Forecasting Mortality for Kazakhstan Using the Lee-Carter Model

  • Akzharkyn KNYKOVA Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
  • Azat SAPIN JSC ‘Subsidiary of Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan Life Insurance Company ‘Halyk-Life’, Kazakhstan

Abstract

The Lee-Carter Model is one of the most popular methodologies for forecasting mortality rates. The model has been used very successfully in the U.S. and several other countries. The purpose of this paper is to develop general and sex-specific mortality forecasting model using historical mortality data for Kazakhstan from 1999 to 2015, based on the statistical time series techniques attributed to Lee, and Carter (1992). The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is used to estimate the model’s parameters and the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) is used to forecast general and sex-specific mortality rates for the time period from 2016 to 2021. Also forecasted values of life expectancy are obtained for both males and females using forecasts of mortality rates.

References

[1] Kudryavtsev, A.A. 1996. Demographic basis of life insurance. Institute of Insurance.
[2] Lee, R.D., and Carter, L.R. 1992. Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, pp. 659-671.
[3] Haberman, S., and Russolillo, M. 2005. Lee Carter MortalityForecasting: Application to the Italian Population. Cass Business School.
[4] Jenny Zheng Wang. 2007. Fitting and Forecasting Mortality for Sweden: Applying the Lee-Carter Model. Mathematical Statistics Stockholm University.
[5] Wilmoth, J.R. 1995. Are Mortality Rates Falling at Extremely High Ages: An Investigation Based on a Model Proposed by Coale and Kisker. Population Studies, Volume 49, Issue 2 (Jul., 1995), pp. 281-295.
[6] Aberathna, W., Lakshman Alles, Wickremasinghe, W.N., and Isuru, Hewapathirana. 2014. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. (15-3).
[7] Koissi, M.C., Shapiro, A.F., Högnäs, G. 2006. Evaluating and extending the Lee–Carter model for mortality forecasting: Bootstrap confidence interval. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Volume 38, Issue 1, 24 February 2006, pp. 1–20.
[8] Ansley Coale, Guang Guo. 1989. Revised Regional Model Life Tables at Very Low Levels of Mortality. Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 4 (Winter, 1989), pp. 613-643.
Published
2017-09-30
How to Cite
KNYKOVA, Akzharkyn; SAPIN, Azat. Forecasting Mortality for Kazakhstan Using the Lee-Carter Model. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, [S.l.], v. 8, n. 6, p. 1798-1811, sep. 2017. ISSN 2068-696X. Available at: <https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jarle/article/view/1831>. Date accessed: 25 feb. 2024.