Nexus between Fiscal Discipline and the Budget Process in Africa: Evidence from Nigeria
Abstract
This paper examined the nexus between fiscal discipline and the budget process in Nigeria over the period from 1990 to 2020. Findings showed that the level of fiscal discipline in Nigeria as measured by two proxies of fiscal deficit gap and public debt gap is more enhanced under zero-based budgeting than under current incremental budgeting system. The study also established that civilian administrations are more prone to fiscal indiscipline relative to military dispensations. The paper also revealed the significant role of net foreign aid receipts in significantly narrowing fiscal deficit and public debt gaps in the short-run and long-run, respectively, as well as noted the significant widening impact of an increasing government size on the public debt gap in the long run. The study recommends, among others, the urgent need for the Nigerian government to restore fiscal discipline in public affairs through a reversion to zero-based budgeting system.
References
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[37] Machinjike, N., and Bonga, W. G. (2021). Fiscal Discipline and Budget Processes: Evidence from Zimbabwe. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 05(02): 607–616. DOI:https://doi.org/10.47772/ijriss.2021.5231
[38] Mawejje, J., and Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). The determinants of fiscal deficits: a survey of literature. International Review of Economics, 67(3): 403–417. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12232-020-00348-8
[39] Moore, P. (1980). Types of Budgeting and Budgeting Problems in American Cities. International Journal of Public Administration, 2(4): 501–514. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01900698008524392
[40] Nelson, C.R. and Plosser, C.I. (1982). Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10: 139-162.
[41] Neyapti, B. (2013). Fiscal decentralization, fiscal rules and fiscal discipline. Economics Letters, Elsevier, 121(3): 528-532.
[42] Machinjike, N. and Wellington, G.B. (2021). Fiscal Discipline and Budget Process: Evidence from Zimbabwe. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Sciences (IJRISS), V(II): 607-616.
[43] Nwaorgu, I., and Alozie, C. (2017). Budget Evaluation and Government Performance: A Case of the Nigerian Economy. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 20(1): 1–17. DOI:https://doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2017/34646
[44] Olaoye, F. O. (2014). An Exploratory Evaluation of Legislative Lawlessness in the Nigerian Budget Process. Singaporean Journal of Business, Economics and Management Studies, 3(2): 39–47. DOI:https://doi.org/10.12816/0007338
[45] Olehinwa, O., and James, N. (2012). Theory and Practice of Government Accounting in Nigeria. African Journal of Business Ethics, 6(1): 93. DOI: http://ajobe.journals.ac.za
[46] Olurankinse, F. (2012). Due Process and Budget Implementation: An Evaluation of Nigerian Public Sector Auditing. Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4(2): 144–154. DOI:https://doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v4i2.1689
[47] Oyeleke, O. J., and Ajilore, O. T. (2014). Analysis of Fiscal Deficit Sustainability Economy: An Error Correction Approach. Review of Conceptual and Empirical Literature, 4(2): 199–210.
[48] Periola, O. (2019). Determinants of Fiscal Discipline in Nigeria 1980-2015 (Vol. 11, Issue 1). http://scioteca.caf.com/
[49] Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2001). Political institutions and policy outcomes: What are the stylised facts? CEPR Discussion Papers 2872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[50] Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3): 289-326.
[51] Puonti, P. (2010). Interplay of aid and fiscal policy: Does budget support induce greater fiscal discipline. Aalto University, school of business, department of economics thesis. Thesis number: 12399.
[52] Ray, R. (2020). Social Welfare Administration.
[53] Rubin, I. (2007). The great unraveling: Federal budgeting, 1998-2006. Public Administration Review, 67(4): 605-794.
[54] Schick, A. (2003). The Role of Fiscal Rules in Budgeting. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 3(3): 7–34. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-v3-art14-en
[55] Ardagna, S., Caselli, F. and Lane, T. (2004). Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimate for OECD Countries. International Monetary Fund Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, No. 411, November, 2004.
[56] Sunday, I.O. (2016). Discuss on Fiscal Discipline and Corporate Governance in the Public Sector in Nigeria. Available at: https://doi.10.22495/cocv13i3c3p14
[57] Tapsoba, S.J., Sembene, D., Gammadigbe, V., and Issifou, I. (2019). Fiscal Convergence in Africa: What Role for Regional Economic Communities? Journal of Economic Integration, 34(2): 214-235.
[58] Ter-Minassian, T. (2007). Fiscal Rules for Subnational Governments. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 6(3): 1–11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-v6-art17-en
[59] Theophilus, A. A., and Perpetua, E. C. (2016). Budget Padding: The Nigerian Perspective. International Journal of Advanced Academic Research, 2(12): 41–56.
[60] Treisman, D. (2008). The architecture of government: Rethinking political decentralization. Cambridge studies in comparative politics. Cambridge University Press.
[61] Weingast, B. R., Shepsle, K. A. and Johnsen C. (1981). The political economy of benefits and costs: A neoclassical approach to distributive politics. Journal of Political Economy, 89(41): 642–664.
[62] Wyplosz, C. and Kostrup, S. (2010). A common pool theory of supranational deficit ceilings. European Economic Review, 54 (2): 269–278.
