THE ROLES OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN THE ECONOMY OF NORTH CYPRUS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM MARKOV SWITCHING
Abstract
This study purpose is to examine the regime shift of public sector and private sector investments on economic growth in North Cyprus using with the Markov Switching Regression technique for the period from the first quarter of the year 1982 to the last quarter of the year of 2015. Both sector investments having effects on the economic growth at the concerned period and method provide the necessary evidence for the regime shifts. Two-regime (growth path/recession path) model has been estimated to analyse the Markov-switching model, Markov transition probabilities and constant expected durations.
References
[2] Bryson, J. M., and Roering, W. D. 1987. Applying private-sector strategic planning in the public sector. Journal of the American Planning Association, 53(1): 9-22.
[3] Fama, E. F., and French, K. R. 1988. Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of financial economics, 22(1): 3-25.
[4] Fong, W. M., and See, K. H. 2002. A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices. Energy Economics, 24(1): 71-95.
[5] Frühwirth‐Schnatter, S. 2004. Estimating marginal likelihoods for mixture and Markov switching models using bridge sampling techniques. The Econometrics Journal, 7(1): 143-167.
[6] Goldfeld, S. M. and Quandt, R. E. 1973. A Markov Model for Switching Regressions, Journal of Econometrics, 3–16.
[7] Gunsel, N. R., Tursoy, T., and Rjoub, H. 2010. An empirical analysis of currency crises, fundamentals and speculative pressure. African Journal of Business Management, 4(6): 972 - 978.
[8] Hamilton, James D. 1996. Specification Testing in Markov-switching Time-series Models, Journal of Econometrics, 70: 127–157.
[9] Holtz-Eakin, D. 1992. Public-sector capital and the productivity puzzle (No. w4122). National bureau of economic research.
[10] Kim, C. J., Piger, J., and Startz, R. 2008. Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching. Journal of Econometrics, 143(2): 263-273.
[11] Maddala, G. S. 1986. Disequilibrium, Self-Selection, and Switching Models, Handbook of Econometrics, Chapter 28 in Z. Griliches& M. D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 3, Amsterdam: North- Holland.
[12] Perron, P., and Vogelsang, T. J. 1992. Nonstationarity and level shifts with an application to purchasing power parity. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3): 301-320.
[13] Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., Sbia, R., and Afza, T. 2015. The effect of urbanization, affluence and trade openness on energy consumption: A time series analysis in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47: 683-693.
[14] Sims, C. A., Waggoner, D. F., and Zha, T. 2008. Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models. Journal of Econometrics, 146(2): 255-274.
[15] Türsoy, T. 2013. Forecasting Economic Growth Rate: the Case of North Cyprus, NEU Journal of Social Sciences, 6(1): 193-207.
[16] Tursoy, T., and Faisal, F. 2017. Validity of FH hypothesis in small isolated island economy: an application of the combined cointegration approach. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 1-11.
Non-Exclusive License under Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC BY 4.0):
This ‘Article’ is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which lets others distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon this article, even commercially, as long as they credit this article for the original creation. ASERS Publishing will be acknowledged as the first publisher of the Article and a link to the appropriate bibliographic citation (authors, article title, volume issue, page numbers, DOI, and the link to the Published Article on ASERS Publishing’ Platform) must be maintained.