THE NEXUS BETWEEN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND INFLATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES
Abstract
The aim of this article is to assess the empirical evidence of the nexus between public expenditure and inflation for the Mediterranean countries during the period 1970-2009, using a time-series approach. After a brief introduction, a concise survey of the economic literature on this issue is shown, before discussing the data and introducing some econometric techniques. Stationarity tests reveal, generally, that public expenditure/GDP ratio is a I(1) process, while prices index is a I(2) process. Moreover, a long-run relationship between the share of public expenditure and inflation is found for Cyprus, France, Greece and Portugal. Furthermore, Granger causality tests results show a short-run evidence of a directional flow from inflation to expenditure for Cyprus, France and Spain; and of a bidirectional flow for Italy, Malta and Portugal. Some notes on the policy implications of our empirical results conclude the paper.
References
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[42] Jackson, P. 1980. The Growth of the Relative Size of the Public Sector, in Currie, D., Peters, W. Contemporary Economics Analysis, vol. II, London: Croom Helm, 329-354.
[43] Jain, P.C. 1989. Economics of Public Finance, Vol. I, New Delhi: Atlantic Publishers.
[44] Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
[45] Johansen, S., Juselius, K. 1990. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
[46] Kelley, A.C. 1976. Demographic Change and the Size of the Government Sector. Southern Economic Journal, 3, 2, October, 1056-1066.
[47] Kia, A. 2006. Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors? Evidence from Iran. Journal of Asian Economics, 17, 879-903.
[48] Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., Shin, Y. 1992. Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
[49] Lamartina, S., Zaghini, A. 2008. Increasing Public Expenditures: Wagner’s Law in OECD Countries. Center for Financial Studies Working Papers, 13.
[50] Magazzino, C. 2008. Modelli interpretativi della dinamica della spesa pubblica e “curva di Armey”: il caso italiano, 1862-2001. Notizie di Politeia, XXIV, 92, 45-60.
[51]Magazzino, C. 2009a. Stima della spesa pubblica italiana secondo i modelli di Musgrave e Rostow e di O’Connor. Il Risparmio Review, LVII, 3, July-September, 59-84.
[52] Magazzino, C. 2009b. Spesa pubblica disaggregata e “Legge di Wagner”. Economia, Impresa e Mercati finanziari, 3, September-Decemeber, 7-31.
[53] Magazzino, C. 2009c. “Legge di Wagner” e spesa pubblica disaggregata: un approccio VAR. Economia Pubblica, 5-6, 133-156.
[54] Magazzino, C. 2010a. “Wagner’s Law” in Italy: Empirical Evidence from 1960 to 2008. Global & Local Economic Review, 2, January-June, 91-116.
[55] Magazzino, C. 2010b. Wagner’s Law and Augmented Wagner’s Law in EU-27, C.R.E.I. Working Papers, 05/2010,
http://host.uniroma3.it/centri/crei/pubblicazioni/workingpapers2010/wpCREI.05.2010.pdf.
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[57] Musgrave, R.A., Peacock, A.T. 1967. Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, London: Macmillan.
[58] Özatay, F. 1997. Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy, and Inflation Stabilization: The Case of Turkey. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19(6), 661-681.
[59] Patinkin, D. 1993. Israel’s stabilization program of 1985, Or some simple truths of monetary theory. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7 (2), 103-128.
[60] Peacock, A.T. Wiseman, J. 1961. The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom, National Bureau of Economic Research.
[61] Pechman, J.A., Mayer, T. 1952. Mr. Colin Clark on the Limits of Taxation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 34, 3, August, 232-242.
[62] Pekarski, S. 2010. Budget deficits and inflation feedback. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.
[63] Phillips, P.C.B., Perron, P. 1988.Testing for a unit root in a time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
[64] Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff, K.S. 2010. Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, May.
[65] Ricardo, D. 1817. On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, London: J. Murray.
[66] Rostow, W.W. 1971. Politics and the Stages of Growth, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
[67] Ruge-Murcia, F.J. 1999. Government expenditure and the dynamic of high inflation. Journal of Development Economics, 58, 333-358.
[68] Samuelson, P.A. 1964. Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems. Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (2), 145-154.
[69] Scully, G.W. 1994. What Is the Optimal Size of Government in the United States? National Centre for Policy Analysis - Policy Report, 188.
[70] Shelton, C.A. 2007. The Size and Composition of Government Expenditure, Wesleyan Economic Working Papers, 2, January.
[71] Stein, E., Talvi, E., Grisanti, A. 1998. Institutional arrangements and fiscal performance: the Latin American experience, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of the Chief Economist Working Paper, 367, February.
[72] Stiglitz, J.E. 2003. Economics of the Public Sector, W.W. Norton & Company.
[73] Tanzi, V., Blejer, M.I., Teijeiro, M.O. 1987. Inflation and the Measurement of Fiscal Deficits. Staff Papers – International Monetary Fund, 34, 4, December, 711-738.
[74] Varvarigos, D. 2010. Inflation, volatile public spending, and endogenously sustained growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 34, 1893-1906.
