Modeling of Convergence of the Economic System of Ukraine with G20 Countries Based on the Analysis of Structural Changes in Ukrainian Foreign Trade
Abstract
In the article various theories of convergence of economic systems were considered. Mathematical modeling of the convergence of economic systems was carried out taking into account structural changes in foreign trade. An assessment of the degree of convergence of the economic system of Ukraine was made. The indicators of G20 countries were chosen as the reference economic system for assessing the degree of convergence. On the basis of the calculations of the correlation coefficients and the construction of regression models, it is proved that the valuation assumptions regarding the inclusion of the pieces of information in the model are feasible. A complex mathematical model for assessing the convergence of the developing economic system of Ukraine with the G20 economic systems is proposed. Conclusions about the short-term and long-term prospects for the development of Ukraine’s GDP were made, the measures necessary for the positive development of GDP in each of the prospects were proposed.
References
[2] Chetyrkin, E.M. 1995. Methods of financial and commercial calculations. Delo.
[3] Clark, J.B. 2005. The Distribution of Wealth: A Theory of Wages, Interest and Profit. Cossimo.
[4] COMSTAT. 2018. GDP per Capita by Country/Statistics from IMF, 1980–2023. http://comstat.comesa.int/pjeqzh/gdp-per-capita-by-country-statistics-from-imf-1980-2023.
[5] De Boor, C. 1978. A Practical Guide to Splines. Springer-Verlag.
[6] Dervis, K. 2012. World Economy: convergence, divergence and interdependence. Finance and Development 49(3): 10-14.
[7] Ellul, J. 2018. The Technological System. Wipf and Stock Publishers.
[8] Foreign trade in goods (in accordance with KPB6), https://bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=19208314
[9] Galbraith, J.K. 2015. The New Industrial State. Princeton University Press.
[10] Gmurman, V.E. 2004. Theory of Probability and Mathematical Statistics. Vysshayashkola.
[11] Harrod, R.F. 1939. An assay in dynamic theory. The Economic Journal 49(193): 14–33.
[12] Kaldiyarov, A., Kaldiyarov, D.A., Nardin, D.S., Nardina, S.A. 2016. Process approach to managing real investment projects focused on import substitution of products. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences 11(7): 1368-1375.
[13] Kaldiyarov, D.A., Baltabayeva, A.M., Bedelbayeva, A.E. 2017. Competent role of anti-crisis management in the development of economy in Kazakhstan. Espacios 38(48): 20.
[14] Kaldiyarov, D.A., et al. 2017. Cooperation of small forms of managing in agro-industrial sector in Kazakhstan. Espacios 38(62): 13.
[15] Mazilescu, C.-A., Gangloff, B. 2017. Social utility and desirability of internal and external employees: Insights for collaboration at work. Psihologia Resurselor Umane 15(1): 69-79.
[16] McConnell, C.R., Brue, S.L., Flynn, S.M. 2009. Economics: Principles, Problems, and Policies. McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
[17] Mishchenko, S.V. 2009. Financial crisis influence upon realization of monetary policy by central banks. Actual Problems of Economics 9(99): 209-218.
[18] Mishchenko, V., Naumenkova, S., Ivanov, V., Tishchenko, I. 2018a. Special aspects of using hybrid financial tools for project risk management inUkraine. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(2): 257-266.
[19] Mishchenko, V., Naumenkova, S., Mishchenko, S., Ivanov, V. 2018b. Inflation and economic growth: The search for a compromise for the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Banks and Bank Systems 13(2): 153-163.
[20] Polyakova, Ya. A. 2014. The principles of the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the monetary system in international business. Problems of theEconomy 1: 37–42.
[21] Rostow, W.W. 1990. The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. Cambridge University Press.
[22] Sato, R. 1964. The Harrod-Domar model vs the neo-classical growth model. The Economic Journal 74(294): 380–387.
[23] Schwab, K. 2018. The Global Competitiveness Report 2017–2018. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2017-2018/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2017%E2%80%932018.pdf.
[24] Shtal, T.V., et al. 2018. Formalization of the enterprise international economic activity efficiency management. Utopia y Praxis Latino americana 23(82): 64-82.
[25] Solow, R.M. 1956. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 70(1): 65–94.
