OIL PRICE SHOCK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPERIENCE OF CEMAC COUNTRIES
Abstract
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of oil shocks on the growth rate of Growth Domestic Product (GDP) in CEMAC countries. We use a panel VAR model approach to the variation of the real GDP growth rate, oil price inflation rate and money supply between 2000 and 2015. Our main results show that CEMAC countries mostly depend on oil pension. Consequently, the analysis of impulsion response functions and the decomposition of variance show that, the shock on oil price negatively affects the growth rate of the GDP. We then suggest CEMAC countries to diversify their production, the destination of their exports and the sources of budgetary income or takings.
References
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[24] ThankGod O. Apere, and Ijomah, M.A. 2013. Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Price Lecels and Volatility in Nigeria, International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(4): 15-25, DOI: 10.6007/IJAREMS/v2-i4/48. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJAREMS/v2-i4/48
[2] Basnet, H.C., and Upadhyaya, K.P. 2015. Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Output, Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Selected ASEAN Countries,” Applied Economics, 47(29): 3078-3091. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1011322.
[3] Baumeister, C., and Peersman, G. 2013. Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on tne US Economy. American Economic Journal, 5(4): 1-28 (28).
[4] Berument, M. H. Nildag Basak Ceylan, B., and Nukhet, D. 2010. The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected mena Countries, Energy Journal, 31: 149-176 DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No1-7. Available at: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2362
[5] Besso, C. R., and Nembua, C. C. 2016. Analyse de la vulnérabilité macroéconomique de la zone franc, MPRA Workind Paper.
[6] Blanchard, O. J., and Gali, J. 2007. The Macroéconomic Effects of oil shocks: why are the 2000s so different from the 1970? International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press (February 2010), (pp 373-421).
[7] Cologni, A., and Manera, M. 2008. Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural cointegrated VAR Model for G7 Countries. Energy Policy, 30: 856-888. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.11.001
[8] Copinschi, P. 2015. Impact de la baisse du prix du pétrole sur les pays producteurs d’Afrique équatoriale (Cameroun, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon et Guinée équatoriale), Etude Prospective et Stratégique. DGRIS, 25 septembre 2015, N CHRONUS: 2013 1050 101741-EJ 1600018500.
[9] Hamilton, J. D. 1983. Oil and the Macroeconomic since World War II, Journal of Political Economy, 91: 228-248. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261140
[10] Hamilton, J. D. 1988. A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle, The Journal of Political Economy, 96: 593-617. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261553
[11] Hamilton, J. D. 1996. This Is What Happened To The Oil Price-Macroeconomic Relationship, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38: 215-220. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01282-2
[12] Hamilton, J. D. 2009. Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08, NBER Working Paper, N 15002.
[13] IMF Country Report, Article IV consultation-press release; staff report; and statement by the executive director for the republic of Equatorial Guinea. IMF Country Report N°16/341, November 2016.
[14] IMF Country Report, Central African Economic and Monetary Community. IMF Country Report N° 16/290, September 2016.
[15] IMF Country Report, Central African economic And Monetary Community (CEMAC). IMF Country Report N° 16/277, August 2016.
[16] IMF Country Report, Gabon. IMF Country Report N° 16/87. March 2016.
[17] IMF Country Report, Third and Fourth Reviews under the extended credit facility arrangement and request for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria, augmentation of access, extension of the current arrangement, and rephrasing of disbuesements-press release; staff report; and statement by the executive director for Chad. IMF Country Report N° 16/3664, November 2016.
[18] IMF, Afrique Subsaharienne: une croissance à deux vitesses. Perspectives économiques régionales, Etudes économiques et financières, octobre 2016.
[19] Lutz, K. 2008. A comparison of the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks on output and inflation in the G7 countries. Journal of the European Economics Association, 6: 78-121. DOI: 10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.1.78
[20] Mork, K. A. 1989. Oil and the Macroeconomic When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results, Journal of Political Economy, 97: 740-744.
[21] Nchor, D., Klepac, V., and Adamec, V., 2016. Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Ghanaian Economy, Acta Universitat is Agriculturae et Silviculture Mendeliana e Brunensis, n° 64(1): 315-324. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664010315
[22] Ozturk, F. 2015. Oil Price Shocks-Macro Economy relationship in turkey. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 5: 846-857. DOI:10.18488/journalaefr/2015.5.5/102.5.846.857
[23] Rasche, R.H. and Tatom, J. A. 1981. Energy Price Shocks, Aggregate Supply and Monetary Policy: The Theory and International Evidence, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 14: 9-93.
[24] ThankGod O. Apere, and Ijomah, M.A. 2013. Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Price Lecels and Volatility in Nigeria, International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(4): 15-25, DOI: 10.6007/IJAREMS/v2-i4/48. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJAREMS/v2-i4/48
Published
2017-06-30
How to Cite
BESSO, Christophe Raoul; FEUBI PAMEN, Erick Patrick.
OIL PRICE SHOCK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPERIENCE OF CEMAC COUNTRIES.
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 8, n. 1, p. 5-18, june 2017.
ISSN 2068-7710.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/1285>. Date accessed: 22 dec. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v8.1(15).01.
Section
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