PREDICTING DISAGGREGATED TOURIST ARRIVALS IN SIERRA LEONE USING ARIMA MODEL

  • Emerson Abraham JACKSON Bank of Sierra Leone, Sierra Leone
  • Edmund TAMUKE Bank of Sierra Leone, Sierra Leone

Abstract

This study has uniquely made use of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to address the core of the three objectives set out in view of the focus to add meaningful value to knowledge exploration. The outcome of the research has testified the achievements of this through successful nine months out-of-sample forecasts produced from the program codes, with indicating best model choices from the empirical estimation. In addition, the results also provide description of risks produced from the uncertainty Fan Chart, which clearly provide possible downside and upside risks to tourist visitations in the country. In the conclusion, it was suggested that downside risks to the low-level tourist arrival can be managed through collaboration between authorities concerned with the management of tourism in the country.

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Published
2020-01-24
How to Cite
JACKSON, Emerson Abraham; TAMUKE, Edmund. PREDICTING DISAGGREGATED TOURIST ARRIVALS IN SIERRA LEONE USING ARIMA MODEL. Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 10, n. 2, p. 132-142, jan. 2020. ISSN 2068-7710. Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/4259>. Date accessed: 25 jan. 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.14505//tpref.v10.2(20).06.