[26] StateServiceofUkraine. 2018. Ukrainian Classification of Goods of Foreign Economic Activity. http://sfs.gov.ua/baneryi/mitne-oformlennya/subektam-zed/klasifikatsiya-tovariv/63603.html.
[27] State Statistics Service of Ukraine. 2018. Foreign trade of certain types of goods by countries of the world. https://ukrstat.org/uk/operativ/operativ2018/zd/e_iovt/arh_iovt2018.htm.
[28] State Statistics Service of Ukraine. 2018. Key indicators of the labor market (annual data).http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2007/rp/ean/ean_u/osp_rik_b_07u.htm.
[29] State Statistics Service of Ukraine. 2018.The employed population by types of economic activity in 2012–2017. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2014/rp/zn_ed/zn_ed_u/zn_ed_2013_u.htm.
[30] Statista. 2018. Ukraine: Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from 2012 to 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/296152/ukraine-gross-domestic-product-per-capita/.
[31] The State Statistics Service of Ukraine. 2018. Average monthly wages by type of economic activity since the beginning of the year. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2005/gdn/Zarp_ek_p/Zp_ek_p_u/arh_zpp_u.htm.
[32] The State Statistics Service of Ukraine. 2018. Capital investment by type of assets for 2010-2017 years. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2013/ibd/ibd_rik/ibd_u/ki_rik_u_bez.htm.
[33] TheState Statistics Service of Ukraine. 2018. Export-import of goods by countries of the world. https://ukrstat.org/uk/operativ/operativ2016/zd/e_iovt/arh_iovt2016.htm.
[34] The World Bank. 2018. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD.
[35] The World Bank. 2018. GDP (current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2017&start=2013.
[36] Tinbergen, J. 1952. On the Theory of Economic Policy. North-Holland Publishing Company.
[37] Toffler, A. 1980. The Third Wave. Bantam Books.
[38] United Nations Development Programme. 2016. Human Development Report. 2016. http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/2016_human_development_report.pdf.
[39] Uskenbayeva, R.K., Bektemyssova, G.B., Kurmangaliyeva, B.K., Yedilkhan, D. 2015a. Development of the business process for national companies of Kazakhstan with the integration of the project 'E-Government. 2015 54th Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers of Japan, SICE 2015, 7285454: 724-727.
[40] Uskenbayeva, R.K., Kurmangaliyeva, B.K., Yedilkhan, D. 2015b. Situational management for process implementation of working operations of the business process. 2015 54th Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers of Japan, SICE 2015, 7285573: 292-297.
[41] Uskenbayeva, R.K., Kurmangaliyeva, B.K., Yedilkhan, D., Kassymova, A.B. 2015c. Principles for achieving the optimal performance of the input tasks flow of a business process and optimal performance of the business process. 2015 54th Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers of Japan, SICE 2015, 7285562: 728-733.
[42] WITS. 2018. Saudi Arabia Exports of goods and services current US$ 2012–2015. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/SAU/StartYear/2012/EndYear/2015/Indicator/NE-EXP-GNFS-CD.
The Copyright Transfer Form to ASERS Publishing (The Publisher)
This form refers to the manuscript, which an author(s) was accepted for publication and was signed by all the authors.
The undersigned Author(s) of the above-mentioned Paper here transfer any and all copyright-rights in and to The Paper to The Publisher. The Author(s) warrants that The Paper is based on their original work and that the undersigned has the power and authority to make and execute this assignment. It is the author's responsibility to obtain written permission to quote material that has been previously published in any form. The Publisher recognizes the retained rights noted below and grants to the above authors and employers for whom the work performed royalty-free permission to reuse their materials below. Authors may reuse all or portions of the above Paper in other works, excepting the publication of the paper in the same form. Authors may reproduce or authorize others to reproduce the above Paper for the Author's personal use or for internal company use, provided that the source and The Publisher copyright notice are mentioned, that the copies are not used in any way that implies The Publisher endorsement of a product or service of an employer, and that the copies are not offered for sale as such. Authors are permitted to grant third party requests for reprinting, republishing or other types of reuse. The Authors may make limited distribution of all or portions of the above Paper prior to publication if they inform The Publisher of the nature and extent of such limited distribution prior there to. Authors retain all proprietary rights in any process, procedure, or article of manufacture described in The Paper. This agreement becomes null and void if and only if the above paper is not accepted and published by The Publisher, or is with drawn by the author(s) before acceptance by the Publisher.