[2] Adekunle, W., Adeniyi, O. and Orekoya, S. (2021). Non-linear Relation between External Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Does the Investment Channel Matter? Iranian Economic Review, 25(1): 45-56.
[3] AfDB. (2008). Budget Practices and Procedures in Africa. pg 44-46.
[4] Alles, L., Jayathilaka, R., Kumari, N., Malalathunga, T., Obeyesekera, H., and Sharmila, S. (2021). An investigation of the usage of capital budgeting techniques by small and medium enterprises. Quality and Quantity, 55(3): 993–1006.
[5] Beredugo, S.B., Azubike, J.U.B. and Okon, E.E. (2019). Comparative Analysis of Zero-Based Budgeting and Incremental Budgeting Techniques of Government Performance in Nigeria. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 3(6), 238-243.
[6] Bevan, D. (2010). Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis for Low-Income Countries. Constraints, March.
[7] Bevan, D. (2010). Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis for Low-Income Countries.
[8] Branch, S. G. and Adderley, S. S. (2009). Fiscal discipline in the achievement of fiscal and debt sustainability in the Bahamas. Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, 4(2): 456-476.
[9] Buchanan, J. M. (1967). Public finance in democratic process: Fiscal institutions and individual choice. UNC Press.
[10] Buchanan, J. M. and Gordon, T. (1962). The calculus of consent: Logical foundations of constitutional democracy. URT Press.
[11] Dafflon, B. (2012). Voluntary amalgamation of Local Governments: The Swiss debate in the European context. International Center for Public Policy. Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper 1204.
[12] Deloitte (2015). Zero-Based Budgeting: Zero or Hero? Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.
[13] Duncan, B. (1948). On the rationale of group decision-making. Journal of Political Economy, 56: 23–34.
[14] Egwaikhide, F., Chete, L., and Falokun, G. (1994). Exchange Rate Depreciation, Budget Deficit and Inflation - The Nigerian Experience. Papers, November.
[15] Ejiogu, A., Okechukwu, O., and Ejiogu, C. (2020). Nigerian Budgetary Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Shrinking Fiscal Space: Financial Sustainability, Employment, Social Inequality and Business Implications. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management, 1–18. DOI:https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1108/JPBAFM-07-2020-0101
[16] Fagbemi, F. (2020). Assessing the Role of Governance in West African Fiscal Performance. American Economist, 65(1): 97–122. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0569434519857593
[17] Folscher, A., and Emile G. (2012). Fiscal Transparency and Participation in Africa. October.
[18] Gollwitzer, S. (2011). Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Africa. Journal of African Economies, 20(1): 111–152.
[19] Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2: 111-120
[20] Gujarati, D.N. and Porter, D.C. (2009). Basic Econometrics. Published by McGraw-Hill Irwin, New York, USA. ISBN: 978-007-127625-2
[21] Gyimah-Brempong, K. (1998). The Political Economy of Budgeting in Africa.
[22] Hallerberg, M., Strauch, R. R. and Hagen, J. (2009). Fiscal governance in Europe. Cambridge University Press.
[23] Hanusch, M., & Vaaler, P. M. (2013). Credit rating agencies and elections in emerging democracies: Guardians of fiscal discipline? Economics Letters, 119(3): 251-254. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.03.004
[24] Hemming, R., Kell, M. and Mahfouz, S. (2002). The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity,” IMF Working Paper No. 02/208 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
[25] Hou, Y. and Willoughby, K. (2010). Fiscal discipline in sub-national governments: A capacity measure of financial management in American governments. (unpublished report).
[26] IMF: International Monetary Fund (2021a). International Financial Statistics.
[27] IMF: International Monetary Fund (2021b). World Economic Outlook April 2021.
[28] Jarju, I., Nyarko, E., Adams, K., Haffner, O., and Odeniran, O. S. (2016). The Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth in the West African Monetary Zone: A Panel Data Analysis. West African Monetary Institute (WAMI) Occasional Paper, 12, Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wam/wpaper/12.html
[29] Joy, J., & Panda, P. K. (2021). An empirical analysis of sustainability of public debt among BRICS nations. Journal of Public Affairs, 21(2): e2170. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2170
[30] von Hagen, J., Harden, I. and Tanzi, V. (1996). Budget Processes and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline. Available at: https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396, International Monetary Fund.
[31] Kenneth, A. (1963). Uncertainty and welfare economics. The American Economic Review, 53(5): 941-973
[32] Khan, A. and Hildreth, W.B. (2002). Budget Theory in the Public. Quorum Books, Greenwood Publishing Group, 297. Available at: http://www.untagsmd.ac.id/
[33] Kingsley, O. K., and Ehigiamusoe, K. (2014). Capital Budget Implementation in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2012 Capital Budget. Econstor.
[34] Kontopoulos, Y., and R. Perotti (1999). Fiscal institutions and fiscal performance, in government fragmentation and fiscal policy outcomes: Evidence from OECD countries, ed. by J. Poterba, and J. von Hagen. University of Chicago Press.
