.3.1837
[30] Newbery, D.M.G. and Stem, N.H eds. (1987). The Theory of Taxation for Developing Countries. Washington, D.C., New York: Oxford University Press and World Bank.
[31] Nwokoye, G. A., and Rolle, R.A. (2015). Tax Reforms and Investment in Nigeria: An Empirical Examination. International Journal of Development and Management Review 10(1): 39–51. Available at: https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ijdmr/article/view/120933
[32] Nyamadi, G. (2014). Tax Policy and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana. PhD diss., University of Ghana. Available at: https://ugspace.ug.edu.gh/server/api/core/bitstreams/621e6259-4131-4049-adec-2ccbd2d6ef38/content
[33] Okoth, E. (2023). Effects of Tax Incentives and Subsidies on Economic Growth in Developing Economies. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) 7. DOI:10.47772/IJRISS.2023.70744
[34] Osei, D., and Addo, P. (2021). Inflation, Tax Reforms, and Investment Decisions: A Granger Causality Approach. Journal of Development Economics in Africa, 17(3): 112–130. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/jdea.2021.06.008
[35] Patil, Santosh, and Vivek Bagodi. (2021). A Study of Factors Affecting Investment Decisions in India: The KANO Way." Asia Pacific Management Review, 26(4): 197–214. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apmrv.2021.02.004
[36] Qi, Zhu, et al. (2023). The Effect of Tax Policy Changes on Business Investment and Economic Growth. International Journal of Accounting, 8(50): 397–413. DOI: 10.55573/IJAFB.085028
[37] Reinhart, C. M., and Rogoff, K.S. (2004). The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: Reinterpretation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1): 1–48. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1162/003355304772839515
[38] Rumasukun, M.R., and Noch, M. Y. (2023). The Impact of Tax Policy on Investment Decisions: A Case Study in the Manufacturing Industry. Atestasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 6(1): 540-553. DOI:https://doi.org/10.57178/atestasi.v6i1.954
[39] Seidu, B. A., Queku, Y. N. and Carsamer E. (2023). Financial Constraints and Tax Planning Activity: Empirical Evidence from Ghanaian Banking Sector. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(4): 1063–1087. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-09-2022-0210
[40] Stein, Herbert, ed. (1988). Tax Policy in the Twenty-First Century. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. Available at: https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1748&context=wlulr
[41] Tanzi, V. (2012), Fiscal Policy and Investment: Evidence from Developing Economies. World Development 40(6): 1111–1125. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.12.001
[42] Tavares-Lehmann, A. T., Coelho, Â. and Lehmann, F. (2012). Taxes and Incentives: Their Role in Fostering Sustainable Development. World Development 40(12): 2482–2494. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.05.008
[43] Vergara, R. (2010). Taxation and Private Investment: Evidence for Chile. Applied Economics, 42(6): 717–725. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701720747
[44] Villela, L., and Barreix, A. (2002). Tax Reform and Inequality in Latin America: The Role of Personal Income Tax. Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper no. 112: 1–23. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265527229./https://webimages.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Taxation-and-Investment-Promotion.pdf
[45] Zed, P., Stotsky, J. and Ley, E. (2002). Inequality and Tax Systems in Developing Countries. International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/02/123: 1–32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854654.001
[46] World Bank. Ghana: Challenges and Opportunities for Inclusive Development. World Bank Report, 2018.
[47] World Bank. Ghana: Development Progress and Pathways for the Future. World Bank Report, 2021.
Published
2025-06-30
How to Cite
YEBOAH, Michael et al.
Tax Reform and Investment Decision Effects in an Emerging Economy: Insights from Ghana.
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 16, n. 2, p. 331-347, june 2025.
ISSN 2068-7710.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/8926>. Date accessed: 30 july 2025.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v16.2(34).05.
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