Methodological Aspects of Forecasting Skilled Labor in Context of Innovation Transformations (of the Russian Economy)

  • A. I. GRETCHENKO Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
  • E. F. NIKITSKAYA Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
  • A. A. GRETCHENKO Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
  • O. G. DEMENKO Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation


Innovation forecasting objectively determines the ways of a state’s development based on the global technological mainstream, long-term national goals, capacities and limitations for reaching them, planning of concrete actions for the future. A key role in creation of strategic trends of formation of an innovation economy is played by the human capital development, based on systematic analysis of the practice of forecasting the economy’s demand for skilled labor from a professional qualification viewpoint. The article presents an analytical overview of methodology, modern international experience and Russian practice of forecasting the economy’s demands for skilled labor from the standpoint of labor market development in conditions of development of innovation processes.

This study was financed by a grant from the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.


[1] Akhmadeev, B.A., and Manakhov, S.V. 2015. Effective and sustainable cooperation between start-ups, venture investors, and corporations. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 5(2), 269–285.
[2] Alchian, A. 1950. Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory. Journal of political economy, 58(3), 211-221.
[3] Aron, R. 2007. History of the 20th Century: Anthology. (L.G.Larionova, Trans.). Moscow: Ladomir: 1103.
[4] Demenko, O.G., Makarova, I.G. and Konysheva, M.V. 2017. The Origin and Development of Municipal Self-government in Russia Serials Publications. Man In India, 97(20), 381-390.
[5] Dezhina, I.G. 2008. Gosudarstvo, naukaibiznes v innovatsionnoysistemeRossii [State, science and business in the innovation system of Russia]. Moscow: IEPP: 225.
[6] Gretchenko, A.A. 2016. Nauchno-issledovatelskie universitetskie klastery: opyt Evraziyskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza [Scientific and research university clusters: the experience of the Eurasian Economic Union]: monograph. Moscow: RUSCIENCE: 106.
[7] Gretchenko, A.A., and Gretchenko, A.I. 2016. Formirovanie nauchno-issledovatelskikh universitetskikh klasterov v ramkakh Evraziyskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza [Formation of research university clusters within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union]. Problemy sovremennoy ekonomik, 4 (60), 216-219.
[8] Gretchenko, A.A., Gretchenko, A.I., Demenko, O.G., and Gorokhova, I.V. 2017. Fostering innovative integrated structures in Russian higher education institutions. Espacios 38 (40), 15.
[9] Kondratiev, N.D. 2002. Bolshie tsiklykonyunkturyiteoriyapredvideniya. [Large cycles of conjuncture and theory of foresight]. Moscow: Ekonomika: 765.
[10] Krayukhin, G.A. 2011. Innovatsionnoye razvitie promyshlennikh predpriyatiy na osnove upravleniya izmeneniyami [Innovative development of industrial enterprises based on change management]: monograph. Saint-Petersburg: SPbGIEU: 133.
[11] Kuzyk, B.N., Kushlin, B.I., Petrov, A.A., and Yakovets, Y.V. 2006. Prognoz innovatsionno-teknologicheskoy i strukturnoy dinamiki ekonomiki Rossii na period do 2030 g. s uchetom mirovikh tendentsiy [Forecast of innovation-technological and structural dynamics of the Russian economy for the period up to 2030, taking into account world trends]. Moscow: Institut ekonomiche skikh strategiy: 48.
[12] Lukiyanova, M.N. 2014. The Organizational Design of the Urban Management System: Russian Phenomenon. World Applied Sciences Journal 30 (12), 1816-1820.
[13] Lukiyanova, M.N., Nikitskaya, E.F., and Sedova, N.V. 2017. Concept and Model of Local Self-Government Using Organizational Design and Public Communications. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, 3(25), 887 – 898.
[14] Lvov, D.S. 2006. Russia’s Mission (Civil Manifesto). Moscow: Institute of Economic Strategies: 56.
[15] Metodicheskie rekomendatsii i materialy po razrabotke prognoza nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo i sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii do 2030 [Methodical recommendations and materials on the development of the forecast of scientific, technological and socio-economic development of Russia to 2030]. MaterialysektsiyKoordinatsionnogosovetaRossiyskoyakademiinaukpoprognozirovaniyu. 2010. Moscow: INES. (accessed November 25, 2017).
[16] Mindeli, L.E. 2012. Nauchno-tekhnicheskiy potentsial Rossii. Institut problem razvitiya nauki Rossiyskoy akademii nauk [Scientific and technical potential of Russia. Institute for the Development of Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. Moscow: Granitsa: 280
[17] Mirovie nauchno-tekhnologicheskie prioritety [World scientific and technological priorities]. (accessed November 25, 2017).
[18] Moiseev, N.A. 2017. Forecasting time series of economic processes by model averaging across data frames of various lengths. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 87 (17), 3111-3131.
[19] Moiseev, N.A. 2017. p-Value adjustment to control type I errors in linear regression models. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 87 (9), 1701-1711.
[20] Moiseev, N.A., and Akhmadeev, B.A. 2017. Agent-based simulation of wealth, capital and asset distribution on stock markets. Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, 29 (2), 176-196.
[21] Morgunov, E.V. 2011. Metod Forsait i ego rol’ v upravlenii tekhnologicheskim razvitiem strany: glavy kollektivnoy monografii ‘Problemy razvitiya rynochnoy ekonomiki’ [The Foresight method and its role in the management of the country's technological development: heads of the collective monograph ‘Problems of the development of a market economy’]. Moscow. TsEMI RAN, pp. 97-113.
[22] Nikitskaya, E.F. 2013. Territorialnie subyekty rynka kak kompleksnye institutsionalnye struktury innovatsionnoy ekonomiki [Territorial subjects of the market as complex institutional structures of innovative economy]. Transportnoyedelo, 5, 129-131.
[23] North, D. (n.d.) Contribution of Neoconstitutionalism to Understanding of Problems of Transfer Economy. (accessed November 25, 2017). //
[24] Oslo Manual: Guidelines for Collecting and Interpreting Innovation Data, 3rd Edition. Joint publication by the OECD and Eurostat. 2010. Moscow: 106.
[25] Oveshnikova L.V., et al. 2017. Using Foresight Methods for Attracting Investments into National Economy. Overcoming Uncertainty of Institutional Environment as a Tool of Global Crisis Management, 2017, 303- 313.
[26] Parnes H.S. 1962. Forecasting Educational Needs for Economic and Social Development, Paris: OECD.
[27] Rostow W.W. 1971. Politics and the Stages of Growth. Cambridge University Press: 424.
[28] Schumpeter, J. 2007.Theory of economic development. Moscow: Eksmo: 86
[29] Sibirskaya, E.V., Khokhlova, O.A., Oveshnikova, L.V., and Tulinova E.I. 2017. Statistical Research of Voluntary Medical Insurance. Russia and the European Union Development and Perspectives. Springer International Publishing: 289 -299.
[30] Tinbergen, J., and Bos, H.C. (1965). A Planning Model for the Educational Requirements of Economic Development, in OECD, Econometric Models of education. Paris: OECD.
[31] Walker, J. 1968. Trends in manpower management research. Business Horizons, 11(4), 36 — 46.
How to Cite
GRETCHENKO, A. I. et al. Methodological Aspects of Forecasting Skilled Labor in Context of Innovation Transformations (of the Russian Economy). Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, [S.l.], v. 9, n. 2, p. 489-500, dec. 2018. ISSN 2068-696X. Available at: <>. Date accessed: 22 mar. 2023. doi: 2(32).13.