[75] Wagner, A.H. 1912. Les fondements de l’economie politique, Paris: Girard & Brière, vol. III.
[2]Alavirad, A. 2003. The effect of inflation on government revenue and expenditure: the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran. OPEC Review, December, 331-341.
[3]Andrews, D., Zivot, E. 1992. Further evidence on the Great Crash, the oil price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251-270.
[4]Armey, R. 1995. The Freedom Revolution, Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing Co.
[5] Balassa, B. 1964. The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal. Journal of Political Economy, 72 (6), 584-596.
[6] Barro, R.J. 1974. Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? Journal of Political Economy, LXXXII, 1095-1175.
[7] Barro, R.J. 1989. The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3 (2), Spring.
[8] Barro, R.J. 1989. A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving and Government, NBER Working Paper, 2855.
[9] Barro, R.J. 1990. Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 103-125.
[10] Baumol, W.J. 1967. Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crisis. American Economic Review, June, 57(3), 415-426.
[11] Bernstein, E.M. 1936. Public Expenditures, Prices, and the National Income. Southern Economic Journal, 2, 3, January, 34-46.
[12] Brennan, G., Buchanan, J. 1980. The power to tax: Analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
[13] Buiter, W.H. 1988. Can Public Spending Cuts Be Inflationary? NBER Working Paper, 2528, March.
[14] Bullock, C.J. 1934. Inflation by Public Expenditure. Review of Economics and Statistics, 16, 10, October, 213-216.
[15] Briotti, M.G. 2005. Economic Reactions to Public Finance Consolidation: A Survey of the Literature. European Central Bank Occasional Papers, 38, October.
[16] Brosio, G., Marchese, C. 1986. Il potere di spendere. Economia e storia della spesa pubblica dall’Unificazione ad oggi, Bologna: il Mulino.
[17] Clark, C.1964. Taxmanship: Principles and Proposals for the Reform of Taxation, Hobart Paper, 26, Institute of Economic Affairs, London.
[18] Clark, C.1945. Public Finances and Changes in the Value of Money. Economic Journal, December, 371-389.
[19] Clark, C.1937. National Income at Its Climax. Economic Journal, June, 47, 186, 308-320.
[20] Clark, C. 1933. The National Income and the Theory of Production. Economic Journal, 1933, June, 43, 170, 205-216.
[21] Clemente, J., Moñtanés, A., Reyes, M. 1998. Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters, 59, 175-182.
[22] Dalena, M., Magazzino, C. 2010. Public expenditure and revenue in Italy, 1862-1993, MPRA Paper, 27658, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27658/.
[23] De Viti De Marco A. 1893. La pressione tributaria dell’imposta e del prestito. Giornale degli Economisti, s. II, a. IV, Vol. VI, January, 38-67.
[24] De Viti De Marco A. 1898. Saggi di economia e finanza. Giornale degli Economisti, 61-123.
[25] De Viti De Marco A. 1934. Principii di economia finanziaria. Torino: Einaudi.
[26] Diba, B. 1982. A Note on Public Sector Growth: a Real Perspective. Public Finance, 37, 114-119.
[27] Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A. 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
[28] Easterly, W., Rebelo, S. 1993. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: an Empirical Investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 417-458.
[29] Einaudi, L. 2004. Il buongoverno. Saggi di economia e politica (1897-1954). Roma-Bari: Laterza.
[30] Eltis, W. 1983. The Interconnection Between Public Expenditure and Inflation in Britain. The American Economic Review, 73, 2, May, 291-296.
[31] Ezirim, B.C., Muoghalu, M.I. 2006. Explaining the Size of Public Expenditure in Less Developed Countries: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Nigeria, ABSU Journal of Management Sciences, 2, 2, September, 134-154.
[32] Ezirim, B.C., Muoghalu, M.I., Elike, U. 2008. Inflation versus Public Expenditure Growth in the US: an Empirical Investigation. North American Journal of Finance and Banking Research, 2, 2.
[33] Ezirim, B.C., Ofurum, C.O. 2003. Public Expenditure Growth and Inflation in Developed and Less Developed Countries. Nigerian Business and Social Review, 2, 1, January, 75-94.
[34]Ferris, J.S., West, E.G. 1996. Testing Theories of Real Government Size: U.S. Experience. Southern Economic Journal, 62, 3, January, 537-553.
[35] Florio, M., Colautti, S. 2001. A logistic growth law for government expenditures: an explanatory analysis, Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Aziendale – Working Paper, Università degli Studi di Milano, 13, June.
[36] Forte, F., Magazzino, C. 2010. Optimal size of government and economic growth in EU-27, MPRA Paper, 26669, http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/26669.html.
[37] Fossati, A. 1981. La spesa pubblica in Italia dal 1951 al 1980. Rivista di Diritto Finanziario e Scienza delle Finanze, 3, XL, 322-375.
[38] Fossati, A. 1999. Economia pubblica. Elementi per un’analisi economica dell’intervento pubblico, Milano: FrancoAngeli.
