Economic Problems of Quarantine Infections
Abstract
Predictably, the fall in world gross domestic product (GDP) will be at least 4.2% due to restrictive measures in connection with the COVID-19 spread. The global economic crisis has not yet been overcome, and if the second pandemic wave occurs, its consequences can be even more disastrous. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, all countries will suffer, though the GDP reduction will be different, depending on the individual states’ previous economic situation. It seems important to compare different countries` economic losses depending on their economic model. Germany will be considered as a country with a developed economy, Russia and China – as transition economy countries and India – as a developing one. The results of studying such pandemics impact on various countries’ economies can be used in choosing the optimal answer to possible pandemics in the future.
References
[2] Carter, A. 2020. 8 changes affecting expats in Germany. Expat Info, News, https://www.iamexpat.de/expat-info/german-expat-news/june-2020-8-changes-affecting-expats-germany.
[3] Central Bank. 2020. The Russian economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic faced an unprecedented shock. Prime, https://1prime.ru/state_regulation/20200528/831532645.html.
[4] Choudhury S.R. 2020. India announces $22.5 billion stimulus package to help those affected by the lockdown, Asia Economy. 26 March 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-india-needs-a-support-package-larger-than-20-billion-dollars.html.
[5] Cordell, J. 2020. Russia’s Economic Woes Continue to Mount During Coronavirus Outbreak. The Moscow Times. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/06/russias-economic-woes-continue-to-mount-during-coronavirus-outbreak-a70202.
[6] Evdokimova, T. 2020. E-Markets Three scenarios for the Russian economy. https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/56882/three-scenarios-for-the-russian-economy/.
[7] Gopinath G. 2020. The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn since the Great Depression. IMF Blog - Insights Analysis on Economics and Finance, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression.
[8] Horn S., Reinhart С., Trebesch С. 2020. China’s overseas lending and the looming developing country debt crisis, Vox, СEPR Policy Portal. 4 May. https://voxeu.org/article/china-s-overseas-lending-and-looming-developing-country-debt-crisis.
[9] Huang Y., Chen L., Wang P., Xu Z. 2020. Saving China from the coronavirus and economic meltdown: Experiences and lessons. VOX CEPR Policy Portal 23 March, https://voxeu.org/article/saving-china-coronavirus-and-economic-meltdown-experiences-and-lessons.
[10] Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021, Congressional Budget Office, May 2020. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56368
[11] Jun, X. 2020. Budget deficit rate might break ‘safety line’ 3% in 2020. Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1179759.shtml.
[12] Laura H. 2020. China's economy just shrank for the first time in decades. It could still eke out growth this year. CNN Business. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/16/economy/china-economy-gdp/index.html.
[13] Laura, H. 2020. China's economy just shrank for the first time in decades. It could still eke out growth this year. CNN Business, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/16/economy/china-economy-gdp/index.html.
[14] Minister Altmaier. 2020. Unprecedentad support programme for employees and enterprises. Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Pressemitteilungen/2020/20200327-altmaier-unprecedented-support-programme-for-employees-and-enterprises.html%0bct-gdp-in-germany/.
[15] Ministry of Economic Development named the time frame for the economy to return to the pre-crisis level. RBC. 2020. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/21/05/2020/5ec680839a7947c0c460eda1/.
[16] Ministry of Economic Development named the timeframe for the economy to return to the pre-crisis level. RBC. 2020. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/21/05/2020/5ec680839a7947c0c460eda1.
[17] Mishra A.R. 2020. Covid-19 pulls down India's exports by 34.6% in March; trade deficit narrows to $9.8 bn, Livemint. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-trade-deficit-narrows-to-9-8-bn-in-march-exports-dip-34-6-11586955282193.html.
[18] Mishra D. 2020. 54% face loss in income, 67% cut spends: Survey, The Economics Times. 4 May. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/54-face-loss-in-income-67-cut-spends-survey/articleshow/75527395.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst.
[19] Misikhina, S. 2020. Who was Putin talking about? https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/05/14/they-will-have-money-for-one-month-of-groceries.
[20] Nahata P. 2020. IIP: India’s Industrial Production Contracts 55.5% In April, Bloomberg. 12 June. https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/iip-indias-industrial-production-contracts-the-most-in-over-two-decades.
[21] Plecher H. 2020. Germany’s budget balance in relation to GDP 2021. Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/624187/germany-budget-balance-in-relation-to-gdp/.
[22] Plecher H. 2020. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in France 2021. Statista, 5 May, https://www.statista.com/statistics/263604/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-france/.
[23] Plecher H. 2020. Gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany 2021. Statista, 5 May, https://www.statista.com/statistics/375206/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-germany/.
[24] Plecher H. 2020. Russia: Unemployment rate from 1999 to 2019. Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/263712/unemployment-in-russia/.
[25] Plecher, H. 2020. Budget balance in Russia in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) 2021. Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/271356/budget-balance-in-russia-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/.
[26] Qiaoyi, Li. 2020. China’s 2020 fiscal deficit target to exceed 3%: economist. Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1188403.shtml.
[27] Simola, H. 2020. Russian economy hit by COVID-19 and oil market turmoiI. Bank of Finland Bulletin, https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/blogs/2020/russian-economy-hit-by-covid-19-and-oil-market-turmoil/.
[28] Textor C. 2020. Unemployment rate in China 2012-2021. Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/270320/unemployment-rate-in-china/.
[29] The Central Bank made the first official forecast for the fall of Russia's GDP in 2020. The Bank of Russia made an assumption of a 6% economy collapse and the first since the 90s balance- of -payments deficit. RBC. 2020. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/24/04/2020/5ea19aff9a7947282c785981.
[30] The Global Economic Outlook During The COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World // The World Bank. Feature Story. 08 June 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-changed-world.
[31] The Global Economic Outlook During The COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World // The World Bank. Feature Story. 08 June 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-changed-world.
[32] Wang, O. 2020. China 2020 GDP forecasts left unchanged as size of Beijing stimulus disappoints. Scmp, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3086145/china-2020-gdp-forecasts-left-unchanged-size-beijing-stimulus.
[33] World Economic Outlook Database. 2020. IMF.org. International Monetary Fund. (Retrieved 22 April 2020).
The Copyright Transfer Form to ASERS Publishing (The Publisher)
This form refers to the manuscript, which an author(s) was accepted for publication and was signed by all the authors.
The undersigned Author(s) of the above-mentioned Paper here transfer any and all copyright-rights in and to The Paper to The Publisher. The Author(s) warrants that The Paper is based on their original work and that the undersigned has the power and authority to make and execute this assignment. It is the author's responsibility to obtain written permission to quote material that has been previously published in any form. The Publisher recognizes the retained rights noted below and grants to the above authors and employers for whom the work performed royalty-free permission to reuse their materials below. Authors may reuse all or portions of the above Paper in other works, excepting the publication of the paper in the same form. Authors may reproduce or authorize others to reproduce the above Paper for the Author's personal use or for internal company use, provided that the source and The Publisher copyright notice are mentioned, that the copies are not used in any way that implies The Publisher endorsement of a product or service of an employer, and that the copies are not offered for sale as such. Authors are permitted to grant third party requests for reprinting, republishing or other types of reuse. The Authors may make limited distribution of all or portions of the above Paper prior to publication if they inform The Publisher of the nature and extent of such limited distribution prior there to. Authors retain all proprietary rights in any process, procedure, or article of manufacture described in The Paper. This agreement becomes null and void if and only if the above paper is not accepted and published by The Publisher, or is with drawn by the author(s) before acceptance by the Publisher.