Echoes of Conflict: Unveiling the Interconnected Tapestry of Russia-Ukraine Warfare, Oil Price Ballet, and the Asian Stock Symphony
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to look into the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the relationship between oil prices and the Asian stock market. While earlier studies have investigated the impact of oil prices on stock markets, there has been little research into the impact of crude oil prices on the Asian stock market in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. For this purpose, the data is collected from NSE and Bloomberg database the study's findings imply that the Russia-Ukraine war has had a major impact on the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market indices in numerous Asia-Pacific countries. The study suffers from a few limitations such as it only examines the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market indices but there are other macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and political instability which also affect the market.
References
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[2] Alam, M. K., Tabash, M. I., Billah, M., Kumar, S., and Anagreh, S. (2022). The Impacts of the Russia–Ukraine Invasion on Global Markets and Commodities: A Dynamic Connectedness among G7 and BRIC Markets. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(8), 352. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15080352
[3] Aziz, T. (2023). A Reassessment of Oil Market Volatility and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Selected SAARC Countries. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 26(3), 179-196.
[4] Bagchi, B. (2017b). Volatility spillovers between crude oil price and stock markets: evidence from BRIC countries. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 12(2): 352–365. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/ijoem-04-2015-0077
[5] Bagchi, B., and Paul, B. (2023). Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16020064
[6] Behera, Chinmaya (2023). The crude oil price–stock return connectedness and the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on stock returns in east Asian countries. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 26: No. 0, Article 6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.59091/1410-8046.2058
[7] Boungou, W., and Yatié, A. (2022). The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns. Economics Letters, 215, 110516. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110516
[8] Chowdhury, E.K., Khan, I.I. Reactions of Global Stock Markets to the Russia–Ukraine War: An Empirical Evidence. Asia-Pac Financ Markets, 31: 755–778 (2024). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-023-09429-4
[9] Ding, H., Kim, H., and Park, S. S. (2016). Crude oil and stock markets: Causal relationships in tails? Energy Economics, 59: 58–69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.07.013
[10] Escribano, A., Koczar, M. W., Jareño, F., and Esparcia, C. (2023). Shock transmission between crude oil prices and stock markets. Resources Policy, 83, 103754.
[11] Gaio, L. E., Stefanelli, N. O., Pimenta, T., Junior, Menegueti, M. G., and Gatsios, R. C. (2022). The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on market efficiency: Evidence for the developed stock market. Finance Research Letters, 50, 103302. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103302
[12] Hashmi, S. M., Chang, B. H., and Bhutto, N. A. (2021). Asymmetric effect of oil prices on stock market prices: New evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Resources Policy, 70, 101946. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101946
[13] Küçükçolak, R.A., Küçükçolak, N.İ. and Küçükoğlu, S. (2024). The impact of the Russia–Ukraine crisis on oil and gas shares: an event study approach. IJEPS, 18: 325–340. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42495-023-00129-5
[14] Le, H. M., and Trang, D. T. N. (2022). The Impacts of Crude Oil Market Structure on Stock Market Growth: Evidence from Asian Countries. Complexity, 2022, 1–12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/6522367
[15] Li, Y., Alshater, M. M., and Yoon, S. (2022). The Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Financial Markets. Social Science Research Network. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4108325
[16] Mahunta, R. (2011b). Relationship between International Crude Oil Price and Indian Stock Market (NSE). Interscience Management Review. DOI: https://doi.org/10.47893/imr.2011.1081
[17] Mbah, R. E., and Wasum, D. (2022). Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the USA, UK, Canada, and Europe. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(3): 144–153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14738/assrj.93.12005
[18] Mokni, K. (2020). A dynamic quantile regression model for the relationship between oil price and stock markets in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Energy, 213, 118639. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118639
[19] Noor, H., and Dutta, A. (2017). On the relationship between oil and equity markets: evidence from South Asia. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 13(3): 287–303. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/ijmf-04-2016-0064
[20] Ozili, P. K. (2024). Global economic consequences of Russian invasion of Ukraine. In Dealing With Regional Conflicts of Global Importance (pp. 195-223). IGI Globa
[21] Ready, R. C. (2018). Oil Prices and the Stock Market*. Review of Finance, 22(1): 155–176. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfw071
[22] Sahu, T. N., Bandopadhyay, K., and Mondal, D. (2014). An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between oil prices and Indian stock market. Managerial Finance, 40(2): 200–215. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1108/mf-06-2013-0131
[23] Saini, M., Yadav, M., Aggarwal, V., and Kumar, M. (2023). All weather friends: How did the Russia-Ukraine war impact Indian stock markets. International Journal of Diplomacy and Economy, 9(1), 93. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1504/ijdipe.2023.128806
[24] Sreenu, N. (2022). Impact of crude oil price uncertainty on indian stock market returns: Evidence from oil price volatility index. Energy Strategy Reviews, 44, 101002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.101002
[25] Sukcharoen, K., Zohrabyan, T., Leatham, D. J., and Wu, X. (2014). Interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices: A copula approach. Energy Economics, 44: 331–339. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.012
[26] Verma, R. K., Bansal, R., Stakić, N., and Singh, D. (2022). The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Stock Market Performance: Event Study Analysis. Proceedings of the 9th International Scientific Conference - FINIZ 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15308/finiz-2022-15-20
[27] Vuković, D. B., Dekpo-Adza, S., Khmelnitskiy, V., and Özer, M. (2023). Spillovers across the Asian OPEC+ Financial Market. Mathematics, 11(18), 4005.
[28] Yousaf, I., and Hassan, A. (2019). Linkages between crude oil and emerging Asian stock markets: New evidence from the Chinese stock market crash. Finance Research Letters, 31. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.08.023
[29] Yousaf, I., Patel, R., and Yaroyaya, L. (2022). The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 35, 100723. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100723
[30] Zhang, Q., Hu, Y., Jiao, J., and Wang, S. (2024). The impact of Russia–Ukraine war on crude oil prices: An EMC framework. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1): 1-12.
[31] Zou, H., Li, R., and Li, S. (2014). Modelling dynamic dependence between crude oil prices and Asia-Pacific stock market returns. International Review of Economics & Finance, 29: 208–223. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2013.05.015
Published
2024-09-30
How to Cite
SRIVASTAVA, Anubha et al.
Echoes of Conflict: Unveiling the Interconnected Tapestry of Russia-Ukraine Warfare, Oil Price Ballet, and the Asian Stock Symphony.
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 15, n. 3, p. 764 - 777, sep. 2024.
ISSN 2068-7710.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/8602>. Date accessed: 30 dec. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v15.3(31).20.
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