[39] Giarda, P.D. 1988. Una interpretazione della crescita della spesa pubblica in Italia: 1952-1987. Rivista Bancaria, XLIV, 11-12, November-December.
[40] Granger, C.W.J. 1969. Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
[41] Hadjimatheou, G. 1976. On the Empirical Evidence on Government Expenditure Development. Public Finance, 31, 144-148.
[42] Jackson, P. 1980. The Growth of the Relative Size of the Public Sector, in Currie, D., Peters, W. Contemporary Economics Analysis, vol. II, London: Croom Helm, 329-354.
[43] Jain, P.C. 1989. Economics of Public Finance, Vol. I, New Delhi: Atlantic Publishers.
[44] Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
[45] Johansen, S., Juselius, K. 1990. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
[46] Kelley, A.C. 1976. Demographic Change and the Size of the Government Sector. Southern Economic Journal, 3, 2, October, 1056-1066.
[47] Kia, A. 2006. Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors? Evidence from Iran. Journal of Asian Economics, 17, 879-903.
[48] Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., Shin, Y. 1992. Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
[49] Lamartina, S., Zaghini, A. 2008. Increasing Public Expenditures: Wagner’s Law in OECD Countries. Center for Financial Studies Working Papers, 13.
[50] Magazzino, C. 2008. Modelli interpretativi della dinamica della spesa pubblica e “curva di Armey”: il caso italiano, 1862-2001. Notizie di Politeia, XXIV, 92, 45-60.
[51]Magazzino, C. 2009a. Stima della spesa pubblica italiana secondo i modelli di Musgrave e Rostow e di O’Connor. Il Risparmio Review, LVII, 3, July-September, 59-84.
[52] Magazzino, C. 2009b. Spesa pubblica disaggregata e “Legge di Wagner”. Economia, Impresa e Mercati finanziari, 3, September-Decemeber, 7-31.
[53] Magazzino, C. 2009c. “Legge di Wagner” e spesa pubblica disaggregata: un approccio VAR. Economia Pubblica, 5-6, 133-156.
[54] Magazzino, C. 2010a. “Wagner’s Law” in Italy: Empirical Evidence from 1960 to 2008. Global & Local Economic Review, 2, January-June, 91-116.
[55] Magazzino, C. 2010b. Wagner’s Law and Augmented Wagner’s Law in EU-27, C.R.E.I. Working Papers, 05/2010,
http://host.uniroma3.it/centri/crei/pubblicazioni/workingpapers2010/wpCREI.05.2010.pdf.
[56] Musgrave, R.A. 1969. Fiscal Systems, New Haven: Yale University Press.
[57] Musgrave, R.A., Peacock, A.T. 1967. Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, London: Macmillan.
[58] Özatay, F. 1997. Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy, and Inflation Stabilization: The Case of Turkey. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19(6), 661-681.
[59] Patinkin, D. 1993. Israel’s stabilization program of 1985, Or some simple truths of monetary theory. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7 (2), 103-128.
[60] Peacock, A.T. Wiseman, J. 1961. The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom, National Bureau of Economic Research.
[61] Pechman, J.A., Mayer, T. 1952. Mr. Colin Clark on the Limits of Taxation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 34, 3, August, 232-242.
[62] Pekarski, S. 2010. Budget deficits and inflation feedback. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.
[63] Phillips, P.C.B., Perron, P. 1988.Testing for a unit root in a time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
[64] Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff, K.S. 2010. Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, May.
[65] Ricardo, D. 1817. On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, London: J. Murray.
[66] Rostow, W.W. 1971. Politics and the Stages of Growth, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
[67] Ruge-Murcia, F.J. 1999. Government expenditure and the dynamic of high inflation. Journal of Development Economics, 58, 333-358.
[68] Samuelson, P.A. 1964. Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems. Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (2), 145-154.
[69] Scully, G.W. 1994. What Is the Optimal Size of Government in the United States? National Centre for Policy Analysis - Policy Report, 188.
[70] Shelton, C.A. 2007. The Size and Composition of Government Expenditure, Wesleyan Economic Working Papers, 2, January.
[71] Stein, E., Talvi, E., Grisanti, A. 1998. Institutional arrangements and fiscal performance: the Latin American experience, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of the Chief Economist Working Paper, 367, February.
[72] Stiglitz, J.E. 2003. Economics of the Public Sector, W.W. Norton & Company.
[73] Tanzi, V., Blejer, M.I., Teijeiro, M.O. 1987. Inflation and the Measurement of Fiscal Deficits. Staff Papers – International Monetary Fund, 34, 4, December, 711-738.
[74] Varvarigos, D. 2010. Inflation, volatile public spending, and endogenously sustained growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 34, 1893-1906.
[75] Wagner, A.H. 1912. Les fondements de l’economie politique, Paris: Girard & Brière, vol. III.
Published
2011-06-30
How to Cite
MAGAZZINO, Cosimo.
THE NEXUS BETWEEN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND INFLATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES.
Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, [S.l.], v. 2, n. 1, p. 89-101, june 2011.
ISSN 2068-7710.
Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/1113>. Date accessed: 16 apr. 2024.
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