AGE AND GENDER - SPECIFIC EXCESS MORTALITY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN HUNGARY IN 2020

  • Csaba G. TÓTH Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Hungary

Abstract

The excess mortality indicator is able to capture how an epidemic affects a country’s mortality processes, taking into account direct and indirect, as well as possible effects in different directions. From the point of view of mortality processes in Hungary, the main feature of the first months of 2020 was that seasonal flu claimed fewer victims than in previous years, for this reason we examined last year’s excess mortality for the period between weeks 12 and 52 related to the coronavirus epidemic using a stochastic mathematical model. According to our calculations, excess mortality related to the coronavirus epidemic in Hungary was 13,700 people in 2020, which means a 14% excess in the period under review. Eighty-six percent of those who died were over the age of 65, 10 percent were between the ages of 50 and 64, and the proportion of those aged 49 or younger was 4 percent. In almost all age groups, the excess mortality rate was nearly twice as high for men as for women. According to our calculations, excess mortality was roughly one and a half times the number of victims claimed by the epidemic in 2020 according to official statistics, and we also found a significant difference between the time course of the two indicators.

References

[1] Beaney, T. et al. 2020. Excess mortality: the gold standard in measuring the impact of COVID-19 worldwide? Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 113(9): 329–334. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/0141076820956802
[2] Karlinsky, A. and Kobak, D. 2021. The World Mortality Dataset: Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. MedRxiv, 2021.01.27.21250604. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604
[3] Kontopantelis, E., Mamas, M. A., Deanfield, J., Asaria, M. and Doran, T. 2020. Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 213–223. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2020-214764
[4] Kovács, K. and Bálint, L. 2018. Mortality. In. Monostori J.; Őri P.;és Spéder Zs. (Eds.), Demographic Portrait of Hungary 2018 (pp. 151–178). Hungarian Demographic Research Institute. Available at: https://www.demografia.hu/en/publicationsonline/index.php/demographicportrait/article/view/956
[5] Kovács, K. and Pakot, L. 2020. Influenza-associated mortality in Hungary between 2009/2010 and 2016/2017.Orvosi Hetilap, 161(23): 962-970. Available at: https://europepmc.org/article/med/32453699
[6] Lee, R. C. and Miller, T. 2001. Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality. Demography, 38(4): 537–549. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3088317
[7] Tóth, C. G. 2021. Multi-population models to handle mortality crises in forecasting mortality: a case study from Hungary. Society and Economy, 43(2): 128-146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2021.00007
Published
2021-07-03
How to Cite
TÓTH, Csaba G.. AGE AND GENDER - SPECIFIC EXCESS MORTALITY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN HUNGARY IN 2020. Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 12, n. 1, p. 42-46, july 2021. ISSN 2068-7710. Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/6221>. Date accessed: 23 sep. 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.14505//tpref.v12.1(23).06.