[35] Kouassy, O., and Bohoun, B. (1993). the Determinants of Fiscal Deficit and Fiscal Adjustment in Cote D’Ivoire (Issue July).
[36] Long, L. C., Rosen, S., Meyer-rath, G., Nichols, B., Larson, B. A., and Ndlovu, N. (2021). Getting resources to those who need them: the evidence we need to budget for underserved populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of International Aids Society, 24: 67–72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jia2.25707
[37] Machinjike, N., and Bonga, W. G. (2021). Fiscal Discipline and Budget Processes: Evidence from Zimbabwe. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 05(02): 607–616. DOI:https://doi.org/10.47772/ijriss.2021.5231
[38] Mawejje, J., and Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). The determinants of fiscal deficits: a survey of literature. International Review of Economics, 67(3): 403–417. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12232-020-00348-8
[39] Moore, P. (1980). Types of Budgeting and Budgeting Problems in American Cities. International Journal of Public Administration, 2(4): 501–514. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01900698008524392
[40] Nelson, C.R. and Plosser, C.I. (1982). Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10: 139-162.
[41] Neyapti, B. (2013). Fiscal decentralization, fiscal rules and fiscal discipline. Economics Letters, Elsevier, 121(3): 528-532.
[42] Machinjike, N. and Wellington, G.B. (2021). Fiscal Discipline and Budget Process: Evidence from Zimbabwe. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Sciences (IJRISS), V(II): 607-616.
[43] Nwaorgu, I., and Alozie, C. (2017). Budget Evaluation and Government Performance: A Case of the Nigerian Economy. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 20(1): 1–17. DOI:https://doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2017/34646
[44] Olaoye, F. O. (2014). An Exploratory Evaluation of Legislative Lawlessness in the Nigerian Budget Process. Singaporean Journal of Business, Economics and Management Studies, 3(2): 39–47. DOI:https://doi.org/10.12816/0007338
[45] Olehinwa, O., and James, N. (2012). Theory and Practice of Government Accounting in Nigeria. African Journal of Business Ethics, 6(1): 93. DOI: http://ajobe.journals.ac.za
[46] Olurankinse, F. (2012). Due Process and Budget Implementation: An Evaluation of Nigerian Public Sector Auditing. Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4(2): 144–154. DOI:https://doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v4i2.1689
[47] Oyeleke, O. J., and Ajilore, O. T. (2014). Analysis of Fiscal Deficit Sustainability Economy: An Error Correction Approach. Review of Conceptual and Empirical Literature, 4(2): 199–210.
[48] Periola, O. (2019). Determinants of Fiscal Discipline in Nigeria 1980-2015 (Vol. 11, Issue 1). http://scioteca.caf.com/
[49] Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2001). Political institutions and policy outcomes: What are the stylised facts? CEPR Discussion Papers 2872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[50] Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3): 289-326.
[51] Puonti, P. (2010). Interplay of aid and fiscal policy: Does budget support induce greater fiscal discipline. Aalto University, school of business, department of economics thesis. Thesis number: 12399.
[52] Ray, R. (2020). Social Welfare Administration.
[53] Rubin, I. (2007). The great unraveling: Federal budgeting, 1998-2006. Public Administration Review, 67(4): 605-794.
[54] Schick, A. (2003). The Role of Fiscal Rules in Budgeting. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 3(3): 7–34. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-v3-art14-en
[55] Ardagna, S., Caselli, F. and Lane, T. (2004). Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimate for OECD Countries. International Monetary Fund Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, No. 411, November, 2004.
[56] Sunday, I.O. (2016). Discuss on Fiscal Discipline and Corporate Governance in the Public Sector in Nigeria. Available at: https://doi.10.22495/cocv13i3c3p14
[57] Tapsoba, S.J., Sembene, D., Gammadigbe, V., and Issifou, I. (2019). Fiscal Convergence in Africa: What Role for Regional Economic Communities? Journal of Economic Integration, 34(2): 214-235.
[58] Ter-Minassian, T. (2007). Fiscal Rules for Subnational Governments. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 6(3): 1–11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-v6-art17-en
[59] Theophilus, A. A., and Perpetua, E. C. (2016). Budget Padding: The Nigerian Perspective. International Journal of Advanced Academic Research, 2(12): 41–56.
[60] Treisman, D. (2008). The architecture of government: Rethinking political decentralization. Cambridge studies in comparative politics. Cambridge University Press.
[61] Weingast, B. R., Shepsle, K. A. and Johnsen C. (1981). The political economy of benefits and costs: A neoclassical approach to distributive politics. Journal of Political Economy, 89(41): 642–664.
[62] Wyplosz, C. and Kostrup, S. (2010). A common pool theory of supranational deficit ceilings. European Economic Review, 54 (2): 269–278.
Published
2021-12-31
How to Cite
ADEKUNLE, Wasiu et al.
Nexus between Fiscal Discipline and the Budget Process in Africa: Evidence from Nigeria.
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 12, n. 2, p. 131 - 146, dec. 2021.
ISSN 2068-7710.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/6726>. Date accessed: 08 may 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v12.2(24).06.
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